ski MRG Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Could be if that instability is realized. What timing are we looking at here in WNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just got back from my baseball game...Conard wins a first round game for the first time since the early 2000's! This means though we have a game tomorrow at 3:30 PM...it's at New Britain though. HOLY CRAP at the 15z SREF...just wow...pretty damn impressive. My one worry is the amount of dry air aloft...I'm really hoping we can get those low-levels moistened up real good and not make it more difficult to mix down that dry air into the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 What timing are we looking at here in WNE? I'd say anytime from 1-4pm or so. It could be a little later if a second line forms along the actual coldfront. There might be a shwr or tstm near dawn as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I picked either June 1st orJune 2nd for the first TOR warning in SNE in HFD Cty. Can't remember which Or was that thread for all of NEw England? All of New England, so you failed... VT got one. If it was SNE, I think I would pick Berkshire county in Mass over Hartford, but they are a good pick too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 some nice cells in Michigan with a tornado warning in Mt. Pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just got back from my baseball game...Conard wins a first round game for the first time since the early 2000's! This means though we have a game tomorrow at 3:30 PM...it's at New Britain though. HOLY CRAP at the 15z SREF...just wow...pretty damn impressive. My one worry is the amount of dry air aloft...I'm really hoping we can get those low-levels moistened up real good and not make it more difficult to mix down that dry air into the lower levels. Can you go chasing Weds? I would since I have to stay home to wath my daughter (day care thing), but the boss would not like that. What sort of league do you play in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'd say anytime from 1-4pm or so. It could be a little later if a second line forms along the actual coldfront. There might be a shwr or tstm near dawn as well. Thanks Scott. At this point both BOX and ALB are rather tepid in their wording saying scattered storms though ALB does mention the possibility of severe. Very much looking forward to the cool shot coming in behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Can you go chasing Weds? I would since I have to stay home to wath my daughter (day care thing), but the boss would not like that. What sort of league do you play in? I don't play, I do the scorebook for where I went to high school. The game should be over by 5:30-6:00 PM...hopefully there is still stuff going on then. New Britain can be a good spot though for storms...I've been there a few times for some nasty storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I don't play, I do the scorebook for where I went to high school. The game should be over by 5:30-6:00 PM...hopefully there is still stuff going on then. New Britain can be a good spot though for storms...I've been there a few times for some nasty storms. Blizz's quote is truly disturbing, I just read it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Blizz's quote is truly disturbing, I just read it again. It's hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Blizz's quote is truly disturbing, I just read it again. I'll bet you did... Be careful at 2K... lightning on mountaintops can be hella fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'll bet you did... Be careful at 2K... lightning on mountaintops can be hella fun There are a few magnificent vistas on the property where you can watch the storms come in. There are lots of trees in the area that bear the mortal spiral wounds from lightning strikes. Have had a few close strikes there over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Lol...lots of excitement in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I love it! Meso mania dawn style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 nearly perfect EML in PIT this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Lol...lots of excitement in here. If I could have today's weather and not one tstm for the rest of the summer...I think I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 That stuff looks like it would be on a decent trajectory for SNE by dawn....if it can survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Lol...lots of excitement in here. It could rapidly turn into another disappointment tomorrow still. I think one of the nice things about this setup is we have good ML lapse rates and potentially amazing if we keep that remnant EML intact more like the GFS shows...one of the things that screwed us last June 6th was the cruddy ML lapse rates. We also got crappy sfc heating that day too which could still be an issue tomorrow, but as long as we avoid that, we shouldn't have the other issue in the MLs to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 That stuff looks like it would be on a decent trajectory for SNE by dawn....if it can survive. Let's hope it's gone by 14z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It could rapidly turn into another disappointment tomorrow still. I think one of the nice things about this setup is we have good ML lapse rates and potentially amazing if we keep that remnant EML intact more like the GFS shows...one of the things that screwed us last June 6th was the cruddy ML lapse rates. We also got crappy sfc heating that day too which could still be an issue tomorrow, but as long as we avoid that, we shouldn't have the other issue in the MLs to deal with. sfc heating really didn't blow...down this way at least...we got into the mid 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Let's hope it's gone by 14z lol It looks like it should be..though I suppose you never know if a crappy piece of altostratus forms for an hour or so late morning. I could see something where we have left over debris clouds till 10 or so, then it clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The lack of realization in Michigan today may be a red flag. They seem to lack a meaningful trigger - what has developed did so along the lake breeze boundary off of southern Lake Michigan, which extended toward the NE across the state during the afternoon. But by and large there appears to have been a lack of turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The lack of realization in Michigan today may be a red flag. They seem to lack a meaningful trigger - what has developed did so along the lake breeze boundary off of southern Lake Michigan, which extended toward the NE across the state during the afternoon. But by and large there appears to have been a lack of turn out. Yeah I'm wondering is this is some sort of signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The lack of realization in Michigan today may be a red flag. They seem to lack a meaningful trigger - what has developed did so along the lake breeze boundary off of southern Lake Michigan, which extended toward the NE across the state during the afternoon. But by and large there appears to have been a lack of turn out. It's sort of a catch 22 around here with strong cold fronts, because that usually means strong south or southwest winds which can hurt a lot of us. I'd rather see conditions favorable aloft and not have a strong front cutting into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The lack of realization in Michigan today may be a red flag. They seem to lack a meaningful trigger - what has developed did so along the lake breeze boundary off of southern Lake Michigan, which extended toward the NE across the state during the afternoon. But by and large there appears to have been a lack of turn out. Lol I thought there was an every other day rule with severe systems. The rule may not be rooted in fact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It could rapidly turn into another disappointment tomorrow still. I think one of the nice things about this setup is we have good ML lapse rates and potentially amazing if we keep that remnant EML intact more like the GFS shows...one of the things that screwed us last June 6th was the cruddy ML lapse rates. We also got crappy sfc heating that day too which could still be an issue tomorrow, but as long as we avoid that, we shouldn't have the other issue in the MLs to deal with. definitely a lot of positives. Hopefully this shakes out well...even if they don't survive the journey se to mby...I enjoy tracking these things. my concern at this stage is that punch of super dry mid level air after 20z or so. Those -30c 7h dews are a bit much. Might be part of why some guidance is relatively dry with the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 sfc heating really didn't blow...down this way at least...we got into the mid 80's. Eh, BDL had a high of 83F that day and there was a ton of cloud debris around. It certainly was far from ideal. We needed great sfc heating that day to make up for the cruddy ML lapse rates. It was upper 70s out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If I could have today's weather and not one tstm for the rest of the summer...I think I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Eh, BDL had a high of 83F that day and there was a ton of cloud debris around. It certainly was far from ideal. We needed great sfc heating that day to make up for the cruddy ML lapse rates. It was upper 70s out this way. Is this the 6/6/10 debacle that never existed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Eh, BDL had a high of 83F that day and there was a ton of cloud debris around. It certainly was far from ideal. We needed great sfc heating that day to make up for the cruddy ML lapse rates. It was upper 70s out this way. Ok...I thought it was a little higher. Yeah we did have a crap load of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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