Jebman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Storms continue to form - and are training over me. Near an inch of rain so far. Moderate to heavy rain. Raucous claps of thunder - BRILLIANT lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Heavy rain with lightning/thunder.......small ponds of water forming in my backyard. This has been one of the wettest Aprils in a few years. Neighbors have been scrambling to mow their lawns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 I think any Wed/Thur threat may end up being significantly squelched by the timing. Although, we've had some good storm events already at unfavorable times of the day...we will see. I would feel much more comfortable if the whole thing slowed down by like 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdevil02 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 First rain drops today just started. Looks like it will last 5 mins. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Timing on 00z GFS sucks. Pretty much comes overnight Wednesday-Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 GFS timing still sucks. Maybe we can speed it up so much that it becomes a Wednesday threat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 GFS timing still sucks. Maybe we can speed it up so much that it becomes a Wednesday threat lol. Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Better? *images clipped* That NAM panel looks really nice...the GFS one though I'm not sold on - precip last 6 hours (12z to 18z). Looks like an improvement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Spc meso out for nw portions of lwx area... watch will be out by 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Spc meso out for nw portions of lwx area... watch will be out by 19z We'll see how much of the LWX area is covered. Looks like just the mountains and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 SPC just updated day 2 outlook - HUGE moderate risk and when I say huge I mean it's gigantic. Probably not a bad sign for Thursday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Any chance of those northward-moving storms over Eastern NC making their way up to DC/MD? Some of them look warned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Whenever our next threat is - it's going to be mighty tough to beat almost 24 hours of straight tornado watches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Whenever our next threat is - it's going to be mighty tough to beat almost 24 hours of straight tornado watches lol. Anyone know what the longest tornado watch for our area is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Anyone know what the longest tornado watch for our area is? longest duration is probably this last set of watches. as noted in the other thread there were two watches for ivan that covered ~12 hours. im not sure when spc started issuing watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Whenever our next threat is - it's going to be mighty tough to beat almost 24 hours of straight tornado watches lol. And I may have gotten .25" out of the whole thing. Weird, that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 With Ian and Ellinwood (our two big severe posters here in the Mid Atl forum) out of the area - I guess I'll kick things off here - Slight risk tomorrow (15%). Seems a bit more like the slight risks we are used to - maybe a line or cluster of storms moving through with some gusty winds and isolated hail. Nothing too impressive. Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 With Ian and Ellinwood (our two big severe posters here in the Mid Atl forum) out of the area - I guess I'll kick things off here - Slight risk tomorrow (15%). Seems a bit more like the slight risks we are used to - maybe a line or cluster of storms moving through with some gusty winds and isolated hail. Nothing too impressive. Yoda? I'll admit tomorrow is a high end meh Anywho.. I am trying to make a map of the eleven (and counting?) tornadoes in the LWX area this past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I'll admit tomorrow is a high end meh Anywho.. I am trying to make a map of the eleven (and counting?) tornadoes in the LWX area this past week If you need any help.. by all means, let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 meh Only because you're not here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 If you need any help.. by all means, let me know. I think I have the same major as you lol, but of course I don't even have the skills like you do The updated day 2 piqued my interest a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I see talk of lcl's and curved hodographs in the LWX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 I see talk of lcl's and curved hodographs in the LWX AFD About to read - gosh I love having a 4G Rover Puck at work - un-monitored internet FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 I see talk of lcl's and curved hodographs in the LWX AFD Didn't see anything specifically about LCL's but they did mention the potential for some low level circulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Didn't see anything specifically about LCL's but they did mention the potential for some low level circulations. Got it mixed up with low level shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 That Low over South Dakota on the GFS 162 will likely be over Northest Colorado. They have about the same H% heights as central South Dakota and a much higher 850mb temp. SLP has to be lower. Dammit the weather sucks again and I'm back to over analyzing nothing :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 This upcoming event is probably underrated but it really hasn't produced anything of value yet. The timing is exceptional though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Interesting though 5% tor contour. And the 0600 spc day 1 otlk seems to suggest that the best tornado threat is around us HWO and AFD from LWX mention isolated tornado threat late this afternoon into evening as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Interesting though 5% tor contour. And the 0600 spc day 1 otlk seems to suggest that the best tornado threat is around us HWO and AFD from LWX mention isolated tornado threat late this afternoon into evening as well I'm remaining vigilant! The 1300z update expanded the contour to the SE a bit it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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