Potential 3-5 day thaw coming

[CoastalWx]

No doubt, but today is a prime example of what happens when you don't have arctic air around. Usually when we have a system blow through it gets cold on the back side. Not with this one. 850's are running at -3F and we are in the upper 40's. Looks like the NAM and GFS are busting about 10F too cold right now with 2m temps.

Yeah I knew that would happen. They always do this, in situations like this where 850 temps are mild. I figured low 40's would be possible around here.

[Organizing Low]

well its 34 here

not a torch but above normal, yes, and yeah it feels balmy and just washed off the car and interior salt and garage....

once the cold air come in a couple days, sun will be relegated.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

No doubt, but today is a prime example of what happens when you don't have arctic air around. Usually when we have a system blow through it gets cold on the back side. Not with this one. 850's are running at -3F and we are in the upper 40's. Looks like the NAM and GFS are busting about 10F too cold right now with 2m temps.

we will melt again Monday, 3 calendar day torch for me and you. Not one station in the sne roundup on the ktan site under 40 in ct at 2.

Wear sunscreen, with these sun angles the fair skinned vampire types can burn quickly.

[Baroclinic Zone]

we will melt again Monday, 3 calendar day torch for me and you. Not one station in the sne roundup on the ktan site under 40 in ct at 2.

Wear sunscreen, with these sun angles the fair skinned vampire types can burn quickly.

no doubt we hit low 40's tomorrow.

[chim chiminey]

the door to my black car is too hot to touch with this sun angle

[Damage In Tolland]

Many mid-upper 30's in Northern CT..mild..but certainly no torch..and little if any melting excpet on pavement

[weatherMA]

Many mid-upper 30's in Northern CT..mild..but certainly no torch..and little if any melting excpet on pavement

Yeah 41F for a high and cloudy most of the day. Melting, but not much. Next week, however, will suck.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah 41F for a high and cloudy most of the day. Melting, but not much. Next week, however, will suck.

Well that remains to be seen. Highly doubtful the Euro is correct in that warmup to that magnitude. Lots of sneaky cold in Canada

[weatherMA]

Well that remains to be seen. Highly doubtful the Euro is correct in that warmup to that magnitude. Lots of sneaky cold in Canada

I hope you're right. 2-3 days in the 40s with low dews would be fine.

60F however would not be.

[ma blizzard]

Yeah 41F for a high and cloudy most of the day. Melting, but not much. Next week, however, will suck.

mby always torches in these situations .. got up to 44.2

[ORH_wxman]

I think ORH average for this time of year is around 32F so to be 9F over would be pretty substantial.

Yeah but ORH hit 37F....his BY hit 41F.

[weatherMA]

Yeah but ORH hit 37F....his BY hit 41F.

AWT 5-6 above normal. 35-36 is probably the average for my area in a lower elevation.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

no doubt we hit low 40's tomorrow.

Yeah

[subdude]

Excellent read Will.

it's inevitable that our heat bearing overlords are going to invade New England sooner or later. Let's hope it's short lived so we can continue on to Rd 2 of this phenomenal Winter.

[free_man]

Excellent read Will.

it's inevitable that our heat bearing overlords are going to invade New England sooner or later. Let's hope it's short lived so we can continue on to Rd 2 of this phenomenal Winter.

You've had a phenomenal winter? Seriously? it's been very good here but nothing unprecedented. Other areas obviously have been record breaking, but most of the interior #s I have seen haven't been that amazing. I noticed Hubbdave who's not too far from you has only had around 60", which I'm guessing is under his seasonal average.

Overall, today looks like a beautiful day. Noticed areas near I93/ rt 3/128 already nearing 40, hopefully putting a significant dent in the snowpack.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like winter is trying to die a slow death now… gee wiz. All that fun entertaining hysteria of last week has been utterly destroyed over the weekend.

Tuesday event looks to whiff barring some oddly unseen circumstances. Friday’s former big deal is a no deal now - as in, doesn't seem to even exist interestingly enough. Wonder if that's wrong.

The pattern really is breaking at long last, so much so that an early mud season sets in if you believe the ECM/GGEM/NOGAPS…. The problem here is that it is late in the year to withstand a "thaw" - once you get into the middle of February, if the pattern once to thaw it will over-produce because the sun WILL overcompensate and push the temperature higher than guidance every time. Not open to debate. I won a couple of semesters forecasting in college because of one simple precept that almost never failed: If a warming trend is forecast in spring, go above guidance by 3-5F regardless of machine or man. This is because sun is unanimously under-handled post roughly the 10th of February any given year. This is true right through June, btw... Remember last year on May 25th, when the high was 96-99F at just about every climate site lower than 1000' elevation, but the forecast was 92F? It's just the way goes... if it looks 40ish out there with burgeoning SE US heights and a west deep layer flow, you'd better hit 50 pretty hard because it'll make it.

GFS has other ideas, but frankly, the –PNA and a dicey at best –NAO as the sun climbs in February isn’t throwing many stormy cold signals, therefore.

Either way, it seems futility snow season has begun. Yesterday’s 41F sunny snow eater ruined the “epic” nature of my snow pack in Ayer - I am sure this is true for most honest posters. It was melted all the way down to 24”. It was 35” at the end of the last snow. But now at 24, impressive but really okay for New England country-side. The snow banks will be a little resilient away from the sun as they are by nature denser, which sucks actually for me, because the rotary traffic is a nightmare because people can't see around the snow banks in order to enter the rotaries in a timely fashion. So the thing loses its appeal and just becomes a pain in arse. Granted, odd anomalies have happened in history; 1717 great snow took place from February into March, I believe. Barring something extraordinary, which by nature is exceptionally rare, we lose more than we get seasonally driven, going forward. Meteorolgoical spring begins on March 1.

That said, I usually am okay with this until the ides of March. After that, I pretty much consign March 15 to May 1 as hell on Earth. Last year was, ironically, exceptional in that there was not one cut-off low after the floods of early March, and frankly I don't recall a single backdoor from from March 15 through August for that matter. Bizarre. Unfortunately, climatology forces our hand and we cannot count on that. I fully expect to be in visceral hatrid in about 20 days - so whatever we get, let's make it good, and hope these warm signals are overrout.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looks like winter is trying to die a slow death now… gee wiz. All that fun entertaining hysteria of last week has been utterly destroyed over the weekend.

Tuesday event looks to whiff barring some oddly unseen circumstances. Friday’s former big deal is a no deal now - as in, doesn't seem to even exist interestingly enough. Wonder if that's wrong.

The pattern really is breaking at long last, so much so that an early mud season sets in if you believe the ECM/GGEM/NOGAPS…. The problem here is that it is late in the year to withstand a "thaw" - once you get into the middle of February, if the pattern once to thaw it will over-produce because the sun WILL overcompensate and push the temperature higher than guidance every time. Not open to debate. I won a couple of semesters forecasting in college because of one simple precept that almost never failed: If a warming trend is forecast in spring, go above guidance by 3-5F regardless of machine or man. This is because sun is unanimously under-handled post roughly the 10th of February any given year. This is true right through June, btw... Remember last year on May 25th, when the high was 96-99F at just about every climate site lower than 1000' elevation, but the forecast was 92F? It's just the way goes... if it looks 40ish out there with burgeoning SE US heights and a west deep layer flow, you'd better hit 50 pretty hard because it'll make it.

GFS has other ideas, but frankly, the –PNA and a dicey at best –NAO as the sun climbs in February isn’t throwing many stormy cold signals, therefore.

Either way, it seems futility snow season has begun. Yesterday’s 41F sunny snow eater ruined the “epic” nature of my snow pack in Ayer - I am sure this is true for most honest posters. It was melted all the way down to 24”. It was 35” at the end of the last snow. But now at 24, impressive but really okay for New England country-side. The snow banks will be a little resilient away from the sun as they are by nature denser, which sucks actually for me, because the rotary traffic is a nightmare because people can't see around the snow banks in order to enter the rotaries in a timely fashion. So the thing loses its appeal and just becomes a pain in arse. Granted, odd anomalies have happened in history; 1717 great snow took place from February into March, I believe. Barring something extraordinary, which by nature is exceptionally rare, we lose more than we get seasonally driven.

That said, I usually am okay with this until the ides of March. After that, I pretty much consign March 15 to May 1 as hell on Earth. Last year was, ironically, exceptional in that there was not one cut-off low, and frankly I don't recall a single backdoor from from March 15 through August for that matter. Bizarre. Unfortunately, climatology forces our hand and we cannot count on that. I fully expect to be in visceral hatrid in about 20 days - so whatever we get, let's make it good, and hope these warm signals are overrout.

Ray just dove into the Merrimack with cinder blocks strapped to both feet.

[CoastalWx]

Ray just dove into the Merrimack with cinder blocks strapped to both feet.

Listening to Sarah McLachlan

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like winter is trying to die a slow death now… gee wiz. All that fun entertaining hysteria of last week has been utterly destroyed over the weekend.

Tuesday event looks to whiff barring some oddly unseen circumstances. Friday’s former big deal is a no deal now - as in, doesn't seem to even exist interestingly enough. Wonder if that's wrong.

The pattern really is breaking at long last, so much so that an early mud season sets in if you believe the ECM/GGEM/NOGAPS…. The problem here is that it is late in the year to withstand a "thaw" - once you get into the middle of February, if the pattern once to thaw it will over-produce because the sun WILL overcompensate and push the temperature higher than guidance every time. Not open to debate. I won a couple of semesters forecasting in college because of one simple precept that almost never failed: If a warming trend is forecast in spring, go above guidance by 3-5F regardless of machine or man. This is because sun is unanimously under-handled post roughly the 10th of February any given year. This is true right through June, btw... Remember last year on May 25th, when the high was 96-99F at just about every climate site lower than 1000' elevation, but the forecast was 92F? It's just the way goes... if it looks 40ish out there with burgeoning SE US heights and a west deep layer flow, you'd better hit 50 pretty hard because it'll make it.

GFS has other ideas, but frankly, the –PNA and a dicey at best –NAO as the sun climbs in February isn’t throwing many stormy cold signals, therefore.

Either way, it seems futility snow season has begun. Yesterday’s 41F sunny snow eater ruined the “epic” nature of my snow pack in Ayer - I am sure this is true for most honest posters. It was melted all the way down to 24”. It was 35” at the end of the last snow. But now at 24, impressive but really okay for New England country-side. The snow banks will be a little resilient away from the sun as they are by nature denser, which sucks actually for me, because the rotary traffic is a nightmare because people can't see around the snow banks in order to enter the rotaries in a timely fashion. So the thing loses its appeal and just becomes a pain in arse. Granted, odd anomalies have happened in history; 1717 great snow took place from February into March, I believe. Barring something extraordinary, which by nature is exceptionally rare, we lose more than we get seasonally driven, going forward. Meteorolgoical spring begins on March 1.

That said, I usually am okay with this until the ides of March. After that, I pretty much consign March 15 to May 1 as hell on Earth. Last year was, ironically, exceptional in that there was not one cut-off low after the floods of early March, and frankly I don't recall a single backdoor from from March 15 through August for that matter. Bizarre. Unfortunately, climatology forces our hand and we cannot count on that. I fully expect to be in visceral hatrid in about 20 days - so whatever we get, let's make it good, and hope these warm signals are overrout.

to all this

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Torching in SE MA right now. 40 in New Bedford at 10am, 42 on the Vineyard.

42.9 here, feels like Spring and that's not being a dick, it's gorgeous out. Light winds, great sun...nice.

This was a nice break, got a lot of roofs cleaned up around the south shore, walks and driveways are a ton better too. Recoated the ice for the kids on bogs and ponds, overall perfect, now bring back the cold.

NEW BEDFORD CLOUDY 40 25 55 SW6

[CoastalWx]

The good winters have always come down from these epic runs. I fully expect to not return to the run we had. I do think we'll see some wintry stretches in the next 4-6 weeks, so maybe next week we can evaluate the state of winter, because I think we'll have a better idea if we do head that way or not. My guess is that it won't be 40F from now until April 1st. I also don't think we should rush any potential swing in the pattern after next week.

[DavisStraight]

[quoteYou've had a phenomenal winter? Seriously? it's been very good here but nothing unprecedented. Other areas obviously have been record breaking, but most of the interior #s I have seen haven't been that amazing. I noticed Hubbdave who's not too far from you has only had around 60", which I'm guessing is under his seasonal average.

]

I think we all feel its been phenomenal even with a late start because the storms came one after the other with no thaw in between building up a deep snow pack. If it ends up petering out from here til April then looking back it will really only have been a great 5-6 week period, but Im not throwing the towel in yet because surprises have been known to happen.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Listening to Sarah McLachlan

LOL. sniffling with tears streaming down his cheeks.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The good winters have always come down from these epic runs. I fully expect to not return to the run we had. I do think we'll see some wintry stretches in the next 4-6 weeks, so maybe next week we can evaluate the state of winter, because I think we'll have a better idea if we do head that way or not. My guess is that it won't be 40F from now until April 1st. I also don't think we should rush any potential swing in the pattern after next week.

Given the state of modeling right now I wouldn't rule out anything including a return to a stormy snowy pattern. Truth be told the models aren't accurate at 72 hours, so although the general teleconnects can be made in the long range they are really unrealiable there too. We probably won't know what's coming until it's in the D 4-6 day range.

What I don't like is that the ridge off the SE US Coast is exerting it's dominance.

[snowman21]

Looks like winter is trying to die a slow death now… gee wiz. All that fun entertaining hysteria of last week has been utterly destroyed over the weekend.

Tuesday event looks to whiff barring some oddly unseen circumstances. Friday’s former big deal is a no deal now - as in, doesn't seem to even exist interestingly enough. Wonder if that's wrong.

The pattern really is breaking at long last, so much so that an early mud season sets in if you believe the ECM/GGEM/NOGAPS…. The problem here is that it is late in the year to withstand a "thaw" - once you get into the middle of February, if the pattern once to thaw it will over-produce because the sun WILL overcompensate and push the temperature higher than guidance every time. Not open to debate. I won a couple of semesters forecasting in college because of one simple precept that almost never failed: If a warming trend is forecast in spring, go above guidance by 3-5F regardless of machine or man. This is because sun is unanimously under-handled post roughly the 10th of February any given year. This is true right through June, btw... Remember last year on May 25th, when the high was 96-99F at just about every climate site lower than 1000' elevation, but the forecast was 92F? It's just the way goes... if it looks 40ish out there with burgeoning SE US heights and a west deep layer flow, you'd better hit 50 pretty hard because it'll make it.

GFS has other ideas, but frankly, the –PNA and a dicey at best –NAO as the sun climbs in February isn’t throwing many stormy cold signals, therefore.

Either way, it seems futility snow season has begun. Yesterday’s 41F sunny snow eater ruined the “epic” nature of my snow pack in Ayer - I am sure this is true for most honest posters. It was melted all the way down to 24”. It was 35” at the end of the last snow. But now at 24, impressive but really okay for New England country-side. The snow banks will be a little resilient away from the sun as they are by nature denser, which sucks actually for me, because the rotary traffic is a nightmare because people can't see around the snow banks in order to enter the rotaries in a timely fashion. So the thing loses its appeal and just becomes a pain in arse. Granted, odd anomalies have happened in history; 1717 great snow took place from February into March, I believe. Barring something extraordinary, which by nature is exceptionally rare, we lose more than we get seasonally driven, going forward. Meteorolgoical spring begins on March 1.

That said, I usually am okay with this until the ides of March. After that, I pretty much consign March 15 to May 1 as hell on Earth. Last year was, ironically, exceptional in that there was not one cut-off low after the floods of early March, and frankly I don't recall a single backdoor from from March 15 through August for that matter. Bizarre. Unfortunately, climatology forces our hand and we cannot count on that. I fully expect to be in visceral hatrid in about 20 days - so whatever we get, let's make it good, and hope these warm signals are overrout.

Wow talk about writing the obituary to Winter 2010-11. Anyway, if anyone really needs to see snow all they have to do is jump on the Pike and head west to the Berkshires. I hear it still snows there every day and will do so into May.

[CoastalWx]

Given the state of modeling right now I wouldn't rule out anything including a return to a stormy snowy pattern. Truth be told the models aren't accurate at 72 hours, so although the general teleconnects can be made in the long range they are really unrealiable there too. We probably won't know what's coming until it's in the D 4-6 day range.

What I don't like is that the ridge off the SE US Coast is exerting it's dominance.

That's why we'll need help to the north, either from -nao or -epo ridging near AK. It's also why I said we may be thanking our latitude, because this could be a gradient pattern. Hopefully we are on the right side of the gradient. I think next week, we'll have a better idea of where we are heading, hopefully.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

That's why we'll need help to the north, either from -nao or -epo ridging near AK. It's also why I said we may be thanking our latitude, because this could be a gradient pattern. Hopefully we are on the right side of the gradient. I think next week, we'll have a better idea of where we are heading, hopefully.

Yep. Let's just hope we aren't getting the model fakeout right now with some signals to a colder return after the milder period we are in now/after this cold shot. In looking at d6/7 verifications the GFS has seemed to have the better idea FWIW...

[Ginx snewx]

It is very easy to pick out the city dwellers, the south coast posters and those that live on the south side of hills. Anyone deep in the countryside on the north side has an icy sheen over the pack and deep deep snow. Spent yesterday traveling from SW RI ( no worries about sandbags there scooter) to the interior border of CT Mass, city areas are less and grimy, countrysides are glass like deep cover. Some beautiful scenes this morning too off the rising sun. three days ago I stated max depth was reached, looks like that but the folks giving up, I do not know what to say, thaws happen winter returns.

[CoastalWx]

Yep. Let's just hope we aren't getting the model fakeout right now with some signals to a colder return after the milder period we are in now/after this cold shot. In looking at d6/7 verifications the GFS has seemed to have the better idea FWIW...

Models may rush things, but there are signs it may try to make a comeback, that's why I figure next week might offer some insight. The first interesting "event" imo will be Valentines Day. It could be in the single digits in Maine, and 60s to low 70s in the MA. Battle ground might be near here to within 80 miles north or south.

[Damage In Tolland]

What do the Euro ensembles do in the 11-15 day period?