CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 and that's 00z ec vs 00z gfs. Yeah just a slight difference..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 and that's 00z ec vs 00z gfs. here's the 06z gfs. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The GGEM looks like a nice compromise to the cold GFS and scorching Euro...what do y'all think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah just a slight difference..lol. by no means am i disillusioned and thinking this doesn't want to cut west but at the same time i am interested to see how this plays out with respect to some known model biases and the recent pattern. overall long-wave set-up says wagons west and there's good support for that idea. what i'm curious about is the effect, if any, the northern stream energy ends up having. given the propensity this winter for that to win out or ended up stronger. i don't know that it will necessarily matter for SNE but might be important for folks in C/NNE. also could have an impact on holding in some ll cold over parts of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 by no means am i disillusioned and thinking this doesn't want to cut west but at the same time i am interested to see how this plays out with respect to some known model biases and the recent pattern. overall long-wave set-up says wagons west and there's good support for that idea. what i'm curious about is the effect, if any, the northern stream energy ends up having. given the propensity this winter for that to win out or ended up stronger. i don't know that it will necessarily matter for SNE but might be important for folks in C/NNE. also could have an impact on holding in some ll cold over parts of SNE? I could see it more interesting for CNE/NNE. I wouldn't be shocked if the euro trends less amped up with ridging in the east, but still mostly a liquid storm for sne. I'm just not buying the gfs op right now, but man I sure wish it would happen. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BOX keeping all options open for now. Let's hope the gfs stays coolish today and the euro comes in cooler. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCETHOUGH REGARDING THE TRACK SO OUR CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATIONTYPES/FORMS IS LOW. THIS OF COURSE CAN BE EXPECTED SINCE THE EVENTIS STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE SOUTHERNOUTLIER AND WOULD RESULT IN THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR SNOW/ICE ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET/ECMWF HAVE MORE OF ANORTHWEST TRACK AND WARMER SOLUTION/S. THIS WOULD RESULT INPOSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SNOW/ICE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE INTERIORWHICH WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN. THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OFTHE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL BLEND THE MODELS WITH THEUNCERTAINTY...BUT WITH NAO EXPECTED TO GO POSITIVE WILL GIVE ALITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE WARMER ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION/S...BUT THISIS CERTAINLY NOT SET IN STONE. EVEN IF THE WARMER SOLUTIONS VERIFYTHERE STILL COULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ATTHE ONSET...SO THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The one thing we have to watch, is the bias for models to retrograde the Gulf ridge into the sw US. I noticed back on Friday, the euro ensembles had a pretty good trough over the northeast on March 1st with a weak se ridge. Now, the euro ensembles still have it colder, but the se ridge is back. GFS did this too. Doesn't mean it will happen, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We just need to somehow avoid a true torch cutter. Tip promised us 3 snow events and promised the end of the week event would turn colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The pattern going into March still looks ok. It reminds me of this composite. This is the positive phase of the WPO. Basically put oranges where we have blues in that map...and blues where we have oranges in that map and you have the negative phase of the WPO. That seems to be in the cards. Ensembles such as the GFS and Euro also have a ridge pushing into the North Pole from AK and try to turn the PNA +. All those are good for sne. The WPO and EPO have a time-lag positive correlation coefficience...which is fancy speak for 'they tend to move together circa two days apart' - not withstanding their respective magnitudes at any given time. More fancy speak for their probably being some dependency as to the strength of each index measurement. Excluding that for a moment ... currently both are negative, and they should be given said correlation. Both of those are cold signal deliveries into the 40N parallel across the Pacific Basin, into the western/central Canadian shield, as well. The PNA, however, is opposing these with a robust negative, one that is only progged to alleviated slowly over the next 2 weeks. This is a warm delivery to 40N parallel. This is also interesting, because the EPO, which is basically the northern 1/3 of the PNA's total domain, also has a strong positive correlation with the PNA - which makes sense because they share domain space... What that means to the Meteorologists is that there is something inherently unstable about governing circulation pattern at this time, and going forward... as we now enter the 3rd week and chapter of: "Schit Pattern 2011; how a season failed" The fact that the -PNA persists with a whopper -EPO ridge (such as that fantastic looking 12z NAM's depiction), is the main protagonism in that story, and it will be equally fascinating how that story resolves here over the next 10 days. One such sub-resolution will be whatever happens with this next system on Friday. It is amazing that just 4.5 days away, the Euro and the GFS are in an epic boxing match over that. The GFS threads needle and slices the wave under LI to give a moderate, low end warning spring like snow event, while the Euro warm sectors and brings (probably) a similar thunderstorm scenario as the other night (not a mid level analog in saying so). Which will succeed? Almost an impossible deterministic call at this time. The NAO is transiently negative at this time, but is rising sharply during this week in every member. This is true at all three, the CPC, the CDC, the John's eye-balling synoptic overview, indices. That argues for lifting the storm track up the East Coast, effectively laying the tracks for the ECM's incising into Kevin's winter-soul. However, not to be out done ... the whopper -EPO ridge is causing a split PNAP pattern, with the latitudes above 40N looking rather +PNAish, and -PNA beneath. That conflict of streams/orientation therein is the heart of the problem here. If the EPO dominates, the northern stream creates a wall across southern/SE Canada that will prevent anything from going west of NJ. If the PNA and NAO face-smack abandonment overwhelms the flow, such as the deterministic Euro, the storm goes west with ease. Either way, there is a narrow window where the EPO fails to load +PP into Ontario, and lacking lower level blocking by polar high in that window, offers limited resistence to scouring out cold and ruining the entrance into March. That would mean, either the GFS solution or no snow - because without sufficient llv cold air, limited chance for one of your so-called swfe's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We just need to somehow avoid a true torch cutter. Tip promised us 3 snow events and promised the end of the week event would turn colder Kev... you'll like the 12z GFS - heavy heavy snow. Though it did jump north a bit from 6z, and it's a ton different from the 12z NAM which looks to extrapolate into a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Kev... you'll like the 12z GFS - heavy heavy snow. Though it did jump north a bit from 6z, and it's a ton different from the 12z NAM which looks to extrapolate into a cutter. I think the GFS is dead wrong with a colder solution. Hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE PRECISE TRAJECTORY OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS CANADA FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS. THUS...TAKEN AS A WHOLE CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ENTERING DAY 3...WITH NEARLY ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONSIDERED EQUALLY GOOD...BEFORE FALLING DRAMATICALLY DAYS 4-7 AS THE VARIABLES BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AND SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES WITH A STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THE EITHER THE 00Z GEFS MEAN OR 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. Exactly ..!! This also echoes my sentiments from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Canadian goes way colder for late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The WPO and EPO have a time-lag positive correlation coefficience...which is fancy speak for 'they tend to move together circa two days apart' - not withstanding their respective magnitudes at any given time. More fancy speak for their probably being some dependency as to the strength of each index measurement. Excluding that for a moment ... currently both are negative, and they should be given said correlation. Both of those are cold signal deliveries into the 40N parallel across the Pacific Basin, into the western/central Canadian shield, as well. The PNA, however, is opposing these with a robust negative, one that is only progged to alleviated slowly over the next 2 weeks. This is a warm delivery to 40N parallel. This is also interesting, because the EPO, which is basically the northern 1/3 of the PNA's total domain, also has a strong positive correlation with the PNA - which makes sense because they share domain space... What that means to the Meteorologists is that there is something inherently unstable about governing circulation pattern at this time, and going forward... as we now enter the 3rd week and chapter of: "Schit Pattern 2011; how a season failed" The fact that the -PNA persists with a whopper -EPO ridge (such as that fantastic looking 12z NAM's depiction), is the main protagonism in that story, and it will be equally fascinating how that story resolves here over the next 10 days. One such sub-resolution will be whatever happens with this next system on Friday. It is amazing that just 4.5 days away, the Euro and the GFS are in an epic boxing match over that. The GFS threads needle and slices the wave under LI to give a moderate, low end warning spring like snow event, while the Euro warm sectors and brings (probably) a similar thunderstorm scenario as the other night (not a mid level analog in saying so). Which will succeed? Almost an impossible deterministic call at this time. The NAO is transiently negative at this time, but is rising sharply during this week in every member. This is true at all three, the CPC, the CDC, the John's eye-balling synoptic overview, indices. That argues for lifting the storm track up the East Coast, effectively laying the tracks for the ECM's incising into Kevin's winter-soul. However, not to be out done ... the whopper -EPO ridge is causing a split PNAP pattern, with the latitudes above 40N looking rather +PNAish, and -PNA beneath. That conflict of streams/orientation therein is the heart of the problem here. If the EPO dominates, the northern stream creates a wall across southern/SE Canada that will prevent anything from going west of NJ. If the PNA and NAO face-smack abandonment overwhelms the flow, such as the deterministic Euro, the storm goes west with ease. Either way, there is a narrow window where the EPO fails to load +PP into Ontario, and lacking lower level blocking by polar high in that window, offers limited resistence to scouring out cold and ruining the entrance into March. That would mean, either the GFS solution or no snow - because without sufficient llv cold air, limited chance for one of your so-called swfe's. Dude, on the money. I posted about how I was a little concerned about the models retrograding the ridge from the Gulf into the sw US a little too fast perhaps..or maybe too aggressively. One of the guys here mentioned that. Every model is bringing the ridge into the sw US, but it's a pretty classic Nina pattern right now, and I think the -PNA is still trying to hold strong. That ties into your discussion. That said, it does seem that we'll eventually see the -PNA simmer down a bit so that's good. Also, weak ridging north of AK is usually a huge help to facilitate cold into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think the GFS is dead wrong with a colder solution. Hope I'm wrong I agree.....now where is Messenger to mock us with the "hug the snowiest model" crap.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I agree.....now where is Messenger to mock us with the "hug the snowiest model" crap.... UKMET/CMC/GFS are together now on this. May all be wrong but consensus is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ORH by the end of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 UKMET/CMC/GFS are together now on this. May all be wrong but consensus is increasing. Yeah, certainly interesting to see the Canadian jump, but the GFS ensembles are right over sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Isnt the GGEM usually a warm solution? I might be wrong on this but if so its not bad having it as the compromise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 UKMET/CMC/GFS are together now on this. May all be wrong but consensus is increasing. When you have a solid met premise, you should not allow guidance to lead you astray from it.....develop your own thoughts and look for guidance to corroborate. If you have a clue, more often than not it ultimately will by the time the dust settles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 When you have a solid met premise, you should not allow guidance to have you stray from it.....develop your own thoughts and look for guidance to corroborate. If you have a clue, more often than not it ultimately will by the time the dust settles. I have had the premise that this is a snowier solution from 10 days ago. SWFE with strong cold in Canada but unfavorable PNA is a race. This year I suspect that race is won by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I have had the premise that this is a snowier solution from 10 days ago. SWFE with strong cold in Canada but unfavorable PNA is a race. This year I suspect that race is won by us. I could see a few inches of snow, but this system will be remembered for it's p type issues, imo....at least down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, certainly interesting to see the Canadian jump, but the GFS ensembles are right over sne. You wonder if half the members are extreme cutters and the other half are well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I agree.....now where is Messenger to mock us with the "hug the snowiest model" crap.... Oh, the kid's alright though. I like to pull his switches by nipping at his opposing sort of bias - but you know, you need those types to keep things honest. I try to be objective at all times, but hey, lord knows I'm only human in that regard... Anyway, – been meaning to mention about the season to date: So, colder than normal with above normal winter, 2010-2011. And I don't see the last week here of February recovering temperatures (hint as to the week ender event). Who would have thunk with a strengthening La Nina leading. Sure goes to show my argument about these NCEP clowns putting too much stock in the ENSO states… Clearly, such a statistical anomalous result – and I feel not random do to the persistency of it – in the very least suggests there are just as many controlling factors. Namely, the arctic gets a say… Duh. But, I think it is because they don’t feel there is any reliable means to predict the AO, certainly not the NAO with it’s often intra-weekly time-scale variability. Still, to NOT include that as at least a bi-line statement is stupid for even a governmental operation. They really need to take their heads out of their collective arses on this. Scott - no doubt! And, just look at the 12z GGEM now caving into the notion that the northern stream is too strong to allow that Friday job to go west of us. Classic teleconnector fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I could see a few inches of snow, but this system will be remembered for it's p type issues, imo....at least down here. A few inches may be all I need in your by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GEFS tracking this right over us should make the cold camp cringe and shrivel weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My typical plans for March -- Expect nothing. If you get anything, consider it a bonus. The later we get into March, the sooner I want the 90's to get here. Last year was pretty ideal regarding heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A few inches may be all I need in your by... You need more than 3.5", here within the next week.....tic....toc.... Remember, I expected this last event to snow.......it actually snowed a bit less than I had expected. I busted.....2.5" is not 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Where are you getting the complete UKMET run this early? Or are you just extrapolating from 72 hours? UKMET/CMC/GFS are together now on this. May all be wrong but consensus is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone in the Met community look at the actual Nina state today? Keep seeing words about Nina typical etc, hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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