dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It might be time to lock something up Yeah, Some of the people in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 At this point in the year...just be grateful if it snows..lol. We've been discussing all that energy hanging back, but I think models are slowly becoming a little more clearer and defined with everything. It seems like all that energy rounding the trough helps to slow down the low pressure and elongate it to the southwest, but we still aren't exactly clear how the s/w that ignites cyclogenesis and the extra energy rounding the trough will interact. We still could have crappy wave interference and a disorganized mess, but I think we have a good signal for some sort of East Coast low. I think what we have to wait and see, is how models battle out the role of these s/w's and which one becomes dominant. It seems like we might have to put all our eggs in one basket, with the s/w that develops the low pressure off of NC around hr 78-84. This "middle" shortwave is kind of a newer thing we've seen the last run or two. The first one is generally flat and goes off to the east pretty quickly...the one we mentioned early on that didn't have that much room to amplify....and we had the intense s/w energy well behind it. But now we are seeing a leading piece of that last s/w becoming more of a focus for cyclogenesis. But just where that lead piece is int he flow is an uncertainty in the models right now. The GFS wants to have it close enough to the main energy to let it amplify up the east side of it. The Euro not quite as much. The Ukie does it in the form of a nuclear explosion as the main potent energy actually catches it from behind and then phases it into a monster...but while E of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ray just to be clear, what I meant earlier is that we could get the low closer and still benefit from dynamic cooling...but eventually this only goes so far and warming becomes an issue if the low becomes too close to SNE. I didn't mean that temps would warm for every mile that the low comes closer to SNE. I should have been clearer. No worries....I was just growing a bit more weary out of deference to you; I wasn't annoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Stop reading day 5 point-and-clicks Yes sir! I was just surprised that snow wasn't mentioned whatsoever. Usually the phrase rain or snow is used when there is uncertainty. Are these long range zone forecasts based primarily on climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The models today are certainly placing more emphasis on 1 of the last 2 s/w's Just to be clear..we have three waves of low pressure. Wave 1: This moves off of ORF around 12z Thursday. Wave 2: This develops Thursday night and moves northeast..off the SNE coast. Wave 3: This is evident in the Tennessee valley Thursday night and is associated with the last piece of vorticity rounding the bend of the trough. Models now dissolve this as the circulation of low pressure off of SNE, overwhelms it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yes sir! I was just surprised that snow wasn't mentioned whatsoever. Usually the phrase rain or snow is used when there is uncertainty. Not being a dic* to you, but those point-and-clicks simply defer to climo at this extended lead....which at this stage is rain for most of us. Even closer in, they are really generalized....blase product, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not being a dic* to you, but those point in clicks simply defer to climo at this extended lead....which at this stage is rain for most of us. Even closer in, they are really generalized....blase product, if yoiu ask me. Best thing to read the AFD which certainly mentions the possibility of snow SINCE THE TRACK AND TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IT MAKES IT EVEN HARDER TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF WET SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. SINCE ITS EARLY APRIL...THE BEST CHANCE OF WET SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WET SNOW WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE PERFECT TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 UCONN winning the title? I wish.. Kentucky scares me esp the fact that Uconn drubbed them by 17 points earlier in the season..they'll be playing with added incentive I hope we can get he snow in here Thursday night..so there's snow on the ground Friday morning..much easier to stack it up when it stats at night. Nothing worse than if it doesn't start till Fri noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not being a dic* to you, but those point-and-clicks simply defer to climo at this extended lead....which at this stage is rain for most of us. Even closer in, they are really generalized....blase product, if you ask me. Yeah I usually don't read them. The discussions are where its @ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Best thing to read the AFD which certainly mentions the possibility of snow SINCE THE TRACK AND TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IT MAKES IT EVEN HARDER TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF WET SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. SINCE ITS EARLY APRIL...THE BEST CHANCE OF WET SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WET SNOW WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE PERFECT TRACK. Yes...the AFD is much more specific and divulges much more RE their thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z DGEX has a pretty huge weenie solution (big surprise!), esp if you tick it north about 50 miles. AWT I hate being this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This "middle" shortwave is kind of a newer thing we've seen the last run or two. The first one is generally flat and goes off to the east pretty quickly...the one we mentioned early on that didn't have that much room to amplify....and we had the intense s/w energy well behind it. But now we are seeing a leading piece of that last s/w becoming more of a focus for cyclogenesis. But just where that lead piece is int he flow is an uncertainty in the models right now. The GFS wants to have it close enough to the main energy to let it amplify up the east side of it. The Euro not quite as much. The Ukie does it in the form of a nuclear explosion as the main potent energy actually catches it from behind and then phases it into a monster...but while E of NE. The Ukie goes Fukujima on the Isle of Shoals buoy....lol. The GFS is definitely stronger with that middle wave. If we time it right, it could really slow the low pressure and keep it off the Cape but I wonder if that last piece of energy may try and give it the boot. The euro solution tries to slow down the northeast movement of the low, but I could see a 12hr omega bomb thanks to that middle s/w, and then leftover lighter precip thanks to prolonged ne flow as the last piece of vorticity rounds the bend. Just one of many outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Don't know how we'll get it done, but prepare for 6-12" below 800' and around 1' or more for 800'+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Don't know how we'll get it done, but prepare for 6-12" below 800' and around 1' or more for 800'+. Kevin over for a visit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Don't know how we'll get it done, but prepare for 6-12" below 800' and around 1' or more for 800'+. Violently agree to the point of ripping your BUM equipment sweatshirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It might be time to lock something up Red Sox winning the division? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Violently agree to the point of ripping your BUM apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 4/6/82 Redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The Ukie goes Fukujima on the Isle of Shoals buoy....lol. The GFS is definitely stronger with that middle wave. If we time it right, it could really slow the low pressure and keep it off the Cape but I wonder if that last piece of energy may try and give it the boot. The euro solution tries to slow down the northeast movement of the low, but I could see a 12hr omega bomb thanks to that middle s/w, and then leftover lighter precip thanks to prolonged ne flow as the last piece of vorticity rounds the bend. Just one of many outcomes. Whatever scenario plays out, we'll need big omega to get any type of significant accumulations. Nothing worse than accumulating half an inch of qpf over 12-18 hours as a steady light snow at 33-34F and you end up with 2-3" of slop. Big omega is definitely what we are looking for. 18z GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Sports forum guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ensembles are pretty far se. It appears they are weak with that middle s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Lots of lalalalock it up in here, fantasy storm, fantasy division titles, they all look great on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Didn't we have an April event in '07? I think I got like 4'' from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ensembles are pretty far se. It appears they are weak with that middle s/w. Yeah that ensemble mean is definitely quite a bit SE. That's the furthest SE I've seen it...out of any of the ensembles (previous GFS/Euro.GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I wonder if Wachusett will change their April 3rd closing date? I know I know, getting ahead of myself Ray, gotta hand it to ya, nice and bold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Will, Scooter.........do you guys put any faith whatsoever into the GFS, especially given its recent performance. I am sure you guys use it for some guidance, but do you look at that run, then see the ens and just laugh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ensembles are pretty far se. It appears they are weak with that middle s/w. What a conundrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I wonder if Wachusett will change their April 3rd closing date? I know I know, getting ahead of myself Ray, gotta hand it to ya, here is my booty now grab and take hold! Naughty school teacher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Didn't we have an April event in '07? I think I got like 4'' from that one. Tax day...I got sh**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Tax day...I got sh**. There was an event before that, on Apr 4-5 I think. I had about 2.5" or something. It looked a lot better about 60 hours out and then trended NW and we got a lot more rain but it changed to snow and we picked up some accumulation...even your area probably got an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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