free_man Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 A little too soon to start talking about the end of next week potential? As always, timing and other major differences/ issues are present, but it looks like something to watch as most of the global models have a s/w passing through and also a favorable mid-upper air wind direction for this area. GGEM Euro gfs UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I don't like talking much about tstms 5-6 days out, but there is potential for a nightime/early morning cluster and then something in the aftn...type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I don't like talking much about tstms 5-6 days out, but there is potential for a nightime/early morning cluster and then something in the aftn...type deal. Sounds familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Other than the recent outbreak there is nothing to talk about.. Tropics? next winter? temp debates meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I don't like talking much about tstms 5-6 days out, but there is potential for a nightime/early morning cluster and then something in the aftn...type deal. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Other than the recent outbreak there is nothing to talk about.. Tropics? next winter? temp debates meh Your track record in June is worth noting... at least something to pay attention to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Good job! Yes, this was noticeable over the last couple days, regarding the end of the week. Thinking is Friday ...or timing differences perhaps honing Saturday. Currently in the MV there are excessive heat advisories. This trapped air appears prone to being pulled up and NE across the OV/MA and possibly NE late in the week, for there being modeled by the G models a transient re-assertion of eastern heights ..coming into timing/phase with lower tropospheric veering of winds through he eastern U.S. As you have outlined, there is also cyclonic curvature along with accelerating winds with height at some point in the Thur-Sat time frame, while these other synoptic evolutions are taking place. (Side note, could be one day of near excessive heat - growing signal in the middle range guidance) This type of longitudinal trough is better for severe, because the helicity is not conserved around the meridional flow, but is left wide open by the structure of having W wind at mid levels riding over S wind at the surface. It's potential vorticity (not exhausted) where suspending vector in the vertical will tend to realize that potential. This was recently consequential in the area. Could see a nascent warm sector arrival with whip result DP and heat then having to contend with destablizing mid levels and favorable jet mechanics during the time frame. I was going to start a thread about this but you beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Big signal it would seem late Thursday through Friday window. This is one of those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Good job! Yes, this was noticeable over the last couple days, regarding the end of the week. Thinking is Friday ...or timing differences perhaps honing Saturday. Currently in the MV there are excessive heat advisories. This trapped air appears prone to being pulled up and NE across the OV/MA and possibly NE late in the week, for there being modeled by the G models a transient re-assertion of eastern heights ..coming into timing/phase with lower tropospheric veering of winds through he eastern U.S. As you have outlined, there is also cyclonic curvature along with accelerating winds with height at some point in the Thur-Sat time frame, while these other synoptic evolutions are taking place. (Side note, could be one day of near excessive heat - growing signal in the middle range guidance) This type of longitudinal trough is better for severe, because the helicity is not conserved around the meridional flow, but is left wide open by the structure of having W wind at mid levels riding over S wind at the surface. It's potential vorticity (not exhausted) where suspending vector in the vertical will tend to realize that potential. This was recently consequential in the area. Could see a nascent warm sector arrival with whip result DP and heat then having to contend with destablizing mid levels and favorable jet mechanics during the time frame. I was going to start a thread about this but you beat me to it BIrving has been on FIYAHHH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Oops, Thursday -Friday. I got my day mixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I'm thinking of going out to NY tomorrow to storm hase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Your track record in June is worth noting... at least something to pay attention to thanks, It is nice to see activity on the distant horizon, while we enjoy the relaxing, but boring sunny days. 12z gfs ensembles and also the 12z Euro like the Thursday afternoon idea, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 This is kind of like you just had the Blizzard of 78 or Superstorm 93 and how do you come close to matching that with the next event or any event..... I'm sure nothing else this year comes close. thanks, It is nice to see activity on the distant horizon, while we enjoy the relaxing, but boring sunny days. 12z gfs ensembles and also the 12z Euro like the Thursday afternoon idea, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Euro looks like it gets a decent airmass in here, but the low levels are quite veered, so we'd probably struggle to maintain very high dews and directional shear would be minimal. Of course, given its 5 days out, a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 This is kind of like you just had the Blizzard of 78 or Superstorm 93 and how do you come close to matching that with the next event or any event..... I'm sure nothing else this year comes close. In January of 1978 SNE had a pretty decent blizzard that had people shakng their heads. Then came Feb 6 jk I could see a decent bunch of thnderstorms but I am thinking we have used up our allotment of severe for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You guys have anyway ...I didn't even get measurable rain that day. I'm happy though to have dry wx because I was utterly worn out mowing the lawn so much. In January of 1978 SNE had a pretty decent blizzard that had people shakng their heads. Then came Feb 6 jk I could see a decent bunch of thnderstorms but I am thinking we have used up our allotment of severe for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 This is kind of like you just had the Blizzard of 78 or Superstorm 93 and how do you come close to matching that with the next event or any event..... I'm sure nothing else this year comes close. Big events can come in twos, or threes. Goes back to the whole "due" argument. lol 1954...'nuff said! I'd say we are still 5:1 odds for another major severe outbreak before June ends, perhaps OV lakes or NE centered. Not at all saying this time frame will be anything like last week. Just giving a heads up , there's upside potential as long as we keep this general early Summer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 GFS and EC have another EML or "near-EML" event for thurs. Our study dataset showed that when it rains it pours....you can go several years without having a single event, but then some years the pattern is favorable for quite awhile and you can get several events in one season (1995 for instance). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 GFS and EC have another EML or "near-EML" event for thurs. Our study dataset showed that when it rains it pours....you can go several years without having a single event, but then some years the pattern is favorable for quite awhile and you can get several events in one season (1995 for instance). We'll see. That's very interesting data, 95 hmm, winter correlation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 You guys have anyway ...I didn't even get measurable rain that day. I'm happy though to have dry wx because I was utterly worn out mowing the lawn so much. We didn;t get a huge amount of rain IMBY, just a couple of showers and one gully washer with pea sized hail. Some of the scariest looking clouds I have ever seen though. Very eerie at one point when the wind died down and it was silent. I just got out and filmed the sky for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 It looks like a good trajectory to get an EML in here, but right now the low level flow looks veered which is not favorable for keeping dews excessively high and high helicity. But those latter parameters can change pretty easily this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 That's very interesting data, 95 hmm, winter correlation! I as thinking that as well. Especially if we go to weak Nina which I think we may. As of this moment, I'm on board for a rather mild and relatively snow free winter but it's too early for me to officially forecast and it can change. Mid-late summer will give me a better signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 GFS and EC have another EML or "near-EML" event for thurs. Our study dataset showed that when it rains it pours....you can go several years without having a single event, but then some years the pattern is favorable for quite awhile and you can get several events in one season (1995 for instance). We'll see. This is is a brilliant point imo - I was speaking to another Met about this and that statistics hide flurries of events, where then years may go by where you get less activity overall. Most of the numbers are because of that one season. Putting that aside for a moment, we have a heat bulge centered ~ 100W throwing heat wedges at us that are truncated by longitudinal waves passing over the crest of the ridge - this is a prone positive helicity regime in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I as thinking that as well. Especially if we go to weak Nina which I think we may. As of this moment, I'm on board for a rather mild and relatively snow free winter but it's too early for me to officially forecast and it can change. Mid-late summer will give me a better signal. Last year in June you were singing the tune, this year in May I didn't like what you had to say, this post shows a peek at what you will eventually speak. You'll fold and finally see what a great winter it will surely be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Maybe nitpicking here given the range but I would like to see a much more pronounced and deeper sfc low...something at least in the mid 990's and one that is continuing to slowly deepen or hold pat as it goes into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This is is a brilliant point imo - I was speaking to another Met about this and that statistics hide flurries of events, where then years may go by where you get less activity overall. Most of the numbers are because of that one season. Putting that aside for a moment, we have a heat bulge centered ~ 100W throwing heat wedges at us that are truncated by longitudinal waves passing over the crest of the ridge - this is a prone positive helicity regime in the means. Wiz is aroused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Wiz is aroused. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Absolutely. My interest in severe here has been raised. Remember all the posters bustin your cayonnes about the lack of in SNE, they are back in their Sally closets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Wiz is aroused. I began eying this Thur-Fri period pretty much at the end of that last - lol. Although the 00z GFS is more Friday, which makes sense as we near and shed overall progressivity biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 My interest in severe here has been raised. Remember all the posters bustin your cayonnes about the lack of in SNE, they are back in their Sally closets. This pattern setup could definitely very favorable for us and as long as it continues to hold we'll have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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