bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Interesting to point out that SPC is now progging our Low out in TX at 1000mb. Thanks to trency911 for the heads up. Don't remember ever seeing it that strong on any of the models at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Every run seems to keep the s/w just a tad stronger and the energy in the lakes a tad weaker. Yea first of all... the 18z nam poorly initialized... since the 18z RUC initialization was much further south with the 5460m height at 500mb and matched up better with what the 12z Nam was depicting... The interesting takeaway message I took was that despite the NAM being much less amplified than even the 12z run the first 6-12 hours, it managed to still amplify more than the 12z run by a significant amount. The only reason why the precipitation was weaker is because the s/w was a bit broader. I imagine if the 18z Nam had a similar initialization to the 18z RUC, we would have seen a far more amplified solution. Also take note that the 15z SREF guidence as a whole was much wetter across the southeast... with the majority of members printing out a quarter inch QPF or higher across North Central Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks to everyone for the updates today! I have a question. Does anyone remember the Jan 1988 storm? If I am not mistaken, the Jan 1988 (or 1987?) system was progged to drop 1-2" of snow in Charlotte area, all the way up to start time of the event and then we ended up with 12". I AM NOT SAYING that this exttreme would happen by no stretch, but I wonder if that system had the same look as this one? I think Foothills or someone (cannot remember) did a case study on this storm. TIA for any input! Jan '88 was well forecasted with high totals predicted. Jan 22, 1987 is probably the one you are talking about. Predicted to be rain, with a slight chance of sleet and we wake up to 9 inches on the ground. We don't have the potential for this storm to 'explode' with high totals this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NC TRIAD. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRIAD. PERSONS IN THE TRIAD CAN GO TO THE ROOFTOPS OF THEIR TALLEST BUILDINGS, LOOK DIRECTLY EAST AND WATCH A WINTER STORM. THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 2 WEEKS AGO WHEN THEY HAD TO LOOK SOUTH TO WATCH A STORM, AND A MONTH AGO WHEN THEY HAD TO LOOK NORTH. Isn't that the truth? Every storm this winter is a repeat. The only variable is the direction relative to us where the big accumulations will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Every run seems to keep the s/w just a tad stronger and the energy in the lakes a tad weaker. Well we certainly have seen how S/W's have defied model expectations this winter already. It is something to watch. As of now though I will expect a token dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong, but using the 18Z GFS as an example, the current radar does not match up. Thoughts? http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Looks like the precip is moving faster and that something is already trying to get going off the lower atlantic coast... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_006l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Sitting tight in Memphis... Hoping we catch the northern part of the heavy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yea first of all... the 18z nam poorly initialized... since the 18z RUC initialization was much further south with the 5460m height at 500mb and matched up better with what the 12z Nam was depicting... The interesting takeaway message I took was that despite the NAM being much less amplified than even the 12z run the first 6-12 hours, it managed to still amplify more than the 12z run by a significant amount. The only reason why the precipitation was weaker is because the s/w was a bit broader. I imagine if the 18z Nam had a similar initialization to the 18z RUC, we would have seen a far more amplified solution. Also take note that the 15z SREF guidence as a whole was much wetter across the southeast... with the majority of members printing out a quarter inch QPF or higher across North Central Georgia. So basically we just focus mainly on the RUC as Robert said....this is gonna be a nail bitter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming in wetter so far at hr 36: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming in wetter so far at hr 36: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_036l.gif Great...it's gone from stunk to stink. I can now expect a flurry instead of just cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 seen this plenty of times once gsp called for 2-3 and we had 6-8 another time called for 1-2 and we had like 4 inches, so this does happen and I wouldn't be surprised on this storm i mean it looks so huge the precipitation shield coming east, it just looks stronger to me and it could be this will be a now cast and someone ends up with 4 or 5 inches, i know the weather is hard to predict and the models aren't always right as we stated. last year the one storm GSP said no way the snow gets up into NC that it would be a upstate snowstorm only and that morning I looked at the radar and the moisture was moving northeast not due east like they thought well even the northern mts. of nc were shoveling snow off the sidewalk. wnc as a whole had like 4-6 inches that afternoon/ evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Get ready for STORM MODE after tonight's Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Great...it's gone from stunk to stink. I can now expect a flurry instead of just cloudy skies. Trends...trends and trends my bouncy blue baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yea first of all... the 18z nam poorly initialized... since the 18z RUC initialization was much further south with the 5460m height at 500mb and matched up better with what the 12z Nam was depicting... The interesting takeaway message I took was that despite the NAM being much less amplified than even the 12z run the first 6-12 hours, it managed to still amplify more than the 12z run by a significant amount. The only reason why the precipitation was weaker is because the s/w was a bit broader. I imagine if the 18z Nam had a similar initialization to the 18z RUC, we would have seen a far more amplified solution. Also take note that the 15z SREF guidence as a whole was much wetter across the southeast... with the majority of members printing out a quarter inch QPF or higher across North Central Georgia. Where is the 100:1 ratio snow accumulations you were talking about at lunch, going to play into this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming in wetter so far at hr 36: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_036l.gif It's a tad wetter for SE GA and E NC but other then that it's pretty much the same as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah with modeling the way it is now surprises like that are gonna be harder to come by. Dec 1989 was like that here called for a chance of flurries and got a blizzard instead lol. Feel pretty good that I am gonna see snow, MHX seems bullish but the QPF average for around here on most models is .30-.50" and if that is right then 2-4" seems a good bet. Just got off the phone with the Chief about an hour ago, kind of shocked like me that MHX hoisted a watch. Told me he has not been on the NWS chat yet, but he thinks it may have been one of the younger leads who he thinks is working today, and known to be a little bullish. Looking at 15z SREF probs, greater than 50% chance we verify at warning criteria so in that sense it is not in left field, although I would have preferred a WWA and upgrade later if needed, in classic MHX style. Well Ron, looks like it is going to SN again, likely the last one for at-least another 9 months as after the first week of March, chances crash for accum powder. Still a fair amount of discrepancies in output, although the trend in all the 12z guidance was wetter. Euro increased QPF from 0.05" - 0.29" at PGV from the 0-12z runs. GFS ens mean supports widespread over 0.5" amounts with some of the members looking RGEM'ish with a 0.75" bullet from near Kinston to Washington. Current thinking is the NAM is too far south with the heavier amounts in SE NC, and that will trend a little north as the event gets closer, as most times it does. SREF ARW members, GFS ens, EC, and the RGEM to a certain extent are painting the most accurate picture imo of where the heaviest axis should set up, but not willing to bite on higher amounts yet. General 0.25-0.5" of QPF along a Lumberton - Kinston - Washington - Kill Devil Hills line, towards the higher end of that the further NE you go, say around the central inner banks. PGV should be just north of where it sets up, but any shift to the north in that could put it almost overhead. Ratios based on Bufkit output should avg around 15:1, and it may start out as -RN, especially south of that line I mentioned. North of there is should be all SN, and this may be another example where we struggle to drop the surface to below freezing, even here. Possibly another 32 and SN isothermal deal, similar to last March. Saving grace though is ratios as the thickness aloft is much lower compared to that event, so while that was good sn-ball SN, this will be more of a powder type initially. Any area that can stay all SN and realize close to 0.5" of liquid equiv, has a shot at something memorable, and typically once in 10 year 6" event. Most of us in the east are in game at this point to pick up our seasonal avg in the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Interesting to point out that SPC is now progging our Low out in TX at 1000mb. Thanks to trency911 for the heads up. Don't remember ever seeing it that strong on any of the models at any point. It's already 1000mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming in wetter so far at hr 36: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_036l.gif Meh...looks about the same to me, little more off the coast. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Jan '88 was well forecasted with high totals predicted. Jan 22, 1987 is probably the one you are talking about. Predicted to be rain, with a slight chance of sleet and we wake up to 9 inches on the ground. We don't have the potential for this storm to 'explode' with high totals this time around. Umm the Jan 1988 storm was the worst forecasted snowstorm in history for the upstate of SC!! Remember it well, very well. NWS and channel 4 said a dusting to 2" 12hrs from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It's already 1000mb Latest RUC keeps the s/w pretty much intact as it moves from west to east throughout its run. It's looks stronger than it ever was on the Euro/Canadian/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Get ready for STORM MODE after tonight's Euro! Lol. No dice this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Where is the 100:1 ratio snow accumulations you were talking about at lunch, going to play into this system? Just a wee bit of a joke The 18z GFS looks slightly more moist, with lower heights int he s/w.... good trends, although its not significantly more moist QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So basically we just focus mainly on the RUC as Robert said....this is gonna be a nail bitter for sure. Exactly, the RUC,radar and SREF would be the best bet at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Great post WeatherNC! Just got off the phone with the Chief about an hour ago, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Umm the Jan 1988 storm was the worst forecasted snowstorm in history for the upstate of SC!! Remember it well, very well. NWS and channel 4 said a dusting to 2" 12hrs from the event. 4-8 / 6-10 was predicted here - TV/NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM at 36 Gotta love those gaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 4-8 / 6-10 was predicted here - TV/NWS They did good for that area then, sucked monkey balls down here! We went over 16" The latest RUC out to 17hrs...Parts of Ar-Kansas will be buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So basically we just focus mainly on the RUC as Robert said....this is gonna be a nail bitter for sure. Well the 18z GFS actually did decent with initialization compared to the 18z RUC. Latest RUC keeps the s/w pretty much intact as it moves from west to east throughout its run. It's looks stronger than it ever was on the Euro/Canadian/NAM Yea... but its been consistently too strong out to 18 hours... the key thing to watch is if the initializations are getting stronger, or if we see the 5400m heights at 500mb start appearing on the initlizations... this will tell us if we have a significantly stronger system than modeled since none of the global models have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just a wee bit of a joke The 18z GFS looks slightly more moist, with lower heights int he s/w.... good trends, although its not significantly more moist QPF wise. Yea, guess i'm too "pessimistic" to notice. Anyways, here is the latest bufkit data for Asheville, NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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