ROOSTA Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Top of the hill here is still under deep snowpack. Deep as in general 12"+ no bare spots to be had anywhere and still 3-4' snowpiles! What Melt Down? Still a friggin glacier out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 What is sad is this post..and you giving in to the warm ideas..what a shame Check out the point and click forecasts through Sunday....those who have snow keep some (or most depending on ele-location), but those running near E mostly in SNE are cooked. For ex: Moosup CT is above freezing all week, including lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Hopefully we can avoid a huge torching 3 inch rainstorm....we would get a double whammy. The interior snow pack is so full of water that any rain will run right off it and if its a warm 50F+ rain storm then the extra rapid melting of the pack will swell rivers/streams to pretty serious levels. Much better to melt it off gradually. Where a lot of the source regions are of these rivers/streams probably has 6"+ of liquid equivalent in the pack: whether it's early next week or the event after...i think avoiding hydro issues is going to be pretty tough. like you say, hopefully it's a slow melt down. i still think there could be a pretty substantial rain event early next week with relatively high t/tds. i guess the hope is everything remains progressive...or the brunt of it is west of our longitude. there's a bunch of model solutions out there that would pose problems early next week. someplace between new england and the lakes is going to get a good dose of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 whether it's early next week or the event after...i think avoiding hydro issues is going to be pretty tough. like you say, hopefully it's a slow melt down. i still think there could be a pretty substantial rain event early next week with relatively high t/tds. i guess the hope is everything remains progressive...or the brunt of it is west of our longitude. there's a bunch of model solutions out there that would pose problems early next week. someplace between new england and the lakes is going to get a good dose of water. Yeah I agree here. Especially given an active pattern we will have several chances for major hydro issues. It will take a 3"+ high td/temp rainstorm over a good chunk of SNE to cause some big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 When I saw saw the thread title I thought it was about Ray, or maybe John. Now I see. On this 1st day of BirvingSpring I do indeed have some melting of the 16 inches of snow on parts of my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah I agree here. Especially given an active pattern we will have several chances for major hydro issues. It will take a 3"+ high td/temp rainstorm over a good chunk of SNE to cause some big problems. i think duration of warmth is the big question/concern at this point. definitely like you said having a heavy rain event (3"+ type of deal) would pose a problem...but to me the issue is unlocking the water in the snowpack. that's only going to happen incrementally - and slowly - if it's a continuation of the current up/down temp regime. if we get the ec ens type of set-up with a solid couple of days of mild air followed by or concurrent with a good sized rain event that would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 epic epic flooding on the connecticut river this year bank it! Yeah I agree here. Especially given an active pattern we will have several chances for major hydro issues. It will take a 3"+ high td/temp rainstorm over a good chunk of SNE to cause some big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 i believe this is the first euro run since this rain signal emerged that has really hit the qpf hard...widespread 3-4" totals in SNE by tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 i believe this is the first euro run since this rain signal emerged that has really hit the qpf hard...widespread 3-4" totals in SNE by tuesday morning. While it may not unleash NNE snowpack, it would be a basin wide event for large rivers, at least priming the pack for something down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 While it may not unleash NNE snowpack, it would be a basin wide event for large rivers, at least priming the pack for something down the road. how are the ec ens pop. looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Lots of snow melt in middletown,ct. The piles have gotten a lot smaller,grass,dirt and broken tree limbs showing everywhere. The shaded areas are still holding a decent snow pack. Harbor park restaurant will be flooded once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 how are the ec ens pop. looking? They are high in western New England and drop just a bit as everything shifts east, but still high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 They are high in western New England and drop just a bit as everything shifts east, but still high. cool thanks. i think the gefs actually had like 60% probs for 24 hr/>.5" totals a few days ago. 00z now has some low prob for 36hr/>2" stuff showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 cool thanks. i think the gefs actually had like 60% probs for 24 hr/>.5" totals a few days ago. 00z now has some low prob for 36hr/>2" stuff showing up. They have a couple of periods where probs are 50-60% for >0.5" out in eastern NY/western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 is anyone else really sad thinking about all of this right now? it just hit me kind of hard that winter's basically over. Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 is anyone else really sad thinking about all of this right now? it just hit me kind of hard that winter's basically over. Yikes... big winter incoming. big big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 big winter incoming. big big winter. haha, well Pete still has a shot maybe. It's just sad when 90% of your friends are from skiing, and you won't be able to see them every weekend at the hill or learn new tricks with them and cheer and laugh and ahghhh. I'm getting depressed, just gotta make the most out of these next few weeks I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Lost 90% of the snowpack now, mostly piles, plows and shade, thats it, more warm weather and plenty of rain on the way later this week. Its a sad transition down here in the tropics but time waits for no weenie, looking forward to the first day of spring tomorrow, it is what it is!! Bring on bbq's and the beach! I agree...it's mostly over. Sure we could get a fluke storm, but we're toast for the most part since Feb sucked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 how are the ec ens pop. looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 is anyone else really sad thinking about all of this right now? it just hit me kind of hard that winter's basically over. Yikes... ??? Not quite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 This harkens back to last March, all I can say is man I hope not. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zp72f138.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 ??? Not quite... lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Epic nothing left in my yard now save for a couple mangled piles like a foot tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 bump! :flood: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 There is already a river or three cutting through the about 10" of snow left in my back yard. Cellar floor damp. This is going to be a long 36 hours or so. FML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Lots of flood reports in CT, minor over wash down the street, streams are over or at bankfull with snow OTG in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Rainfall Totals: 3.91" - Southwick 3.73" - Agawam 3.70" - Westfield 3.41" - Orange 3.36" - Westhampton 3.20" - Greenfield 3.14" - Chicopee 2.82" - Worthington 2.76" - Williamsburg 2.76" - Goshen 2.65" - Easthampton 2.59" - East Longmeadow 2.51" - Lenox 2.35" - Charlemont 1.99" - Clarksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What is sad is this post..and you giving in to the warm ideas..what a shame I think 10 days later youve given in now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I think 10 days later youve given in now too. I haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I haven't. A true diehard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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