Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z NAM actually looks more in line with the Euro/GGEM/Ukie now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still too far north. Good stuff seems to be in srn NH and ME. Nice flip for ORH and especially north, but the good stuff scoots out as it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How can the NAM slow down the S/W so much in 6 hrs??? Something is really wrong at ncep... It's in line with the rgem and ukie. Right in TN it was well west of the 0z ncep suite and that's the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What a POS model..tossed Which one you banging for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still too far north. Good stuff seems to be in srn NH and ME. Nice flip for ORH and especially north, but the good stuff scoots out as it gets going. Well even ORH is warm at hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Actually flips you guys to snow on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well even ORH is warm at hr 42. Looks like a nice little hit at 45 and 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Which one you banging for this event? Euro shifted SE a bit and mesomodels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z NAM actually looks more in line with the Euro/GGEM/Ukie now. Don't know what the euro showed but it's very similar to the other two. Mid levels start/stay further west into TN and Ohio and the rest is a mess. A day or so of false hope from inferior ncep models. It's bad when the rgem is kicking butt. Remember the other day it had the mix line near orh and Worcester by 12z for 36hrs while our models were too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like a nice little hit at 45 and 48h Yeah it swings a little deformation/ccb area overhead, but it would be nice for it to be a little more south with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro shifted SE a bit and mesomodels Yeah, I would be riding the Euro, It seems like its been pretty much consistant with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I will take the 12Z NAM to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL, this is almost a Sunday morning event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah it swings a little deformation/ccb area overhead, but it would be nice for it to be a little more south for that. There's freezing rain issues early on in the event with the first batch too at like 33 hours. I think I'm sticking to my forecast in the hills here of wintry mix transitioning to all snow and probably a quick 2-5 before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like a nice little hit at 45 and 48h What a crazy run. Happy to see what I think is a few inches regardless of how and when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM goes right up Phil's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM goes right up Phil's fanny. Luckily still not a ton of qpf just to your north Easton Sharon etc or roofs may be bustin' Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For the mets..how can you guys make a forecast for this? You've got the obviously too amped up west RGEM/Ukie..and then the SE GFS/Ensembles/Sref's/ and the Euro and mesos SE of ACK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There's freezing rain issues early on in the event with the first batch too at like 33 hours. I think I'm sticking to my forecast in the hills here of wintry mix transitioning to all snow and probably a quick 2-5 before ending. Yeah I would think that's a good start for your guys that you have, especially north of you. Sometimes these dynamic flips love to occur a little earlier than we think over the hills up that way. It sort of has that look up that way..even on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 There's freezing rain issues early on in the event with the first batch too at like 33 hours. I think I'm sticking to my forecast in the hills here of wintry mix transitioning to all snow and probably a quick 2-5 before ending. Nice..I'd take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL, this is almost a Sunday morning event now. ugggghh 5 am drive down to logan for 8:10 flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For the mets..how can you guys make a forecast for this? You've got the obviously too amped up west RGEM/Ukie..and then the SE GFS/Ensembles/Sref's/ and the Euro and mesos SE of ACK... I'm not too sold on the se model camp. Probably something like the euro imo, and the NAM is similar. Just my guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I would think that's a good start for your guys that you have, especially north of you. Sometimes these dynamic flips love to occur a little earlier than we think over the hills up that way. It sort of has that look up that way..even on the NAM. Hi! Euroish 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can anybody give euro qpf for up here? Waiting for messenger to chime in why the Nam is wrong and SE models are right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Which model he bangin? http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45322/weekend-snowstorm-eyes-appalac-1.asp not forkyfork's thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What's your take on the continued push back in timing? I always begin to get antsy when timing shifts as to how it plays into the outcome of of things other than the timing. Plus, it's pretty late in the game to be pushing back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I would think that's a good start for your guys that you have, especially north of you. Sometimes these dynamic flips love to occur a little earlier than we think over the hills up that way. It sort of has that look up that way..even on the NAM. Yeah I think N ORH county into Monads will be the best spot for my particular area...probably a classic Gardner storm....where they can get 6-7" of paste and I see half that or less with longer ptype issues. I think the ZR should be watched in this area if the MLs warm for a bit. With a vortmax that is pretty darn potent and the associated height falls, I do think a flip to heavy wet snow is likely in the region...how much is the tougher question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I got a 5AM drive to White plains for a flight on Sun AM! ugggghh 5 am drive down to logan for 8:10 flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I think N ORH county into Monads will be the best spot for my particular area...probably a classic Gardner storm....where they can get 6-7" of paste and I see half that or less with longer ptype issues. I think the ZR should be watched in this area if the MLs warm for a bit. With a vortmax that is pretty darn potent and the associated height falls, I do think a flip to heavy wet snow is likely in the region...how much is the tougher question. Oh you weren't including hills of CT in zr and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam is a 3-6" outside shot at 4-8" deal here, Advisory event or a low warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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