Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 this winter sucks. Cold Jan since 1985? and my snow on is on the verge of melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 good looking storm with no surface low and a 1012 L in michigan the 500 pattern over north america looks much more favorable as you get into feb but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 where is the -NAO don promised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 where is the -NAO don promised? nina se ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 where is the -NAO don promised? It's hanging out with the cold and stormy March we were supposed to have last year. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 nina se ridge! Nina wins. it shows up for the last 10 days of Met winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM looks good if your considering suicide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ji, you are on a rampage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM looks good if your considering suicide Looks the same as the GFS track but, randomly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JI, You ok? Jeb just PM'd me and he's worried about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM looks good if your considering suicide The models suck so bad this year it is disgusting. For 5 days out, i am concerned but know that what is being shown in this range is not the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 where is the -NAO don promised? he mistyped with respect to blocking, me meant -NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JI, You ok? Jeb just PM'd me and he's worried about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty sure this is not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ukie ain't so bad with the overrunning, but she'll cut like the rest of the models eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty sure this is not happening. us nothing - check boston heavy snow - check yeah crazy talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 every run has gotten warmer since yesterday...this one is over Dude we have more than 2 days before you can make any statement like this. The probability of ice storm vs rain depends on the position of the pv in canada and how strong that storm is. With a strong PV camped a few miles further south and a weaker storm, we have more confluence in NE and the high pressure will be kept in place. But if we have a stronger primary low and a PV farther north we get less Confluence over New england and more southerly/easterly winds scouring out all the low level cold air via the primary low. Watch the evolution of those two things in the coming days. Though Im thinking the CAD will be modeled stronger eventually as that seems to be the case with models in that they don't catch the strength of the CAD until around 24-30 hours before the storm hits. IMO this is snow to major ice to maybe a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 us nothing - check boston heavy snow - check yeah crazy talk! thats probably ice for us with bending in the isobars and the lil area of mix in S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 thats probably ice for us with bending in the isobars and the lil area of mix in S VA it's cute that you think you are an ice expert now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 us nothing - check boston heavy snow - check yeah crazy talk! I meant the precip shield looks whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I meant the precip shield looks whack. not if a giant hydrogen bomb goes off during the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 like I said, this winter will not stop finding a way to screw us figure the odds with all that cold http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 like I said, this winter will not stop finding a way to screw us figure the odds with all that cold http://vortex.plymou...t=h72&cu=latest Baltimore just got a foot of snow, how can you seriously still be complaining? Second, the amount of cold around will have nothing to do with the final outcome. It doesn't matter if its -10 degrees 24 hours before the storm, if it amps too far west and with no block or -nao it cuts to the lakes we will warm. Maybe not at the surface but definitely 850. Yes its cold, but frankly right now the setup is horrible. Trough axis way too far west, and no blocking at all. What part of that would be bad luck? Its not a good pattern for us. We had a shot if it was just a weak surface wave slamming into the arctic high but this setup is all wrong now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Baltimore just got a foot of snow, how can you seriously still be complaining? Second, the amount of cold around will have nothing to do with the final outcome. It doesn't matter if its -10 degrees 24 hours before the storm, if it amps too far west and with no block or -nao it cuts to the lakes we will warm. Maybe not at the surface but definitely 850. Yes its cold, but frankly right now the setup is horrible. Trough axis way too far west, and no blocking at all. What part of that would be bad luck? Its not a good pattern for us. We had a shot if it was just a weak surface wave slamming into the arctic high but this setup is all wrong now. for all those highlighted reasons, to answer your first question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Baltimore just got a foot of snow, how can you seriously still be complaining? Second, the amount of cold around will have nothing to do with the final outcome. It doesn't matter if its -10 degrees 24 hours before the storm, if it amps too far west and with no block or -nao it cuts to the lakes we will warm. Maybe not at the surface but definitely 850. Yes its cold, but frankly right now the setup is horrible. Trough axis way too far west, and no blocking at all. What part of that would be bad luck? Its not a good pattern for us. We had a shot if it was just a weak surface wave slamming into the arctic high but this setup is all wrong now. Woudn''t the PV position prevent an all out lake's cutter? I mean its directly in the way of the primary and if I am not mistaken, is what is holding the high pressure system in place. If that pv is any farther south, and the low was weaker, wouldn't it prevent a lakes cutter or at least keep the cold air in place by promoting confluence in new england? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not if a giant hydrogen bomb goes off during the storm Good stuff. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the euro is pretty ugly.. warmer than last run, pretty much nothing wintry on the front unless up far nw. 1004mb low over indiana at 102. big energy in the sw though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice and rainy on the 0z Euro for the February 2nd storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 next thur/fri have epic boringness for the u.s. -- another run with no precip anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nice bowling ball moving into tx at 162 .. held this piece back longer last run and developed a storm at d 9/10, this looks earlier/better but i guess it's way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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