Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 this thing is/will be up in the 8/4/08, 8/23/07, 6/18/09 category for awhile, curious to see how long it lasts. def one of, if not the best looking bow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Right where the Derecho composit is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559... VALID 270148Z - 270345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559 CONTINUES. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 04Z AND BEYOND AS BOW ECHO SYSTEM MOVES EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL IA. A WELL ORGANIZED MCS WITH BOW ECHO AND COMMA HEAD EXTENDS FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO SERN NEB. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHERE INFLOW FROM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /4000+ MLCAPE/ WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG A SSWLY 30+ KT LLJ. AVERAGE SPEED OF THE LINE IS AROUND 45 KT...BUT THE APEX OF THE BOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE DES_MOINES METRO AREA NEAR OR BEFORE 03Z. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 06/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Even though the instability slowly wanes further east across Iowa, the LLJ is forecast to really ramp up over the east half of the state later this evening. This may help maintain the bow echo. Surface cape is only on the order of 500-1000j/kg over western Iowa, so this thing is obviously very efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 is soon locally extended by ILX (perhaps in a matter of minutes) to include at least the likes of Galesburg and Peoria (and maybe Bloomington and Lincoln too), based on the looks of that SE IA/NE MO bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Beginning to think we can call the MO Tor Watch a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 DVN radar scanning echoes to 62kft west of DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Bow appears to be weakening a bit, only seeing 60 MPH in the warnings now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Beginning to think we can call the MO Tor Watch a bust... Be careful. We still have a number of hrs yet and Thompson is a good forecaster. Although discrete cells have not formed ahead of the bow echo it is possible the southern end of the line will become more discrete as it enters significantly higher helicity values in the tor warned region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Bow appears to be weakening a bit, only seeing 60 MPH in the warnings now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the southern part of it strengthen where the better instability lies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Good point, I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 933 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL GAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT * AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PICKRELL...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEATRICE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED EAST OF BEATRICE AT 930 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Dennison Iowa is still getting near 60mph wind gusts well behind the bow echo back in the precip free zone. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Dennison Iowa is still getting near 60mph wind gusts well behind the bow echo back in the precip free zone. Very impressive. Rapid pressure falls occuring... Nice wake low developing. Winds gusting up near 60mph into SW. Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 54kts (around 60mph) 70ft above the ground just west of the DMX radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Rapid pressure falls occuring... Nice wake low developing. Winds gusting up near 60mph into SW. Minnesota. Classic looking nocturnal linear MCS/bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 With the WAA wing dying out in Iowa, and the deeper convection further southwest along the line into southeast Nebraska I'm thinking the best storms/highest wind threat will begin diving southeastward into the northern half of Missouri. Don't think the severe threat will continue much east of Des Moines. The cluster of storms that moved through southeast Iowa helped stabilize much of that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 1993 - ghosts of Not a good situation - night after night - week after week of these complexes - rivers are already in major flood stage over many counties - MO and MS River will be flooding into August. These complexes are only complicating the situation. Unfortunately it seems we are in this pattern for awhile at least. We have only had brief incursions of hot weather up north here and MCS's have pushed boundaries southward so the east/west training is repeatedly over the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 High Wind Warnings posted behind and NW of the line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 1993 - ghosts of Not a good situation - night after night - week after week of these complexes - rivers are already in major flood stage over many counties - MO and MS River will be flooding into August. These complexes are only complicating the situation. It's all too familiar. In 93 there was an early spring river rise then fall to near normal levels. Then that pesky warm front hung around in June and July and all hell broke loose. Much like 93 we have one hell of a corn crop coming on. I hope we don't lose this one to the river too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH E-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 560... VALID 270306Z - 270430Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NRN MO AND EXTREME E-CNTRL MO. THE THREAT PERSIST FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER MO DISSIPATED AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASED WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT OTHER STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S. DESPITE THE STRONG CAP...IT APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MCV CIRCULATION MAY SUSTAIN THESE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. MCS FROM CNTRL IA INTO SERN NEB IS MOVING INTO NWRN MO WITH DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. STORMS ON SRN END OF THIS LINE HAVE MAINTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...AND GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM 300+ M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE OTHER BOW ECHO SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH WRN IL...AND SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BACKBUILD SLIGHTLY INTO EXTREME ERN MO AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF WW 560 APPEARS UNLIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Looking like the storm energy is gradually shifting south as the line moves toward eastern Iowa. There are 70+ mph wind reports from southeast of Des Moines, but there hasn't been a severe wind report along hw30 since before Ames. I'm not anticipating anything too bad by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Lighting is being detected 45 miles south of the line in Jefferson County, Kansas according to Allisonhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Are these things even into the highest helicities yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Looking like the storm energy is gradually shifting south as the line moves toward eastern Iowa. There are 70+ mph wind reports from southeast of Des Moines, but there hasn't been a severe wind report along hw30 since before Ames. I'm not anticipating anything too bad by the time it gets here. Yeah the severe threat is heading south of I-80. The rest of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois will be spared. Tomorrow's action jumps over us again and impacts areas to the east lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Storms along the line north of I-80 are collapsing now as they reach the more stable air. The heavy storm track just won't budge from southern IA/northern MO through central/southern IL. Just a brief wind gust and light rain for me, it appears. At least I won't have to haul all my plants into the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Be careful. We still have a number of hrs yet and Thompson is a good forecaster. Although discrete cells have not formed ahead of the bow echo it is possible the southern end of the line will become more discrete as it enters significantly higher helicity values in the tor warned region. Looks like that prediction could be coming into fruition, line is beginning to become slightly fragmented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The bow echo in northern Missouri is still VERY impressive. Looks like this thing will rage for hours as it pushes southeast towards St. Louis eventually. Still lots of boundary layer instability ahead of that portion of the line, so expect quite a few high end damaging wind gust reports over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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