CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What do the Euro ensembles do in the 11-15 day period? Gradient pattern after the 20th. Not terribly cold, but they shift the boundary south for now. I'm not 100% convinced it happens, so I want to see this signal hold for the next week. It may get pushed back a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Gradient pattern after the 20th. Not terribly cold, but they shift the boundary south for now. I'm not 100% convinced it happens, so I want to see this signal hold for the next week. It may get pushed back a few days Do they torch us 15th-20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Do they torch us 15th-20th? They are mild around the 14th to 15th. Cool down 16th and 17th, but then torch 18th -20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Do they torch us 15th-20th? these threads must be killing you right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 these threads must be killing you right now. I wonder if it's like a scene from Exorcism. As he reads this, his eyes start to smoke and his skin boils, as he mumbles "No torch" in a low pitch demonic tone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The good winters have always come down from these epic runs. I fully expect to not return to the run we had. I do think we'll see some wintry stretches in the next 4-6 weeks, so maybe next week we can evaluate the state of winter, because I think we'll have a better idea if we do head that way or not. My guess is that it won't be 40F from now until April 1st. I also don't think we should rush any potential swing in the pattern after next week. Eh? It's in the 40s today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Eh? It's in the 40s today.. i think he means it won't be 40F+ every single day the rest of the winter....i.e...winter is not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Eh? It's in the 40s today.. I meant 40+ every day from now until April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Models may rush things, but there are signs it may try to make a comeback, that's why I figure next week might offer some insight. The first interesting "event" imo will be Valentines Day. It could be in the single digits in Maine, and 60s to low 70s in the MA. Battle ground might be near here to within 80 miles north or south. GFS shows just that. On Valentines Day, Ian is wearing tight shorts as he delivers roses to Randy, while Eric in Maine is in a burly fur coat as he brings a bouquet of roses to Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS shows just that. On Valentines Day, Ian is wearing tight shorts as he delivers roses to Randy, while Eric in Maine is in a burly fur coat as he brings a bouquet of roses to Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 it might be time to make a "spring fever 2011" or "SNE Lawn Thread Season 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I meant 40+ every day from now until April 1st. Defintely some group suicide pacts if that were to occur. Hopefully you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I see at day 13 the GFS finally gets around to a more classic La Nina mild pattern for NE....well it's good to have that out near day 13 and lets keep it there. Edit: but it doesn't last..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wow talk about writing the obituary to Winter 2010-11. Anyway, if anyone really needs to see snow all they have to do is jump on the Pike and head west to the Berkshires. I hear it still snows there every day and will do so into May. No sir - that's not really what is written there. I said key things like "...if you go by those" and so forth, eludicating something other than writing off the winter. It's more at realism though, and getting people aware that the end is nearing... The winter, "probably" has maxed out though... Whether it ends abruptly or "dies a slow death" - meaning there can be additional events along a slow decline - remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I guess my inland somewhat elevated situation is really starting to pay off in these stale cold air masses and then the modified Pacific things such as we may have next week at times. Yesterday topped at 30 and today is only 30 at noon...may barely crack 32 before the clouds thicken. . But I'd trade it for a solid hit for one snowstorm this season. Eh? It's in the 40s today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That's very similar to the GFS ensembles (both the regular and reforecast). They are mild around the 14th to 15th. Cool down 16th and 17th, but then torch 18th -20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I guess my inland somewhat elevated situation is really starting to pay off in these stale cold air masses and then the modified Pacific things such as we may have next week at times. Yesterday topped at 30 and today is only 30 at noon...may barely crack 32 before the clouds thicken. . But I'd trade it for a solid hit for one snowstorm this season. I was talking more about the coastal plain rather than the interior, it's in the 30s here, mostly cloudy, with heavy icicles remaining intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 35.0F/28F here attm Lot's of dripping. Snow has really formed a dense, compacted 20-24" snowpack, down from a 29" or so one last week. Still, not bad. Drove around N ORH a lot today (car stuff) and many road crews out knocking down the banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well for all the nabobs of negativity here (tm Spiro Agnew)..... Last year doubled my snowfall after February 22nd. Maybe conventional wisdom favors a slow degradation of the snow pack, but the fight back of Winter against Spring's advance can produce the most enjoyable winter events of all...... But you just look at it from a different perspective than the Dec -> Feb 15th period when so much is about building up the snow depth..... 35.0F/28F here attm Lot's of dripping. Snow has really formed a dense, compacted 20-24" snowpack, down from a 29" or so one last week. Still, not bad. Drove around N ORH a lot today (car stuff) and many road crews out knocking down the banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Ray just dove into the Merrimack with cinder blocks strapped to both feet. Listening to Sarah McLachlan LOL. sniffling with tears streaming down his cheeks. Really is sad. 40.2\29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well for all the nabobs of negativity here (tm Spiro Agnew)..... Last year doubled my snowfall after February 22nd. Maybe conventional wisdom favors a slow degradation of the snow pack, but the fight back of Winter against Spring's advance can produce the most enjoyable winter events of all...... But you just look at it from a different perspective than the Dec -> Feb 15th period when so much is about building up the snow depth..... Well, you did get that one hella event... January was pretty good around here, but so far, totals are nothing like what many to the south, west, and east have seen. Hopefully that will change. At least the cold returns after today for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wind came up...gentle out of the south temp down to 42ish high was 46ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 welll the biggest snows up here are in feb and march the calendar doesnt dictate that winter is over, but the pattern has shifted to milder for sure. but if it shifts back in time, the calendar will still say winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The CFS is dropping napalm on the NE for March. Maybe Wang is experimenting with his equations before his baby is euthanized and the torch is passed to the younger, more brilliant post-doc at the CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 On a plus note...the sugar shacks must be about to open. The sap should be flowing nicely. Love a nice sap snow all laden on the trees and a trip to the local sugar shack to buy some freshly prepared maple syrup. Every stage of winter has it's nice parts. Wind came up...gentle out of the south temp down to 42ish high was 46ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's 45.1 here eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Seems like a 3-6 day warmup..maybe interspersed with a cool down. last week of Feb heavy snow and cold again. Still time to push the warmest anomolies south modelwise for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Seems like a 3-6 day warmup..maybe interspersed with a cool down. last week of Feb heavy snow and cold again. Still time to push the warmest anomolies south modelwise for next week what's your temp? I'm guessing 38-39? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 The type of torch we get is still in question...whether its a full blown ridge over us for a few days...or if we only get partially scraped by the warmer temps. There's a big difference between highs near 40 with a dewpoint in the mid 20s and lots of cloud cover vs a high near 50 with dewpoint 39 and sunshine in terms of snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 what's your temp? I'm guessing 38-39? I'm not home..in Windsor today..but whatever ORH is should be close.. 37 ish ..high will be 38 ..maybe 39..low dews/cloudy..so no melting except icicles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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