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June 23rd to June 28th Severe Threat


Stebo

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Warmer mid level temps = more CAPE and more CAP. From what I have heard that is a crappy tradeoff and April is much better than June. Hardly any H% height falls to speak of, and when was then last time an EF4 or 5 occured in an area with +20C 850 Temps?

It happens. How about the Roanoke Illinois F4 on July 13, 2004. There are probably some cases that are even more recent.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID-MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING AN MCS. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MO...IL...IND AND WRN KY. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE AS THE MCS ORGANIZES AND STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 30 TO 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY WITH A SIG-HATCHED AREA FROM JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS EWD TO INDIANAPOLIS.

day2.prob.gif

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One of the better setups I've seen in awhile for South Dakota...

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

...NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S

TO LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY

NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY INTO THIS

AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH

PLAINS TODAY...THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF A

SHARPENING/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND TO THE EAST OF AN

EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO

/SYNOPSIS/...AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS/PERHAPS A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE

LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST

MT...AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD

ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SD/SOUTHEAST ND INTO WESTERN MN.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING IN VICINITY

OF THE WARM FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING

CONVECTION.

CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...ATTENDANT TO

THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...WILL

COINCIDE WITH A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF

SD/NEB.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

154 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

* AT 149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUFF...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

JASPER...

HUNTINGBURG AND HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT...

BRETZVILLE AND MALTERSVILLE...

SAINT MARKS AND SAINT ANTHONY...

KYANA AND CELESTINE...

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OAX...

CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY

THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY STRENGTHENING FROM THE WEAK

IMPULSE THAT IS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE

COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIFT OVER A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE

TO LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI. A RENEWED CONVECTIVE

COMPLEX IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS

AFTERNOON AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE

NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST

NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...INCREASED THE POPS TO ABOUT 60

PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TWO

DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS THIS AFTERNOON . SEVERE WEATHER IS

CERTAINLY A CONCERN AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KTS...

COMBINED WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT

IN QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY...CERTAINLY

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 0-1KM

SHEAR OF 15-20KTS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A SMALL TORNADO CONCERN

AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

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The HRRR is keeping the MDT risk area capped, this is a tough one on whether to head west or not.

There is a chance it could be a long drive for nothing but if something were to go it would explode over that area. The chances are better in that it goes in that direction rather than it staying capped.

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Well, there are Severe T-storms popping up to my west in Kansas right now, this area should be pretty mega capped. It's not outlooked.

Not sure if there's a subtle wave firing these off or what.

I've never seen this much mammatus in one year before, heh.

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