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Retrograde Snowstorm by 12/5?


CT Rain

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The best cold is clearly on the other side of the pole though. This Neg NAO (and undercutting trough) is pulling down all the cold it could muster and at 60 hours we cant get the 516 line below Thunder Bay Ontario.

Not saying it isn't chilly - just not impressive compared to Europe, etc.

Agreed, we have been locked into this intergalacticplanetary torch for so long that any cold, feels colder and we are drooling over it. Meanwhile(imby) today was normal, tomorrow is normal, and saturday is normal, with only slightly below normal departures next week, its really not THAT cold.....just nice and chilly.

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Well we actually would want the block a little stronger for this setup since we are trying to retrograde a system in here. With a stronger block, instead of the low retrograding into N ME, you'd have it come back to southern ME or just offshore MA which would be ideal.

As depcited, I think we'll probably see scattered snow showers/flurries around on Saturday night...it does have some decent rh wrapping around the mid-level center into SNE.

Its too bad though we can't get the actual CCB to back SW down the coast of ME.

My impressions too nice 528 overhead, need the block to get stronger to pinwheel this into Maine Jayhawks backyard.

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Agreed, we have been locked into this intergalacticplanetary torch for so long that any cold, feels colder and we are drooling over it. Meanwhile(imby) today was normal, tomorrow is normal, and saturday is normal, with only slightly below normal departures next week, its really not THAT cold.....just nice and chilly.

And, we need this strong NAO to avoid a national torch it seems. That said, Cahir area has a deep trof so no wonder we don't have much cold to work with. The good news is that flips in a big way over the next few days and that's what the Euro is seeing.

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If we're not going to snow. Might as well torch. That's just how I see it. What's good about highs in the 20s? Record cold, that's a different story. The block is rearing its ugly head again in 2010-2011.

Ok, I'm ready for the "But we need to establish the cold before we snow comments..."

I just think it sucks that we've gone from talking about a serious threat to talking about previous snow events lol. Its almost like we moved back into early november again.

I'm patient though. I didn't expect much from this time period anyways. I just don't want to see a block right over our heads again like last year.

:weenie:

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Is Euro week 2 a signal for a big mid atlantic KU?

And does weeks 3 and 4 look to open things up for storms to get up in ne?

Well the signal is there for the east coast. It's tough to say exactly how the pattern would shape up, since the anomalies naturally dampen out in time, but that's a pretty good pattern.

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Cold and dry I suspect. Snow showers would mainly be for late Sat night and Sunday/Sun night. But with ull still overhead i guess you couldnt rule out flurries.

Yeah it should be pretty chilly and likely on the dry side...perfect football weather. Besides the cold I also foresee something you don't see in Dallas, a home team win.

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NAM actually shows a lot of snow showers and maybe even some brief steadier light snow over the region on Sunday afternoon/evening

Yeah, it definitely holds serve with the snow this weekend.

32F with -SN for the past couple hours... cars have a nice white dusting on them. Nothing better than watching model runs for a winter storm as flakes fly past the window :thumbsup:

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You have posted about solar influences not being that big before.

I think you may be confusing some of the stuff about solar and near term stuff. That was tropical related, and I wasn't skeptical (since I'm no expert), I just said that I think sometimes things get over-analyzed too much when we as a community uncover new stuff. I do think it has more long term implications. Given the history of past Ninas from years ago...I do think that there is obviously other factors at work when we still pop a strong -nao during a mdt or strong ENSO event. This isn't even related to what's going on now..just saying this, based on the Ninas during the -nao decadal phase. I'm not at all implying we are in one currently..we still need some more years to figure that out, but given the nao lifecycle time...we are probably sliding into one. Of course we could flip + in January and February..we just don't know. My guess is we won't flip to a big + trend during these two months, but I won't be shocked if we torch for a time. Although, given the trends...who knows..lol.

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Yeah, it definitely holds serve with the snow this weekend.

32F with -SN for the past couple hours... cars have a nice white dusting on them. Nothing better than watching model runs for a winter storm as flakes fly past the window :thumbsup:

I've cleared my mid week schedule for some skiing.

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I think you may be confusing some of the stuff about solar and near term stuff. That was tropical related, and I wasn't skeptical (since I'm no expert), I just said that I think sometimes things get over-analyzed too much when we as a community uncover new stuff. I do think it has more long term implications. Given the history of past Ninas from years ago...I do think that there is obviously other factors at work when we still pop a strong -nao during a mdt or strong ENSO event. This isn't even related to what's going on now..just saying this, based on the Ninas during the -nao decadal phase. I'm not at all implying we are in one currently..we still need some more years to figure that out, but given the nao lifecycle time...we are probably sliding into one. Of course we could flip + in January and February..we just don't know. My guess is we won't flip to a big + trend during these two months, but I won't be shocked if we torch for a time. Although, given the trends...who knows..lol.

Nice thesis lol, gotcha though,

The ice puss. Ies would love that TS the nam spins up, the core on that is plus 30 C

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