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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Central/Western States

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

By my math, we've had 45 tornadoes in Indiana this year. SPC prelim is 39 but it seems that not everything made it in there yet. Record for one year is 49...June is one of the better months climatologically speaking and if it doesn't yield there's still plenty of time left. I think we'll probably break it. We've managed to avoid the really destructive events but I think the concern going into spring was warranted.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

By my math, we've had 45 tornadoes in Indiana this year. SPC prelim is 39 but it seems that not everything made it in there yet. Record for one year is 49...June is one of the better months climatologically speaking and if it doesn't yield there's still plenty of time left. I think we'll probably break it. We've managed to avoid the really destructive events but I think the concern going into spring was warranted.

I think you will have no problem surpassing 50, I wouldn't be shocked if you made a run at 60 or more.

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KokomoWX

KokomoWX

Posted
Posted

By my math, we've had 45 tornadoes in Indiana this year. SPC prelim is 39 but it seems that not everything made it in there yet. Record for one year is 49...June is one of the better months climatologically speaking and if it doesn't yield there's still plenty of time left. I think we'll probably break it. We've managed to avoid the really destructive events but I think the concern going into spring was warranted.

Here is an amazing graphic for Dubois Co. (I guess it is our version of Van Wert in Ohio.)

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radionicist

radionicist

Posted
Posted

Wet May? You bet:

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

544 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT FORT WAYNE...

AS OF 4 PM EDT...THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR MAY AT FORT WAYNE IS

9.13 INCHES. THIS MAKES MAY 2011 THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT FORT

WAYNE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL IN MAY WAS 8.80

INCHES SET IN 1991. THIS RECORD IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...AS MORE RAIN

IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SO FAR...MAY 2011 IS THE 8TH WETTEST MONTH ALL TIME AT FORT WAYNE.

THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD IS JULY 1986...WHEN 11.00 INCHES OF RAIN

FELL AT FORT WAYNE.

It's still drizzling this morning. By my reckoning, we've had precipitation on 42 of the last 48 days here in Putnam County, Ohio.

We missed out on the tornadoes (thankfully), but we did get some more of this action:

otto1_hg.png

Bring on that torch. :)

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

3-4 day late May "heat wave", relative to the time of year, starts tomorrow here. You don't have to go back far to find a similar occurrence, as last May had a pretty good hit of heat. That one will make this one look weak in comparison I guess due to last year having a longer duration (consecutive days).

2010 (WL COOP high temp - LAF high temp)

5/24: 89º - 90º

5/25: 90º - 87º

5/26: 89º - 90º

5/27: 90º - 88º

5/28: 86º - 87º

5/29: 87º - 88º

5/30: 89º - 91º

5/31: 92º - 86º

6/1: 86º - 85º

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

Temps have been a lot more pleasant the last couple days, though that isn't saying much. Yesterday was just about my ideal May day (assuming no chance of severe weather is present). Aside from the GFS, most of the models are barely nipping us with both the warm and cold fronts in the next couple days. Pretty typical given how the year has gone.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

Very warm, wet month here in northeast Ohio. Plugging in the forecast values for the rest of the month, and assuming no additional rainfall (although there is a 20% chance of rain tomorrow):

Average high 71.1 (+2.1)

Average low 50.9 (+4.8)

Average mean 61.0 (+3.4)

Precipitation 8.03 (+4.58) **2nd wettest on record**

Today was the 11th straight day with above normal temperatures... the NWS says warmer than normal temps will continue for at least the next week. It's looking like we may have another hot summer on the way, especially if the rains finally slow down.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Today was the 11th straight day with above normal temperatures... the NWS says warmer than normal temps will continue for at least the next week. It's looking like we may have another hot summer on the way, especially if the rains finally slow down.

Our local met is going a +9 departure for this summer here. Could he be too low?!?!?

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Rolling thunder here in Elkhart Dunlap as storms approach from the west. I'm beginning to wonder if a training effect will set up tonight in my area westward to Chi town and across IL that will pose a threat of heavy rain.

LOT added heavy rain to the wording for tonight/tomorrow. Pretty sure the warm front will light up pretty good as it pulls north.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

Is it really going to rain here? The forecast was for dry conditions tonight, but the NWS just updated and now says thunderstorms with heavy rain likely. I'm just not seeing it... I see an MCS with embedded heavy rain but I would think it would dissipate before getting here and we would get nothing but sprinkles / light showers.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
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Posted

Is it really going to rain here? The forecast was for dry conditions tonight, but the NWS just updated and now says thunderstorms with heavy rain likely. I'm just not seeing it... I see an MCS with embedded heavy rain but I would think it would dissipate before getting here and we would get nothing but sprinkles / light showers.

You're definitely going to see rain tonight (by that, I mean more than sprinkles/light showers).

It's been raining here for the past half hour.

I do however doubt there's much convective activity this far north tonight, just a steady stratiform rain.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

DTX going with 90F for Mon and low 90s for Tue with a possible Heat Advisory.

THE VERY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE DEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

TUESDAY...GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HEIGHTS FOR THIS TIME

OF YEAR! NOT SURPRISING THEN THAT THE TEMPS WILL PUSH 90 FOR BOTH

MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE WARMER 850 TEMPS...BUT WE WILL

NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THAT HIGH. BETTER MIXING ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN

THE 850 TEMPS MODERATE. RECORDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE IN THE

LOW TO MID 90S. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL

CAP US FROM ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION.

TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY. LOW TEMPS MONDAY

NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. DEW POINTS

WILL MAINTAIN IN THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE SECOND DAY

OF THE HEAT AND THE EARLY TIME OF YEAR FOR THE HEAT...ESPECIALLY

AFTER THIS SPRING...PLACES MORE HEAT STRESS ON THE POPULATION.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

:sizzle:

KDPA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/29/2011  0000 UTC                       
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
SUN  29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05 CLIMO
X/N  76| 63  92| 66  87| 59  80| 55  84| 66  89| 66  88| 64  86 53 78
TMP  72| 66  86| 70  80| 62  75| 60  79| 69  83| 70  82| 68  80      
DPT  64| 64  66| 64  62| 55  53| 55  61| 64  67| 65  65| 62  63      
CLD  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
WND  10|  9  17| 14  21| 16  13|  8  12| 11  14| 11  15| 13  14      
P12  53| 10   6| 13  27| 16  13| 12  21| 25  16| 22  19| 25  16999999
P24    |     12|     27|     28|     27|     34|     31|     33   999
Q12   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
T12  57| 26   6| 10  40| 20   3|  7  20| 27  21| 29  18| 23  20      
T24    | 67    | 15    | 48    |  8    | 41    | 37    | 38          
PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   0|  0   0      
PSN   2|  0   2|  1   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0      
PRS   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0      
TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      
SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

My notion that we wouldn't see a slight risk for severe weather again until Mid-June is looking more and more likely. I got criticized for making that prediction too early but I just had a feeling we would get out of the stormy pattern just in time for the warmth that could support severe weather.

Thanks for playing.

post-147-0-94726800-1306651106.gif

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