powderfreak Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think Pete might call this big big winter incoming Ahhh, beautiful clown map. That'll do clown, that'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'd lock the 12z GFS.....give me 5" of snow and I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 nam likes the 3 wave idea, 1 and 2 miss and 3 looks poised to be very amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not sure if this was already discussed, but as of now BOX is going with a wet scenario for eastern areas: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...CHELSEA...REVERE...WINTHROP 345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I wish I could lock in the 12z GFS... love that track for the interior though. Blue snow bomb for the Berkshires, Greens, Whites, and Maine mountains. Hopefully that is what happens given the number of people who have been posting recently that snow in their backyards does nothing this time of year and they want to keep it in ski country. They only have themselves to blame. Gonna be a bummer to be outside looking in on a snow globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 12Z GFS a fantastic run for the snow weenies here in the Berks. GFS suggests a nice moderate snowfall for Thursday night and Friday morning before the main show comes in Friday night and Saturday morning with a wind whipped blue snow bomb. A track just inside the BM or over CC is ideal for this area to be right in the comma head deformation zone. Best case scenario for this area would be a 3-6 or 4-8 deal with storm #1 and a slow moving April version of the 1/12/11 event for storm #2. That would be sweet. One way or another I think the interior high terrain gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Again, that is my defualt thinking, as well.....but Scooter startled me and I usually defer to him I didn't mean to come across as a downer..lol. Like Will was saying it kept warming in the mid levels, but not sure exactly why..it just seemed a little strange. That, and yet the 540 line was over se mass, indicating it's plenty cold aloft. However, as the lift exploded Friday night, 850's crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I didn't mean to come across as a downer..lol. Like Will was saying it kept warming in the mid levels, but not sure exactly why..it just seemed a little strange. That, and yet the 540 line was over se mass, indicating it's plenty cold aloft. However, as the lift exploded Friday night, 850's crashed. Current best guess on timing? an unfair question probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Current best guess on timing? an unfair question probably. Looks like it wants to start earlier in the morning near and perhaps prior to dawn Friday, but it depends on the model. The GFS has it earlier say 3-4am and the euro doesn't get it going until later Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks like it wants to start earlier in the morning near and perhaps prior to dawn Friday, but it depends on the model. The GFS has it earlier say 3-4am and the euro doesn't get it going until later Friday morning. Thanks Scott. Cutting it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ridge is def flatter out west on the 54 hour of the GFS... yet somehow its a tad diggier and further west with the trough 18z is going to deliver big time... large low at SC hour 72 I think this is going to be a solution where we have one BOMB of a low instead of an appetizer and a Major storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS is pretty strong with that s/w that ignites cyclogenesis off the NC coast, at hr 84. Looks like a big hit..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z GFS is going to be an interior snowbomb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS definitely focusing the brunt on the middle wave at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That thing just nukes SNE, lol. Pretty hard to take it seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It's almost a tamed version of the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Occludes and just creeps NNE thru the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Now that's a thump for SNE... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Occludes and just creeps NNE thru the GOM Its way too fast for what we need... We need this thing to SLOW down for maximum potential. If it slows down and kind of waits for that energy then the 500 will close as the storm is strengthening then it really is KABOOM time. This almost reminds be 1/12 One thing that is suspect is the 500 map at 108 of the GFS.. Look at all of that energy left behind in the SE while the storm is almost near N.S. Will or others is that suspect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That 18z GFS solution is also favorable given the timing. A good chunk of it occurs at night and early in the morning. Ultimate weenie solution would be for that middle s/w to ignite cyclogenesis and have the low stall and creep nw towards ACK as that last piece of vorticity rounds the bend. This solution is still somwhat progressive, but it has a 6hr period where things go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Its way too fast for what we need... We need this thing to SLOW down for maximum potential. If it slows down and kind of waits for that energy then the 500 will close as the storm is strengthening then it really is KABOOM time. This almost reminds be 1/12 Or needs to develop later, It occludes before it gets here but its the 18z GFS 90 hours out so its just another possible solution at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z DGEX has a pretty huge weenie solution (big surprise!), esp if you tick it north about 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Its way too fast for what we need... We need this thing to SLOW down for maximum potential. If it slows down and kind of waits for that energy then the 500 will close as the storm is strengthening then it really is KABOOM time. This almost reminds be 1/12 Yeah, definitely too fast. You don't need .75" of QPF (as snow) to fall in SNH... what you really need is 1.75" right? haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not sure if this was already discussed, but as of now BOX is going with a wet scenario for eastern areas: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOSTON...CHELSEA...REVERE...WINTHROP 345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. Stop reading day 5 point-and-clicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Its way too fast for what we need... We need this thing to SLOW down for maximum potential. If it slows down and kind of waits for that energy then the 500 will close as the storm is strengthening then it really is KABOOM time. This almost reminds be 1/12 One thing that is suspect is the 500 map at 108 of the GFS.. Look at all of that energy left behind in the SE while the storm is almost near N.S. Will or others is that suspect? At this point in the year...just be grateful if it snows..lol. We've been discussing all that energy hanging back, but I think models are slowly becoming a little more clearer and defined with everything. It seems like all that energy rounding the trough helps to slow down the low pressure and elongate it to the southwest, but we still aren't exactly clear how the s/w that ignites cyclogenesis and the extra energy rounding the trough will interact. We still could have crappy wave interference and a disorganized mess, but I think we have a good signal for some sort of East Coast low. I think what we have to wait and see, is how models battle out the role of these s/w's and which one becomes dominant. It seems like we might have to put all our eggs in one basket, with the s/w that develops the low pressure off of NC around hr 78-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 At this point in the year...just be grateful if it snows..lol. We've been discussing all that energy hanging back, but I think models are slowly becoming a little more clearer and defined with everything. It seems like all that energy rounding the trough helps to slow down the low pressure and elongate it to the southwest, but we still aren't exactly clear how the s/w that ignites cyclogenesis and the extra energy rounding the trough will interact. We still could have crappy wave interference and a disorganized mess, but I think we have a good signal for some sort of East Coast low. I think what we have to wait and see, is how models battle out the role of these s/w's and which one becomes dominant. It seems like we might have to put all our eggs in one basket, with the s/w that develops the low pressure off of NC around hr 78-84. The models today are certainly placing more emphasis on 1 of the last 2 s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ray just to be clear, what I meant earlier is that we could get the low closer and still benefit from dynamic cooling...but eventually this only goes so far and warming becomes an issue if the low becomes too close to SNE. I didn't mean that temps would warm for every mile that the low comes closer to SNE. I should have been clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It might be time to lock something up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It might be time to lock something up UCONN winning the title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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