Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 bump, hopefully this early spring (2-4 weeks) we can get record rain, esp the Berks and Monads. Last spring was largely an early summer, so let's hope for a redux - breakout in late April into 70s and climo-extreme heat/severe in May. Enjoy mud season it's the only mud you got, well that and black flies, heavy suckage spring incoming, heavy heavy suckage spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 box's take: 2) HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE COASTAL PLAIN: A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1.50 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALMOST SURELY RESULT IN A VERY MESSY FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WITH PLENTY OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW CLOGS STORM DRAINS. THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY BASED ON 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AND IT CAUSED A LOT OF RISES BUT NO RIVER FLOODING. THEREFORE...NO FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING AND THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR SHORT FUSED FLOOD ADVISORIES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. Yea this week, let's see what the vaunted RFC says about next, not my favorite Govt agency the RFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 bump, hopefully this early spring (2-4 weeks) we can get record rain, esp the Berks and Monads. Last spring was largely an early summer, so let's hope for a redux - breakout in late April into 70s and climo-extreme heat/severe in May. Why in Sam Hell would you want that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Why in Sam Hell would you want that? Troll as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Why in Sam Hell would you want that? We have not had epic flooding since 2005 if you recall. Also, when I said climo-extreme heat I just meant "hot for May" which is 80s or low 90s or around there. We need a couple good severe events this year, last solid year was 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We have not had epic flooding since 2005 if you recall. Also, when I said climo-extreme heat I just meant "hot for May" which is 80s or low 90s or around there. We need a couple good severe events this year, last good year was 2006. Again, why would you want flooding? Not good for anyone (maybe builders) Why would you want 80s and 90s? We have had 90s in April recently (2009) and May (2010?) Ugh! Bad enough in July. I guess from an anomolous met standpoint it is interesting. I would still rather have some snows in May, even if they melt the same day. Much more intersting to me. 70F one day, 30F and snow the next, then back to 70F is always interesting Agree with you on the severe... I think 2006 was when my computer was fried by a nearby strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 nam is advertising a ton of rain, this could get ugly for some homeowners and river flooding, lets hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 nam is advertising a ton of rain, this could get ugly for some homeowners and river flooding, lets hope not. Frozen ground, surface runoff, worse for rivers than homeowners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I would love to see the RFC hydro calcs, wonder if they use a frozen ground Coefficient, anyone guess I have a hydrology fetish?, my favorite under/ post grad courses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Frozen ground, surface runoff, worse for rivers than homeowners. Maybe so Ginx, but if your in a location myself, its time to make sure you have a plan, and try in any way to protect your property, last March we flooded badly, such is life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Maybe so Ginx, but if your in a location myself, its time to make sure you have a plan, and try in any way to protect your property, last March we flooded badly, such is life. Drainage ditches made every snowstorm are still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Frozen ground, surface runoff, worse for rivers than homeowners. Well, in our basement we can get some water esp when the ground is frozen and we get a heavy rain. I have moved some of the downspouts since this has happened last and so far so good. We get water at the base of our chimney and where the well lines come in, but nothing a shopvac can't handle At least I will be home for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Again, why would you want flooding? Not good for anyone (maybe builders) Why would you want 80s and 90s? We have had 90s in April recently (2009) and May (2010?) Ugh! Bad enough in July. I guess from an anomolous met standpoint it is interesting. I would still rather have some snows in May, even if they melt the same day. Much more intersting to me. 70F one day, 30F and snow the next, then back to 70F is always interesting Agree with you on the severe... I think 2006 was when my computer was fried by a nearby strike You guys cannot be cured...snow obsession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I would love to see the RFC hydro calcs, wonder if they use a frozen ground Coefficient, anyone guess I have a hydrology fetish?, my favorite under/ post grad courses. Although my prof was great, I was not into that class too much. I appreciate someone else liking it, though. Much more enjoyable than Optical Mineralogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Drainage ditches made every snowstorm are still in place. Im in a federally mandated flood zone, they say im 7 ft above sea level but im not its more like 3 or 4, with saltwater marsh about 200 yds behind my home. Army corp of engineers dredge the wetland creeks as best they can, but at high tide the water is only 3 ft from the top of the sewer drain, there is simply no place for the water to go since the table is so high, its our basements that flood. I just hope everyone escapes flooding Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You guys cannot be cured...snow obsession I do love snow but enjoy a good freak show as well. All kinds of displays of unusual weather are welcome in my book. Can't say there is anything good to say about a flood, though. And manky swamp azz high dewpoint warm crap makes me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 That rain may ripen the snowpack for floods early next week. I agree with Will in that most of the areas west of 495 and north of CT should be in the 30s. That snow will absorb a lot of the rain, but man that's going to be ripe for a big meltdown, possibly. yeah places are going to have a 1:1 depth to SWE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 flood watch just issued by okx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 flood watch just issued by okx Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I do love snow but enjoy a good freak show as well. All kinds of displays of unusual weather are welcome in my book. Can't say there is anything good to say about a flood, though. And manky swamp azz high dewpoint warm crap makes me cringe. Usually the high dews and heat bring a round of storms/svr....not always, but usually. I love the heat for that reason. Flooding (esp river/stream) is awesome and very raw, I'm not sure why more people do not enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 flood watch just issued by okx congrats bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Congrats You too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You too. Just a cold cold rain and some backend snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just a cold cold rain and some backend snow At least you are at the top of the mountain so the rain runs off into everyone else's basements. Hopefully March 4th-8th produces, as Messenger promised the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 flood watches up. steve's already been spotted on i-95S in RI...sandbags on each shoulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 flood watches up. steve's already been spotted on i-95S in RI...sandbags on each shoulder. Hopefully this one overperforms on qpf, or at least lines up with the more lively model qpf charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hopefully this one overperforms on qpf, or at least lines up with the more lively model qpf charts i think some spot >2" totals are reachable. pretty high pwat air running straight up into the area on a wicked jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 i think some spot >2" totals are reachable. pretty high pwat air running straight up into the area on a wicked jet. you and I also have the benefit of isolated/scattered convection causing locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 you and I also have the benefit of isolated/scattered convection causing locally higher amounts. hopefully there is some damaging wind too...that'd be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 you and I also have the benefit of isolated/scattered convection causing locally higher amounts. yeah i haven't looked up your way but i know that down this way TTs were pumping toward 50 and SIs were approaching 0. with that kind of jet, i certainly wouldn't be surprised if we get a t-storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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