Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

March 2011 general obs/discussion thread


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

Part two:

I just looked at the NAO-AO-PNA and the NAO looks to trend to neutral alightly positive, the AO rages positive and the PNA after trending neutral looks to go positive fairly strongly. Wouldn't that be considered a warm signal? I heard last year the indicies were negative yet it was warmer....not sure how to interpret the data, but it looks like a "warmer" signal. Any help would be appreciated.

+PNA usually teleconnects to troughing in the east and ridging in the west.

We want a -PNA for sustained warm weather (the tanking to a neutral PNA showed itself with our warm weather the past 2 days and will flex its muscle again next week preceeding the potential wintry event).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 713
  • Created
  • Last Reply

:devilsmiley::weight_lift:

Have not noticed any budding yet around here.

BTW.. The GOM is recovering nicely. Actually a nice expanding area of above normal SSTs down there. Some very decent warming as of late with 70+ SSTs making a run towards the coast and a fast growing area of 75+ SSTs from just west of Tampa to south of New Orleans down to Cuba/s.FL etc. That is some very nice juice. Now if we can get things to come together. :popcorn:

There are so many conflicting signals with this year's severe weather prospects.

If we can just get a moderately negative PNA and an east based -NAO (assuming it's negative) then we're good. These warmer temps and drought conditions won't mean much if a tight baroclinic zone sets up and doesn't budge (well, for the areas that keep geting hit it will).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

+PNA usually teleconnects to troughing in the east and ridging in the west.

We want a -PNA for sustained warm weather (the tanking to a neutral PNA showed itself with our warm weather the past 2 days and will flex its muscle again next week preceeding the potential wintry event).

Thank you Powerball, seems like that PNA signal is one that can overcome anything. Tom Skilling was elduding to the prospects of sticking snow next week, beyond 7 days. Almost a 70% chance climo history wise of at least 1 plus inches yet to come with 3 inches greater than 50%.

I sure hope we see an active spring though, but that euro sure puts admaper on things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alright folks--no more sniping back and forth please. I understand frustrations can happen with weather--but if anyone has issues with one another please keep it to PM. Nobody wants this to be a place where they are afraid to post something about weather for fear of retaliation either way (spring weather or winter weather). To all there own--but please no attacks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:devilsmiley::weight_lift:

Have not noticed any budding yet around here.

BTW.. The GOM is recovering nicely. Actually a nice expanding area of above normal SSTs down there. Some very decent warming as of late with 70+ SSTs making a run towards the coast and a fast growing area of 75+ SSTs from just west of Tampa to south of New Orleans down to Cuba/s.FL etc. That is some very nice juice. Now if we can get things to come together. :popcorn:

I am certainly no tree expert lol, but I think the budding all are talking about are on the maple trees. I always called this "pre-budding". Its those red fuzzy buds that come out much earlier than any other buds on other trees, then they fall to the ground and make a mess and the spring buds come out. These are the only buds Ive noticed. FWIW if anything this seems to be a week or so later than many years. Its funny too, as the red buds are noticeable (esp when its sunny) but then once they fall off and the spring buds come out, the tree to the naked eye looks winter bare again for at least another 1-2 weeks (when in reality its the spring buds ready to pop).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No matter how mild it is, I don't think I've ever really seen most trees even begin getting leaves until late April at the very earliest. Some years it's early May. Some bushes may start to develop leaves earlier but generally around here, it's the month of May when trees really develop leaves. Grass usually starts turning green in early April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No matter how mild it is, I don't think I've ever really seen most trees even begin getting leaves until late April at the very earliest. Some years it's early May. Some bushes may start to develop leaves earlier but generally around here, it's the month of May when trees really develop leaves. Grass usually starts turning green in early April.

Yeah we are still a long way from leaves. Last year was one of the earliest greenups Ive ever seen, some trees started getting leaves by mid-April, although usually its late April. We get them before you do though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tree buds here are getting a bit bigger, but still a ways away from opening up. We usually don't see leaves popping out until mid April. We mainly have elms, hackberries, and sycamores here in town. Luckily we don't have very many of the messy maples and their ridiculous seed crops.

Many of the models are giving us over an inch of rain later tonight and tomorrow, but it looks like the main severe threat will stay just to our south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most of the trees that you see budding up are your Silver Maples and some of the cold hardy dogwoods, mainly Cornelian Cherries whose flowers laugh off any cold weather practicly. Typically what causes leaf growth is not based on temps but more on available sunlight. The gloomier it is the less likely leaf growth is initiated. I see this year being around April 15th or so for the Crabapples and Maples and your Ash trees closer to May or about 2 weeks later. Shrubs along roadways that take in heat should see some greening in about 10 days or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I went to the mall today and was surprised to see a small snow(more like ice) pile hanging in there in a shady area in the parking lot(this was a huge snow pile a month ago)

This is all that remains of the blizzard...it's on life support and won't survive the warmer rains coming up this weekend :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last spec of snow in my backyard melted today, was once a large 5 foot pile. Its lifespan was December 10th - March 19th. (Pic below from 2-21-11).

2723-800.jpg

After two days well in the 60s this week, many parking lots are now snow-free, though quite a few do still have dirty piles, especially in the shade. Still large ones at the mall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last spec of snow in my backyard melted today, was once a large 5 foot pile. Its lifespan was December 10th - March 19th. (Pic below from 2-21-11).

Still got some icy patches of snow hanging around the edges of my driveway in the shade :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attended a fine all day Advanced Spotters Training session hosted by IWX in Goshen today. Dan McCarthy, now meteorologist in charge at NWS Indianapolis and formerly of SPC gave an outstanding presentation on the inner workings of SPC processes. I knew there was no high risk for hail but didn't know it was because there have been only 4 deaths due to hail in the past 50 years as the reason. Had a fun afternoon scenario simulation where several svr storm event radars were presented and we could see a loop of both reflectivity and radial velocity over the course of the event and would have to choose where and what type of warning to issue based on seeing that. Guess it's a simpler version of what Tornado Tony is doing in his thread with synoptic situational set ups.:thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS looks like it's going to be farther south than the 12z run with next weekend's potential event.

edit: lol, would be something to get whiffed to the south by a late March snow event

gfs_pcp_204s.gif

Whole pattern it's been advertising the last several runs would make this the most wintry start to spring in several years (2005 is the last one that pops to my mind) if it were to verify.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...