CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 18z NAM is awesome lol steep lapse rates, lots of low level moisture, and some very impressive shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Granted, it's the NAM, and the 18z at that, but the cape/hodograph combination is one of the most impressive I've seen around here.<br><br>If you want to look at some weather porn look at the BUFKIT profiles for BDL.<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 18z NAM is awesome lol steep lapse rates, lots of low level moisture, and some very impressive shear. I wish they were more like the GFS, but the 18z NAM def looked a little better with the ML lapse rates. They are between 6.5C and 7C per km which is perfectly decent, but the 7.5C to 8C (even briefly higher) on the GFS is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wish they were more like the GFS, but the 18z NAM def looked a little better with the ML lapse rates. They are between 6.5C and 7C per km which is perfectly decent, but the 7.5C to 8C (even briefly higher) on the GFS is awesome. I think the fact the NAM is moving toward the GFS is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I actually saw that on the IR loop a bit ago. http://www.meteo.psu...ATL/animir.html that's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 18z NAM is awesome lol steep lapse rates, lots of low level moisture, and some very impressive shear. Interesting that the TI temperatures back down so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 that's awesome! Wouldn't it be something if that feature circumnavigated the ridge axis, moved up through the High Plains, turned right and went on to ruin another forecast of New England - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 looks pretty dry above the sfc... that could mix out easily Euro was very similar in this regard...after 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 To be honest it's unusual to see models increase seemingly every parameter as we get closer to the event. Normally everything goes to crap 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 To be honest it's unusual to see models increase seemingly every parameter as we get closer to the event. Normally everything goes to crap 24 hours out. and everyone acknowledges accept Kevin ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Euro was very similar in this regard...after 18z The NAM is so dry by 20z at BDL you gotta think we're going to have some problems with excessive dry air entrainment hurting our updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think the fact the NAM is moving toward the GFS is a good sign. I hope we have enough low level forcing tomorrow. The one thing that is still just slightly bothersome is the cap...its not extremely weak or nonexistent so with the better ascent to our north, we are prone to getting a bit screwed if TDs a bit lower and/or if surface heating is mitigated by cloud debris. The one positive about having the cap like it is, is that if we can get a few cells to fire up out ahead of any line, they could go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 GFS still looks dam good for many areas. In comparing previous runs, it continues the dig slightly further south into the GL. I'm not sure if it is much consequence here, but the forcing may be improved slightly. GFS also has a weak s/w coming through after 00z. I'm not sure if it is spurious or not. Regardless, that's a real nice turning with height. Good CAPE on the GFS, though dews might be high. GFS does really dry out the mid levels after 21z which isn't good, but maybe it's too progressive with that. Not sure. I wouldn't be shocked if we are looking at a mid level 10,000ft deck of clouds in the morning, but it looks like it gets out in time. It's advertising 40-50kts from wsw at 925-850mb. FWIW twisterdata is a real nice site to get a quick and dirty view of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 GFS still looks dam good for many areas. In comparing previous runs, it continues the dig slightly further south into the GL. I'm not sure if it is much consequence here, but the forcing may be improved slightly. GFS also has a weak s/w coming through after 00z. I'm not sure if it is spurious or not. Regardless, that's a real nice turning with height. Good CAPE on the GFS, though dews might be high. GFS does really dry out the mid levels after 21z which isn't good, but maybe it's too progressive with that. Not sure. I wouldn't be shocked if we are looking at a mid level 10,000ft deck of clouds in the morning, but it looks like it gets out in time. It's advertising 40-50kts from wsw at 925-850mb. FWIW twisterdata is a real nice site to get a quick and dirty view of things. Will Wiz be chasing tomorrow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Will Wiz be chasing tomorrow??? LOL, if he went to Delaware last year to see low level scud...then I would expect no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 0-1km helicity appears to get over 200 in spots tomorrow...especially ern areas. Pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 LOL, if he went to Delaware last year to see low level scud...then I would expect no less. LOL I'm pretty stoked for tomorrow... but as is usual with convection (especially in SNE) lots can go wrong so it's important to keep expectations in check. I'm in at 330 tomorrow morning for the AM shift. Will likely be a long long day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 0-1km helicity appears to get over 200 in spots tomorrow...especially ern areas. Pretty good. I've noticed the 0-1km and 0-2km shear increasing a bit and becoming more impressive... plus increasing 0-6km bulk shear. Solidly around 40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I've noticed the 0-1km and 0-2km shear increasing a bit and becoming more impressive... plus increasing 0-6km bulk shear. Solidly around 40 knots. It looks pretty good for wrn and ctrl areas. Storm motion seems like it would be west or perhaps a hair south of west which would be good for this area. We'll see I guess. That dry punch on the GFS is interesting. it's dry at 700mb but 850 td's are high. Perhaps good for downdrafts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Me = fail job interview at 2 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It looks pretty good for wrn and ctrl areas. Storm motion seems like it would be west or perhaps a hair south of west which would be good for this area. We'll see I guess. That dry punch on the GFS is interesting. it's dry at 700mb but 850 td's are high. Perhaps good for downdrafts?? Do you know of any forecast soundings showing DCAPE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Do you know of any forecast soundings showing DCAPE? Isnt that under the convection tab in bkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 wow at the 50 kt 500mb wind showing up now in northern CT at 00z on the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Do you know of any forecast soundings showing DCAPE? Earl Barker's site has it, but I still only see 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Earl Barker's site has it, but I still only see 12z data. Ah...I should've known to look there. The 18z NAM is there...just choose meso-eta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It looks pretty good for wrn and ctrl areas. Storm motion seems like it would be west or perhaps a hair south of west which would be good for this area. We'll see I guess. That dry punch on the GFS is interesting. it's dry at 700mb but 850 td's are high. Perhaps good for downdrafts?? Some good hailers ... mmmm ... huh huh? That's all I ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good call by BIrving on starting this thread when so many others have failed (this one might still, but what the heck) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Ah...I should've known to look there. The 18z NAM is there...just choose meso-eta. Oh ok. I just quickly looked at it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I picked either June 1st orJune 2nd for the first TOR warning in SNE in HFD Cty. Can't remember which Or was that thread for all of NEw England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some good hailers ... mmmm ... huh huh? That's all I ask for Could be if that instability is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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