Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 God's country and the ORH hills maybe, but you need more trending. I need snow because it's rain, otherwise......you also have to remember that good ice events are becoming harder to see as the sun angle rises. There's been some decent ice events in late Feb..but with no blocking it's not likely anyway. I'm just trying to salvage the snowpack. The euro coming that far SE is promising for a colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I do not think anybody's snow is vaporizing today, getting colder by the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's been some decent ice events in late Feb..but with no blocking it's not likely anyway. I'm just trying to salvage the snowpack. The euro coming that far SE is promising for a colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 What an awful EURO run.....even makes the March 1 event a rainer....ice in the N and W hills. yeah thats awful clear up through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yeah thats awful clear up through here This run is a real chair TIPper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I do not think anybody's snow is vaporizing today, getting colder by the hour. All my snow is just about already vaporized (all 1" of it) I'm thinking euro trends more toward the GFS in this one, both biases being exploited. GFS too progressive so it doesnt amp up the east coast heights and gives us all snow. Euro holds back and over-amps. Likely somewhere in between but I'd weight it more toward the GFS with the high nudging in to give us a change over from rain to snow. Lots of trending to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This run is a real chair TIPper. fortunately itll change in 12 hours, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 This run is a real chair TIPper. LOL, well hence my comment about limping into March. I'm not basing it on some op run, but the ensembles were a little concerning. Just remember, with the storm track close by, it won't take much to have more of a wintry scenario. Just don't lock it in right now. As far as Friday goes, yeah I think it could come east more, but for much of sne...I don't think it's enough to change the outcome. Euro wanted to develop a wave along the front so if you truly want to weenie out...you can hope for anafrontal snow..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL what a bomb at day 8 on the Euro. I think I see 90kt at 850mb over VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 All my snow is just about already vaporized (all 1" Sorry snow still on the trees here, roads melted but not on the pack, cold and wind is picking up. Euro flips every run days 7.+ , it's ENS have been consistent with a colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 fortunately itll change in 12 hours, Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL what a bomb at day 8 on the Euro. I think I see 90kt at 850mb over VA This would be cool actually, new moon tides too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LOL, well hence my comment about limping into March. I'm not basing it on some op run, but the ensembles were a little concerning. Just remember, with the storm track close by, it won't take much to have more of a wintry scenario. Just don't lock it in right now. As far as Friday goes, yeah I think it could come east more, but for much of sne...I don't think it's enough to change the outcome. Euro wanted to develop a wave along the front so if you truly want to weenie out...you can hope for anafrontal snow..lol. Steve will be the only one to care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No surprise - HPC favoring the Euro over GFS/Canadian: WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A CYCLONE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS... WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z UKMET/00-12Z ECMWF/GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE THE LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...OR ABOUT 275 NM FARTHER NORTH...A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR ONLY A DAY 4 PREDICTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Steve will be the only one to care I do not mind nickel and diming as I wait for the final push over 100 . Believe this though there are hundreds of us who relish every snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I do not mind nickel and diming as I wait for the final push over 100 . Believe this though there are hundreds of us who relish every snow event. Believe this though anafrontal snow happens 1\100 chances.....and of that 1\100 times, half of those are relegated to the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No surprise - HPC favoring the Euro over GFS/Canadian: WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A CYCLONE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS... WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z UKMET/00-12Z ECMWF/GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE THE LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...OR ABOUT 275 NM FARTHER NORTH...A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR ONLY A DAY 4 PREDICTION. 1) I don't want the GFS solution - I'm ready for warm weather and no more snow. 2) That said, they're full of schit - there is no feedback on this run, nor has there been across the last 6 cycles of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Time to start using the F word No, not that F word floodz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Time to start using the F word No, not that F word floodz Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No surprise - HPC favoring the Euro over GFS/Canadian: WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A CYCLONE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS... WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z UKMET/00-12Z ECMWF/GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE THE LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...OR ABOUT 275 NM FARTHER NORTH...A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR ONLY A DAY 4 PREDICTION. See this is key.....even if you hate the EURO, not sure how you can ignore the fact that the ens are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No surprise - HPC favoring the Euro over GFS/Canadian: WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A CYCLONE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS... WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z UKMET/00-12Z ECMWF/GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE THE LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...OR ABOUT 275 NM FARTHER NORTH...A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR ONLY A DAY 4 PREDICTION. I thought Jerry said the Ukie was south and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 1) I don't want the GFS solution - I'm ready for warm weather and no more snow. 2) That said, they're full of schit - there is no feedback on this run, nor has there been across the last 6 cycles of the GFS. Enjoy the wait, the thaw is over, even the cutters will freeze your ti ties* off. No frisbee throwing to Coeds soon. Your nightmare spring evolves, as unlike last winter, ECanada is loaded with snow, back door city. May I suggest a trip to Hawaii for the next three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Jerry was extrapolating off the 72 hour UKMET which comes out earlier than the rest of the run. The UKMET is a virtual copy of the Euro. I thought Jerry said the Ukie was south and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GEM and GFS are all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Jerry was extrapolating off the 72 hour UKMET which comes out earlier than the rest of the run. The UKMET is a virtual copy of the Euro. Yea it was ! It will be an interesting event, either way. But, the differences here do not have anything to do with convective gridscale feedback - the marker for that are not evident. Not sure where they came up with that. The differences are related to the handling of the N stream, exerting on the flow from the N and keeping the track suppressed in these colder solution. In any event, with a westerly track we could wind up with a severe weather outbreak here, squalline in nature - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GEM and GFS are all alone. GFS has been alone for days on this, Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS has been alone for days on this, Ray You don't have to tell me.....never thought snow on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yea it was ! It will be an interesting event, either way. But, the differences here do not have anything to do with convective gridscale feedback - the marker for that are not evident. Not sure where they came up with that. The differences are related to the handling of the N stream, exerting on the flow from the N and keeping the track suppressed in these colder solution. In any event, with a westerly track we could wind up with a severe weather outbreak here, squalline in nature - LOL..with a 42 degree stratiform rain? You promised us last week this would trend south and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You promised us last week this would trend south and colder God you sound like JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 God you sound like JI You've had a number of bad posts today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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