HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I think N ORH county into Monads will be the best spot for my particular area...probably a classic Gardner Hubbardston storm....where they can get 6-7" of paste and I see half that or less with longer ptype issues. I think the ZR should be watched in this area if the MLs warm for a bit. With a vortmax that is pretty darn potent and the associated height falls, I do think a flip to heavy wet snow is likely in the region...how much is the tougher question. Fixed... No, really... Winchendon always seems to win for these Sloppy blue crud that will break shear pins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Oh you weren't including hills of CT in zr and snow You might be too far south for much...but it will probably change to snow there too. It just depends where the vortmax tracks and when the height falls happen. Its def better to be north in this I think but it could still easily give a few inches there. Its not an easy forecast. I'm basing a lot of this off climo of marginal systems that hug the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam is a 3-6" outside shot at 4-8" deal here, Advisory event or a low warning event S ME looks beautiful on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 09z ETA tracks between the BM and ACK fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam is a 3-6" outside shot at 4-8" deal here, Advisory event or a low warning event Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 S ME looks beautiful on the NAM. I know! At least .5 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 You might be too far south for much...but it will probably change to snow there too. It just depends where the vortmax tracks and when the height falls happen. Its def better to be north in this I think but it could still easily give a few inches there. Its not an easy forecast. I'm basing a lot of this off climo of marginal systems that hug the coast. What about mostly zr here? is that possible? Do you remember a storm 6 or so winters ago? Walt was on the early morning AFD. initially it was supposed to be mostly down here..and that morning he issued an ice storm warning. We started as sleet..went to zr and had close to .50 of zr , while you guys got snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going with sort of 70/30 Euro/SREF blend. Tossing the GFS and UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Oh you weren't including hills of CT in zr and snow zr would be baaddd here, still a lot of ice left on trees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can anybody give euro qpf for up here? Waiting for messenger to chime in why the Nam is wrong and SE models are right... .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 S ME looks beautiful on the NAM. Yeah, The higher end of those ranges.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What time does the 12z RGEM come out? 10:30??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is going to be a wagons meh event. Wagons to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 zr would be baaddd here, still a lot of ice left on trees! Yeah I know..My trees are caked in close to 1/4 inch of ice..not to mention ice on roofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I think N ORH county into Monads will be the best spot for my particular area...probably a classic Gardner storm....where they can get 6-7" of paste and I see half that or less with longer ptype issues. I think the ZR should be watched in this area if the MLs warm for a bit. With a vortmax that is pretty darn potent and the associated height falls, I do think a flip to heavy wet snow is likely in the region...how much is the tougher question. Congrats, Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wow! For southern Nh Northern Mass!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if 4-8" verifiy we are going to have problems up here due to the heavy wet nature of the snow. Box was thinking of issueing wsw but said when talking to the other offices they held off. If the gfs comes in even close to the nam you bet they will issue a winter storm watch. what a winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if 4-8" verifiy we are going to have problems up here due to the heavy wet nature of the snow. Box was thinking of issueing wsw but said when talking to the other offices they held off. If the gfs comes in even close to the nam you bet they will issue a winter storm watch. what a winter!! For most I think it would be an advisory due to mixing keeping accumulations down. Note I said "most". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 IMBY question......... Is that ZR/IP or just plain rain for Central Middlesex Co MA at 42hr? Or does the NAM simply not know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Also low rations will keep accumulations down. Ratios look to be 8:1 or 10:1 except towards the end of the storm late Sat. Night when heights crash. For most I think it would be an advisory due to mixing keeping accumulations down. Note I said "most". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NCEP fail still. RGEM has one huge rainstorm...low is in PA. Way warmer than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NCEP fail still. RGEM has one huge rainstorm...low is in PA. Way warmer than the NAM. That's awesome! (in a funny but bad kind of way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That's awesome! (in a funny but bad kind of way). It will be kind of awesome if the GFS/NAM stay colder and everything else is toasty. Would be time to stop making excuses for the NCEP model performance....can't get it right in a blocking pattern, can't get it right in a progressive pattern etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Why is it NCEP fail? Why not RGEM fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 so no consensus yet, on p-type/thermal profiles or track/strength of Low...is there a consensus on start and stop time of precip? i'd like to go skiing tomorrow (Pats Peak) it's a 2hr and some change drive for me(one-way)...but not if it means driving 2hrs in a bunch of crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It will be kind of awesome if the GFS/NAM stay colder and everything else is toasty. Would be time to stop making excuses for the NCEP model performance....can't get it right in a blocking pattern, can't get it right in a progressive pattern etc etc. Do you think in Japan they post images from the NAM/GFS and laugh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Okay so it looks like rain Saturday that may end as a brief period of light to moderate snow in the late-late of Saturday night. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 here comes the GFS rainstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Do you think in Japan they post images from the NAM/GFS and laugh? Lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 here comes the GFS rainstorm... YEP, epic...look at 18 hours, tight spiral further west. The bias is gone, the witch is dead, and DT is right the pattern really has changed. The days of locking up everything as the snowy solution are over. Lmao. I'm pretty sure they don't use our models at all. The Japanese have a thing about precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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