Is it just me...or does this look like 2010?

[pjmJS]

As the topic states, is it just me, or is this year starting to look eerily similar to 2010? The main argument for a cooler summer continues to be ENSO neutral conditions. However, with increased AMO, and temps continuing to come in higher than the "hot" gfs operational, I'm wondering if this summer will look more similar to 2010. May and June look very very close to last year.

[Ellinwood]

Myself and a couple others in the office were actually just going over this very subject this morning... one more thing they have in common are similar DJF anomaly patterns. Don't ask me to get in-depth (because I can't ), but I've like 2010 since we rolled out of the end of winter, and it APPEARS to be holding somewhat true, even when comparing things like the NAO/AO forecast to last year's actuals (average) for this month. Of course, July/August could still be completely different, especially if the ENSO trends differently from last year. It's certainly something to keep an eye on.

[Ian]

ellinwood ftw?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

As the topic states, is it just me, or is this year starting to look eerily similar to 2010? The main argument for a cooler summer continues to be ENSO neutral conditions. However, with increased AMO, and temps continuing to come in higher than the "hot" gfs operational, I'm wondering if this summer will look more similar to 2010. May and June look very very close to last year.

Yeah, I've been saying on Accuweather forums since last December that this spring and summer would be a total blowtorch just like 2010 for DC and Baltimore. Many disagreed with me at first, but I was right on spring temps, and I see more coming on board with that idea for summer now as well.

[Ellinwood]

ellinwood ftw?

If this summer verifies close to 2010 it'll be luck more than anything else

[CoastalWx]

It's not as 2010-like up this way, though we'll have some big heat Thursday/Friday. We've had the benefit of the cutoffs to our northeast from time to time.

[easternsnowman]

I think from now on we can expect most summers to be like last....look forward to 90 being the norm.

[Kmlwx]

I think from now on we can expect most summers to be like last....look forward to 90 being the norm.

Really? So what if every teleconnection flips and we get an unusually cool summer next year? I'm assuming you are making the global warming argument?

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think from now on we can expect most summers to be like last....look forward to 90 being the norm.

Thanks for the heads up.

[ThePhotoGuy]

I think from now on we can expect most summers to be like last....look forward to 90 being the norm.

When will all the coastal cities be flooded?

[MN Transplant]

I think from now on we can expect most summers to be like last....look forward to 90 being the norm.

No. Natural variability will still trounce increased radiative forcing on the regional scale for many years into the future.

[Ian]

When will all the coastal cities be flooded?

thank god im on a hill

[WxUSAF]

90F is the norm, at least for July in our neck of the woods. That's pretty close to our average high temp for that month.

[pjmJS]

I think this is the concern:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

humidity dominates.

[ThePhotoGuy]

thank god im on a hill

I live a block from the water

[H2O]

I think this is the concern:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

humidity dominates.

This will help fuel any hurricane that makes its way to rainstorm land.

[Deck Pic]

The warm Spring anomalies in 2010 were further north, more severe, and placed differently.....this spring has been more classic with the orientation of the ridge/trough axis with the warmest anomalies from Texas and southeast over the drought areas....there may be some resultant similarities in our backyard as we are often caught between 2 different weather regimes, but I don't expect the summer anomaly maps for the CONUS to be similar....

I think drought is a huge factor....and not one that I paid much attention to......we are already seeing that ridges pop easily over the drier areas and we are on the cusp of them....

If we continue to have a dry June, I think we can expect July/August to torch....going back to 1971, here is July/August in the years where we had at least a 3" rain deficit for the 1st half of the year...I am glad I went warm all 3 months

[The Dude]

thank god im on a hill

mudslides

[WVclimo]

The warm Spring anomalies in 2010 were further north, more severe, and placed differently.....this spring has been more classic with the orientation of the ridge/trough axis with the warmest anomalies from Texas and southeast over the drought areas....there may be some resultant similarities in our backyard as we are often caught between 2 different weather regimes, but I don't expect the summer anomaly maps for the CONUS to be similar....

I think drought is a huge factor....and not one that I paid much attention to......we are already seeing that ridges pop easily over the drier areas and we are on the cusp of them....

If we continue to have a dry June, I think we can expect July/August to torch....going back to 1971, here is July/August in the years where we had at least a 3" rain deficit for the 1st half of the year...I am glad I went warm all 3 months

Been historically wet here this spring.

I like your CWG forecast for breaks in the heat from time-to-time. If we get that, it won't be 2010-like.

[pjmJS]

Does anybody know the probabilty of an above normal summer given hot May & June?

[The Dude]

Does anybody know the probabilty of an above normal summer given hot May & June?

Not off-hand, but I know the probability of an above normal summer is very high with a hot July and August.

[Deck Pic]

Been historically wet here this spring.

I like your CWG forecast for breaks in the heat from time-to-time. If we get that, it won't be 2010-like.

yes...you are on the east edge of the wet anomaly....the coast is getting drier and drier....

[pjmJS]

Actually, I just did a quick calc using NOAA data. I'm using from 1963 to 2010 as the average for D.C.

With May & June above normal, there is a 77% chance of July being above normal, 69% of August being above normal, and 54% chance of both July & August being above normal.

[Deck Pic]

Actually, I just did a quick calc using NOAA data. I'm using from 1963 to 2010 as the average for D.C.

With May & June above normal, there is a 77% chance of July being above normal, 69% of August being above normal, and 54% chance of both July & August being above normal.

here are the 10 years since 1950 that had May and June both at least 1 degree above normal (based on 71-2000 norms)...I should have probably re-scaled August....the correlation is a bit more convincing in July

[Ian]

looks like doug hill is on board

Last year, the region saw 67 days of temperatures that were 90 degrees or higher. That tied the 1980 record.

"My hunch is we're going to be in that ballpark again this year," Hill says.

http://wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2415776

[rainstorm]

ive been getting bashed quite a bit in the tropical thread comparing this season to 2010 pattern wise. nice to see at least a few may agree.

[Ian]

ive been getting bashed quite a bit in the tropical thread comparing this season to 2010 pattern wise. nice to see at least a few may agree.

it's early and untested... there might be some similarities between the power of the subtropical ridge thus far... will be interesting to see how the next week or two play out. mid-range guidance has wanted to show a bit different look but the ridge is always there over the southern drought area ready to spring back up. i dunno how you can say this yr might get up with last on a 90 degree day count at this pt... tho i dunno how you can say we're done with big heat either. at the very least it seems like the type of thing that would want to pulse in and out--which we did have last yr as well, tho the in pulses were generally fairly long.

[matthewweatherwatcher]

ive been getting bashed quite a bit in the tropical thread comparing this season to 2010 pattern wise. nice to see at least a few may agree.

I kind of agree. Of course it's normal for there to be high levels of shear in June and normally a pattern can change by the peak, but your right about the large western-central Atlantic trough as of now and if you had a cape verde trying to get across now it would likely recurve. It is as clear as day. Lets hope that changes, but it didn't last season...There was always some kind of weakness.

Surface

http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=120hr

500 millibars

http://moe.met.fsu.e...hear&hour=120hr

As of now there is a weakness near 60 west at surface, but a tutt forcing shear over the area from 60-80 from 21-28 north throughout western Atlantic...near 15-30 north within 70-85 west there is a surface ridge, which extends to 500 millibars...But there is a solid trough by 90-120 hours.

Another thing you can get is a strong high pressure over the east coast(80-95 west) and a trough(55-70 west) throughout the western-central Atlantic. So you can get hot weather in the eastern part of the country and have cyclone recurving out to sea.

Now could it change in the next few months. Yes.

[rainstorm]

it's early and untested... there might be some similarities between the power of the subtropical ridge thus far... will be interesting to see how the next week or two play out. mid-range guidance has wanted to show a bit different look but the ridge is always there over the southern drought area ready to spring back up. i dunno how you can say this yr might get up with last on a 90 degree day count at this pt... tho i dunno how you can say we're done with big heat either. at the very least it seems like the type of thing that would want to pulse in and out--which we did have last yr as well, tho the in pulses were generally fairly long.

true. i just feel the overall pattern with a trough in the west atlantic seems similar to 2010 as well as the persistent neg NAO.

[OHSnow]

Very 2010 like feel to it, even in other parts of the globe. Finland has been experiencing a heat wave, sending temps near 90 as far north as the Arctic Circle. One town came with one degree of setting the all-time June high for the country, which was originally set in 1935. I believe the all-time high for any month in Finland was set just last year.

Russia too has seen a return to the heat and fires of last year. Peat and forest fires are raging across eastern Russia, and experts warn that it could be even worse than last year's suffocating fires. Last year saw a record 6.4 million acres burned in Russia, so far this year that number is 1.5 million. Of course, last year, Moscow exceeded its previous all-time record high of 99 on several different occassions and experienced a good solid three straight weeks where the max temp was 90 or higher.

Welcome to the new normal.