Winter 2011-2012

[FoothillsNC]

No, he just sees it like he sees it and is not warm biased as many forecasters are for the SE. IF you'll notice when enso is either neutral or in a nina state, most call for mild in the SE.

Plus, one of the main reasons I went above in snow where I did in the Southeast is that it only takes one decent or 2 minor systems to do it. Averages are around 6 to 7" for piedmont NC and drops quickly going south. The flow this year, and last few years has been active, and here's where I don't know why, but I'm playing the persistence...until I see otherwise evidence, I'd think the flow will remain active with more than normal shortwaves embedded...I think many of us remember the years a few years ago when we had a string of "not much" of anything, just dry northwest flow in Winter, or even Bermuda ridging, which was still mostly dry (and warm). If I thought we'd have sustained PNA ridge west/trough east I'd go more dry but there's a lot more waves in the flows lately and I don't see any reason it will stop. Very similar to last Winter, and the one before (except that was Nino). Very active is the key, esp. compared to mid 2000's. Still most of the waves will bring rain to most around here, but a couple should be supressed since blocking and neg. NAO seems to want to stay around, and thats when the Southeast gets Wintry precip.

[Carvers Gap]

Foothills is a snow weenie and his forecasts are always biased.

Put your own forecast on the line. Foothills will man-up if he misses the forecast and doesn't brag when he hits on the head - which he does most times.

[WidreMann]

Put your own forecast on the line. Foothills will man-up if he misses the forecast and doesn't brag when he hits on the head - which he does most times.

I make a forecast for every storm. Just because I don't have a ten page post with all sorts of meaningless graphs and charts doesn't mean I'm not making forecasts. Mine turn out to be right more of the time as well.

[tarheelwx]

No, he just sees it like he sees it and is not warm biased as many forecasters are for the SE. IF you'll notice when enso is either neutral or in a nina state, most call for mild in the SE.

Lee,

I like Foothills take as well. However, I disagree with the later part of your post. I'd say that without fail over the last 20 years, the overwhelming majority of forecasters have gone with mild temps for the SE with either a Nina (warm/dry) or a Nino. (warm/wet) If there has been a time when cooler temps were forecast, it was when neutral conditions were expected. As for the mild forecasts the last 20 years or so with nino or nina conditions, unfortunately "most" seemed to pan out until the last couple of winters. I think where many forecasters are misled is that they are placing almost all thier weight on nina/nino. As many of us now beleive, there are many, many other factors to consider and many of those factors are now shifting into more favorable phases - regardless of nino/nina.

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

we all need to realize who is posting the comments.

Robert doesn't need any support he does admit if he misses. One of the best I have ever seen. Look at Christmas, all models and everybody on the forum gave up Robert said i will happen and it did. I received 7 inches after it snowed all day without accumulation. Just last week locals called for two days of rain while Robert said it could rain all week and once again he was right. I appreciate his knowledge and use it when scheduling work.

[TheVille]

I make a forecast for every storm. Just because I don't have a ten page post with all sorts of meaningless graphs and charts doesn't mean I'm not making forecasts. Mine turn out to be right more of the time as well.

It's not hard to hit it right when most days it doesn't snow, since that seems to be your call everytime.

[WidreMann]

It's not hard to hit it right when most days it doesn't snow, since that seems to be your call everytime.

I don't just call for no snow. I call for less snow, or the snow band to be elsewhere, or a quicker changeover. Even if it's true that it's a safe bet because of climo, why does that make me wrong? A good forecast is a good forecast. If fancy models and ten pages of gibberish can't beat climo, then they are worthless.

[Blue Ridge]

Widre is relishing his role of subforum pessimist, and others are attacking him for it.

SSDD

Foothills is one of the most respected SE mets. Don't agree? Tough.

[pcbjr]

Now, if this were not weekend computer generated and if this were late Dec/early Jan ... it would be a "WOW"

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I don't just call for no snow. I call for less snow, or the snow band to be elsewhere, or a quicker changeover. Even if it's true that it's a safe bet because of climo, why does that make me wrong? A good forecast is a good forecast. If fancy models and ten pages of gibberish can't beat climo, then they are worthless.

You really are in love with yourself...........I thought it was just a summer thing.

[ryan1234]

I make a forecast for every storm. Just because I don't have a ten page post with all sorts of meaningless graphs and charts doesn't mean I'm not making forecasts. Mine turn out to be right more of the time as well.

Unlike you, Robert actually takes the time to explain to us his thoughts with his graphics. It shows that unlike you he cares about his work and puts a lot of time and effort into it. That's something a real meteorologist should do.

[WidreMann]

Unlike you, Robert actually takes the time to explain to us his thoughts with his graphics. It shows that unlike you he cares about his work and puts a lot of time and effort into it. That's something a real meteorologist should do.

And yet all those thoughtful posts don't actually produce more accurate forecasts. I'm just not wasting my time with a methodology that's not mature enough to produce an accurate forecast.

[AcworthWx]

[Tyler Penland]

And yet all those thoughtful posts don't actually produce more accurate forecasts. I'm just not wasting my time with a methodology that's not mature enough to produce an accurate forecast.

I personally like reading his forecasts. I am studying to be a met so I greatly appreciate it when people like him are kind enough to take their time to put together an excellent forecast so I can learn from it.

However, people like you are the reason I rarely if ever post here. I'd be obliged if you would back up your statements with something other than your own ego.

Thanks. And don't bother replying because I'm going back to just reading.

But THANK YOU VERY MUCH Foothills for your excellent forecasts and explanations. I appreciate it more than you know.

[ryan1234]

I personally like reading his forecasts. I am studying to be a met so I greatly appreciate it when people like him are kind enough to take their time to put together an excellent forecast so I can learn from it.

However, people like you are the reason I rarely if ever post here. I'd be obliged if you would back up your statements with something other than your own ego.

Thanks. And don't bother replying because I'm going back to just reading.

But THANK YOU VERY MUCH Foothills for your excellent forecasts and explanations. I appreciate it more than you know.

Wish we had a like button on here....

[Lee]

Lee,

I like Foothills take as well. However, I disagree with the later part of your post. I'd say that without fail over the last 20 years, the overwhelming majority of forecasters have gone with mild temps for the SE with either a Nina (warm/dry) or a Nino. (warm/wet) If there has been a time when cooler temps were forecast, it was when neutral conditions were expected. As for the mild forecasts the last 20 years or so with nino or nina conditions, unfortunately "most" seemed to pan out until the last couple of winters. I think where many forecasters are misled is that they are placing almost all thier weight on nina/nino. As many of us now beleive, there are many, many other factors to consider and many of those factors are now shifting into more favorable phases - regardless of nino/nina.

TW

TW,

I agree with the last "half" ( wasn't paragraphed)of your reply that the majority of those years have been mild,as has been the case in the East in general, thus one of the global warmingista's "tools". Let alone easy access data for reference @ our finger tips, having lived thru and recorded over 30 years local weather data, there's clearly more mild years than not in the last 20 as you mention.

I completely agree, as many on here do, that many outlets base an outlook just off of Enso climo. CPC used to pretty much do that solely. As far as other factors beside Enso, I agree completely and know about those as well. I don't do a national outlook but, do one for my Paper column for the local area of which many of those factors are incorporated. Btw, my preliminary is for a variable winter as my thinking is a battle between the pacific pattern and upstream blocking will be the case. I'm going near normal on temps/ above precip.

Lastly, as for most predicting mild in Nino years in the SE over neutral, I would have to disagree as for the major outlets are concerned .(May be the case for some forecasters, as when you have a string of mild years in a row, or many more mild than not winters, many are going to become more apt to forecast mild; play the hot hand/or get on the global warming bandwagon)

For the eastern U.S. as a whole, yes, most definitely. CPC broadbrushed mild for nearly all winter forecasts of which Nino was to be the enso state in much of the U.S.. The SE is about the only place they would go equal chances or below normal, simply because of Nino climo of which of course the active southern branch of the Jet was a player.

[gracetoyou]

I make a forecast for every storm. Just because I don't have a ten page post with all sorts of meaningless graphs and charts doesn't mean I'm not making forecasts. Mine turn out to be right more of the time as well.

To me, I'm guessing you're someone that doesn't know much about weather so you do not back your thoughts with any data & you're not a winter weather lover so you like to blast anyone that might imply that we won't have a warm winter.

Sorry, but it just appears that way to me from reading your posts. If that's not true then think about seriously changing your posting style.

[WidreMann]

To me, I'm guessing you're someone that doesn't know much about weather so you do not back your thoughts with any data & you're not a winter weather lover so you like to blast anyone that might imply that we won't have a warm winter.

Sorry, but it just appears that way to me from reading your posts. If that's not true then think about seriously changing your posting style.

Wrong on both counts. It's a pastime for me to troll the SE forum in the winter.

[kaiya]

Wrong on both counts. It's a pastime for me to troll the SE forum in the winter.

Don't leave I would love to here what you think about the winter forcast

[NEGa]

Plus, one of the main reasons I went above in snow where I did in the Southeast is that it only takes one decent or 2 minor systems to do it. Averages are around 6 to 7" for piedmont NC and drops quickly going south. The flow this year, and last few years has been active, and here's where I don't know why, but I'm playing the persistence...until I see otherwise evidence, I'd think the flow will remain active with more than normal shortwaves embedded...I think many of us remember the years a few years ago when we had a string of "not much" of anything, just dry northwest flow in Winter, or even Bermuda ridging, which was still mostly dry (and warm). If I thought we'd have sustained PNA ridge west/trough east I'd go more dry but there's a lot more waves in the flows lately and I don't see any reason it will stop. Very similar to last Winter, and the one before (except that was Nino). Very active is the key, esp. compared to mid 2000's. Still most of the waves will bring rain to most around here, but a couple should be supressed since blocking and neg. NAO seems to want to stay around, and thats when the Southeast gets Wintry precip.

so true, that one 10" storm last winter alone would have been over average, let alone all the other events. it doesnt take a lot i the se the last two winters were awesome.....fingers crossed for this year but i have to admit the statistics make me nervous lol

[LithiaWx]

From the main snowcover thread...

[okie333]

From the main snowcover thread...

Updated version:

12Z GFS goes nuts with future increases too, especially over Eurasia.

[Psalm 148:8]

This is your friend!!!

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[FoothillsNC]

thanks to everybody who stuck up for me :hug:but I don't see Widre's comments as an attack on me really. He's just being himself. I actually agree with him on the ability to make long term outlooks with any good accuracy as of yet, but I will put in here what I put on the other thread. The gist is, we are indeed getting better at it, but no one has it right yet, every single year. Plenty of great, well paid pros , like at the energy sector, get it way wrong a lot of times but the pieces of the big puzzle are coming in, one by one, year by year, so eventually we will be getting much better, and at an exponential rate to boot.

"well thanks for all the compliments guys and gals. I know every body has a philosophy about doing an outlook, and nobody ever can claim to be mostly correct all the time. But I firmly believe we are getting better at it, as the years go by, thanks to collective knowledge and just building on the science. Isn't that what science is all about? Some folks are really negative and say why even bother to try, but if you go by that philosophy, then how about hundreds of years ago, when the telescope was invented, then developed and fine tuned? Now we see a universe of 200 BILLION galaxies, each containing over 100 billion stars, and each star seperated by light years, and each galaxy spanning 100 thousand light years from one end to the other , like our own Milky Way, and each galaxy separated by many, many, many millions of light years apart! We went from a Flat earth, and earth-centered universe to this in just one millennium. Then quantum physics came along, and now we're in the infancy of looking the other direction, into almost infinity, as far as man's tools will let him look at the unbelievably small? The point is, you gotta start somewhere. Just like 30 years ago a weather model couldn't predict if it would rain just 2 or 3 days out. Now we have models than pinpoint pretty well, even out to 7 days out, and we're constantly getting better. All thanks to collective scientific knowledge. I know myself I've learned tons just reading on here the last few years from Chuck and Wes, and other pro mets, on this very board. Also, from great non mets, who actually can probably deliver a more accurate forecast than some well paid pro, Tv, Noaa, and media mets, again right here on this very forum. Without a doubt, thats true.

If any forecastere did have all the pieces of the long term forecast puzzle in his arsenal, they would nearly rule the world. Yet we have excellent , non paid, no pro forecasters on here who actually in the past have did very well, using all the tools that others use, beating energy sector and noaa forecasts.

So, I say continue to "build it"...even though you could be dead wrong in any given year. Still no excuse for not trying and not learning a little more each time you try. That being said though, I'm not a multi-season long ranger really, I think I do better in the 7 to 30 day pattern, and prefer pattern recognition, and incorporate a huge list of things in my forecast, not just models and certainly not just a broad based climo list. I aim for specificity and accuracy, but you can only do so much in a long range outlook. Obviously not everybody bounded by the white on my map would get snow, there would be gaps of course, but thats the general outline of where the cold/warm and snow/below would be as I see it now. Could be dead wrong."

[Mr Bob]

I personally like reading his forecasts. I am studying to be a met so I greatly appreciate it when people like him are kind enough to take their time to put together an excellent forecast so I can learn from it.

However, people like you are the reason I rarely if ever post here. I'd be obliged if you would back up your statements with something other than your own ego.

Thanks. And don't bother replying because I'm going back to just reading.

But THANK YOU VERY MUCH Foothills for your excellent forecasts and explanations. I appreciate it more than you know.

Wish we had a like button on here....

To me, I'm guessing you're someone that doesn't know much about weather so you do not back your thoughts with any data & you're not a winter weather lover so you like to blast anyone that might imply that we won't have a warm winter.

Sorry, but it just appears that way to me from reading your posts. If that's not true then think about seriously changing your posting style.

Don't leave I would love to here what you think about the winter forcast

:axe:

This place is absolutely going to hell in a hand basket....

[weathertree4u]

:axe:

This place is absolutely going to hell in a hand basket....

I agree, just drop it, almost two pages of near to nothing backing and forth, be adult

[DaculaWeather]

thanks to everybody who stuck up for me :hug:but I don't see Widre's comments as an attack on me really. He's just being himself. I actually agree with him on the ability to make long term outlooks with any good accuracy as of yet, but I will put in here what I put on the other thread. The gist is, we are indeed getting better at it, but no one has it right yet, every single year. Plenty of great, well paid pros , like at the energy sector, get it way wrong a lot of times but the pieces of the big puzzle are coming in, one by one, year by year, so eventually we will be getting much better, and at an exponential rate to boot.

I still say you 'da man!

One thing I like about Robert's post is they are complete. He touches all bases and explains everything in detail. That's what I like, I like to be taught as we all observe and discuss. And like Robert said, I've learned all kinds of things I didn't know about since I started coming up here. Very, very educational.

So thanks for your discussions Robert, I look forward to each and every one.

[WidreMann]

Don't leave I would love to here what you think about the winter forcast

I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65.

[DaculaWeather]

I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65.

Is it going to rain in my backyard this winter?

[Spidyr2k]

I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65.

That wouldn't be so bad.....for the mosquito population And, folks would save on heating expenses. But, I have doubts that the winter average will be "sunny and 65".