ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Wow on the D6-7 Euro...doesnt get us verbatim, but for the moment I wasn't even thinking about it. Just seeing the 5h pattern and what it does is pretty awesome. Almost phases the pv into the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 At least its a greater chance than most of our severe wx threats verifying. Not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Wow on the D6-7 Euro...doesnt get us verbatim, but for the moment I wasn't even thinking about it. Just seeing the 5h pattern and what it does is pretty awesome. Almost phases the pv into the southern stream. That's the storm I was hoping would come closer, if the H5 pattern would amplify. Pretty cool pattern with the H5 trough digging in the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 A lot is going to depend on how much the rollover ridge over central Canada can bridge with the ridging near/east of Greenland. The Euro shows the ridges bridging nicely by Wed-Thu, which allows the polar vortex to plunge south and nearly phase with the southern stream system. Interestingly, the GFS ensemble is much closer to the Euro than the op GFS, and the Euro ensemble is very similar to the op Euro. Both ensembles show much more bridging of the 2 ridges than the op GFS, and have the Canadian Maritimes vortex further NE with less suppression. Op GFS: GFS ensemble: Euro ensemble: Wow on the D6-7 Euro...doesnt get us verbatim, but for the moment I wasn't even thinking about it. Just seeing the 5h pattern and what it does is pretty awesome. Almost phases the pv into the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 euro destroys DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 euro destroys DC Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 Nice to see the Euro contiuine the snowstorm next week. Pretty consistant signal..IF you look past qpf and look at the actual setup. COuld be a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Nice to see the Euro contiuine the snowstorm next week. Pretty consistant signal..IF you look past qpf and look at the actual setup. COuld be a big one This is different than what was shown yesterday. We still need a lot of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I will admit to intrigue upon glancing over the nightly teleconnector layout provided by CPC and CDC. CDC showing a sudden rising of some +2SD in the PNA taking the values squarely positive as we end out the month and head on into April. Concertedly, the NAO is drilling negative at both agencies. (CPC concurse with positive PNA) This is an abrupt appearance of teleconnector convergence for cold signal, and potential storminess... It is important to note that climatology is the sum of all events devided by N occurrences, and does not outright predict an event can or cannot happen - . Most deterministic guidance were teetering wth something big but failed to pull the trigger in their respective late middle and extended ranges from off the 00z runs. They have intermediate stream Pac dynamics skooting through the 35-40 N latitudes, while emerging high level blocking pearls out SPV nodes across 55 N over top. That sets the generalized potential for subsuming scenarios (deep phasers) at any time, and this is what the deterministic runs show - retrograde above 40 N with progressiong beneath that latitude, which puts the entire 30-60N band into a positive (cyclonic) vorticity potential. With these teleconnectors aligning they way they are and given to the observed deterministic guidance types just beginning to follow-suit, at just about any model run going forward there could emerge a big deal in the OV-MA-NE regions. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z NAM delivers some Berkshire love... Its marginal but I bet Pete and Mike are snowing above 1,000ft in this solution. Of course, with weenie goggles on, a secondary low would form near Long Island and track near the south coast, effectively locking in the cold for SNE keeping this all snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z NAM delivers some Berkshire love... Its marginal but I bet Pete and Mike are snowing above 1,000ft in this solution. Of course, with weenie goggles on, a secondary low would form near Long Island and track near the south coast, effectively locking in the cold for SNE keeping this all snow and sleet. I suppose I might be able to get a few flakes at 900 feet in the central hills if the NAM was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I suppose I might be able to get a few flakes at 900 feet in the central hills if the NAM was right Yeah, its at least worth watching for some front end wintry precipitation. No doubt at least the hills of SNE see some flakes/trace with that cold (for this time of year) high moving off the coast as the WAA precip works in. It also wouldn't be surprising to see a coating-2" too in the Berks and ORH hills. Its not much, but the signal has been there for some light overrunning wintry precip. Its something to follow at least. Edit: I did just look at the timing of it... of course its an 84 hour NAM prog but if it comes in between 18z-00z, accums will be difficult in a marginal situation this time of year. Be much better if we could get it to come in at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 Nice hit for me over to NW RI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Yeah, its at least worth watching for some front end wintry precipitation. No doubt at least the hills of SNE see some flakes/trace with that cold (for this time of year) high moving off the coast as the WAA precip works in. It also wouldn't be surprising to see a coating-2" too in the Berks and ORH hills. Its not much, but the signal has been there for some light overrunning wintry precip. Its something to follow at least. Wetbulb city if that stuff comes in quick enough. Probably 32-33F paste if it happens. Too bad it wasn't night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 HEY SNOW FREAKS! Temperatures have shot up 20 degrees in the last hour!!! Stop clinging to winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Nice hit for me over to NW RI lol Looks like IJD gets more than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 HEY SNOW FREAKS! Temperatures have shot up 20 degrees in the last hour!!! Stop clinging to winter!!! :weenie: Go back to your wind thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 HEY SNOW FREAKS! Temperatures have shot up 20 degrees in the last hour!!! Stop clinging to winter!!! Worry about the dingleberries clinging on your fanny..and we'll worry about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 The whole setup is not ideal for sure with lots of se flow, but it should be a "dry" se flow with some decent wetbulb potential for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 The whole setup is not ideal for sure with lots of se flow, but it should be a "dry" se flow with some decent wetbulb potential for some. I'm not really expecting anything, but who knows. A couple inches on the front end if it somehow occurred would be more excitement wx-wise than we've seen so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 :weenie: Go back to your wind thread. I'm the only one there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I'm not really expecting anything, but who knows. A couple inches on the front end if it somehow occurred would be more excitement wx-wise than we've seen so far this month. Anything is more exciting..lol. I hope we can pull something out of a hat, later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 Anything is more exciting..lol. I hope we can pull something out of a hat, later next week. Oh we will AWT's will be handed out like Halloween candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Oh we will AWT's will be handed out like Halloween candy Think so? I don't mean a few mangled flakes up to an inch. I'm talking something that gives more than 2 or 3 inches. The euro had the most interesting setup that I've seen in the last 6 weeks, but I want to see it continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 The last few GFS op runs seem like they were initialized in Kevin's minivan as well. Quite the stormy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Oh we will AWT's will be handed out like Halloween candy Your AWT's are off basking in the 60F and sun right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 The last few GFS op runs seem like they were initialized in Kevin's minivan as well. Quite the stormy period. Yeah... definitely looks interesting that last week of March with lows tracking south of the region. I bet there's one more "event" in there but whether its 1-3" that only sticks to grass and cars, or something more substantial like 6", is the question. There's always that last light to moderate wet snowfall that sort of kicks the general public in the nads, weeks after everyone assumes snow is done for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Yeah... definitely looks interesting that last week of March with lows tracking south of the region. I bet there's one more "event" in there but whether its 1-3" that only sticks to grass and cars, or something more substantial like 6", is the question. There's always that last light to moderate wet snowfall that sort of kicks the general public in the nads, weeks after everyone assumes snow is done for the year. I love that. It's also part of the reason I have a love/hate relationship for days like today. Sure it feels nice, but this won't be back for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 GFS looks better. It's still not exactly phased and devlops a little late, but a nice throwback of snow to NJ at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 GFS looks better. It's still not exactly phased and devlops a little late, but a nice throwback of snow to NJ at the tail end. The north trend has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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