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talk about tv/lwx/other mets here regarding the storm or whatever else you think of

real

By real,
in Mid Atlantic

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DCWeatherGuy

DCWeatherGuy

Posted
Posted

The DC mets and LWX underplaying this is going go cause some horrible problems today.

A few min ago, Tom Kierein on WRC-4 just had an odd map wth a 5-10 zone directly next to a 1-5 zone, with the dividing line in the NW portion of the District. Sort of odd that he seems to appreciate that the NAM is saying that the jackpot is just a bit north and west of DC, yet unaware that every model is saying that there won't be all that much dropoff in the immediate southern DC burbs,.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

A few min ago, Tom Kierein on WRC-4 just had an odd map wth a 5-10 zone directly next to a 1-5 zone, with the dividing line in the NW portion of the District. Sort of odd that he seems to appreciate that the NAM is saying that the jackpot is just a bit north and west of DC, yet unaware that every model is saying that there won't be all that much dropoff in the immediate southern DC burbs,.

The bad part is that he has a 1-5" contour... talk about playing it safe :P Not the worst thing ever in a snow forecast, but it is quite a wide range for the lower amounts.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

I predict the evening rush around DC will look like the road from Kuwait City to Basra at the end of the First Gulf War.

Interesting first post :arrowhead:

It's going to be really bad, but perhaps not as bad as it could have been. The surprise snow this morning closed schools and I imagine a good chunk of people stayed home. It could have been much worse if it was all rain and people went to work unaware of the insanity ahead.

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Derecho!

Derecho!

Posted
Posted

Interesting first post :arrowhead:

It's going to be really bad, but perhaps not as bad as it could have been. The surprise snow this morning closed schools and I imagine a good chunk of people stayed home. It could have been much worse if it was all rain and people went to work unaware of the insanity ahead.

Eh, I was on WW and Eastern for years, posting in bursts; the switchover to American happened when I was really busy and I didn't know about it. I mostly care about the tropics.

At my office building here in Arlington the underground parking lot is just as full as it always is. I've been telling everyone to leave at 1PM if they can, though.

I have a grad school class at Georgetown tonight at 6PM which I have no intention of going to, but the school is still officially open.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

It's very frustrating that the layman/public are going to chalk this storm up as yet another complete miss by the meteorologists when the opposite is so true. Between LWX's cautiousness and the media's stunning ignorance, people are thinking only a couple inches more this evening. I bet 75-90% of the public thinks the 3-6" type forecasts on the media include the several inches of snow from this morning. :axe:

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Sandra Shaw on WBAL was talking about how downtown Baltimore just got fringed because there were only 5" of snow on the ground in Canton :arrowhead:

What about all the reports (on here and on Sterling's page) showing 8-10" around Baltimore??

The media mets did absolutely disgracefully bad on this storm.

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snowfan

snowfan

Posted
Posted

Marty Bass is a disgrace.

IIRC, he has a communications degree from Southern Illinois. Somehow, that gives him the ability to give a forecast. WJZ should drop Bass, Turk and Williams. They should build a team around Bernadette and go from there. Their team, as a whole, is disgraceful.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

It's like all the Baltimore TV weather folk never got over the December 26 shenanigans and it has thrown them off the rest of the season.

all forecasters bust.. only weenies think they dont and whine when they do.

it is odd that you can get into the shorter range and get run after run after run after run of good models showing snow and most act like it's not going to do anything. i mean we do see that crap in the mid-long range a lot, but not nearly as much in the shorter range.

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lester

lester

Posted
Posted
<br />The "Futurecast model" from WBAL showing the mixing line go NORTH throughout the morning! Are you kidding?!? <a href='http://www.wbaltv.com/slideshow/weather/26674670/detail.html' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://www.wbaltv.co...670/detail.html</a><br />
<br /><br /><br />

What model are they using?!

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Found another link that has a real deal out of it: http://www.wbaltv.co...b_wxwidget=true

WHAT I POSTED was from earlier in the year... that was odd. The first link has no date! Had to pull up the video forecast to confirm the issuance time :rolleyes: They might want to fix that considering it was one of the top results when I googled Baltimore futurecast.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I've certainly underplayed this but during the events last year and the JAn 26 event, think my guesses were pretty good. I don't balme the mets for being conservative. It's pretty easy for enthusiasts (not you) to forecast heavy snow for each event that a model shows as having potential for heavy snow. It's tougher when you are making public forecast. I got killed after the boxer day non-storm and the CWG forecasts were the least bullish in the area. Now people are complaining about forecasts that haven't yet verified for this event when the models except for the Euro were not very bullish until the 00Z run.

Snagged from the other thread...

I wasn't really referring to CWG even though I think there have been times where CWG has played catch up as well. I guess it's just something that has to happen here given our snow climo. I certainly don't fault anyone for missing Dec 26 as an honest appraisal of it is that just about everyone was wrong at one point. I totally agree with you though. It's a lot easier for some anon guy here to post that LWX or such and such don't know what they are doing, and this board or elsewhere is so much further along in knowledge, but we are 'allowed' a lot more error here since a few hundred at most are reading it and there are no consequences for repeatedly going for big snow and only being right 1/10th (or less) of the time.

I would say though that I think there was pretty good agreement a few days ago that even in D.C. we'd get some accumulation whether or not it was a lot.

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

all forecasters bust.. only weenies think they dont and whine when they do.

it is odd that you can get into the shorter range and get run after run after run after run of good models showing snow and most act like it's not going to do anything. i mean we do see that crap in the mid-long range a lot, but not nearly as much in the shorter range.

True dat on the bold. Where I have been surprised is how cautious the 12/26 bust seems to have made even the good ones in Baltimore. Certainly Tasselmyer and Pann have been very cautious since and in catch-up mode more often than not.

I know he posts here some, so, props to Justin Berk, who was more bullish that the others on the previous event. Don't know what his take has been on this one (he may not have been on-air over the weekend on Channel 2 here in Baltimore.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

True dat on the bold. Where I have been surprised is how cautious the 12/26 bust seems to have made even the good ones in Baltimore. Certainly Tasselmyer and Pann have been very cautious since and in catch-up mode more often than not.

I know he posts here some, so, props to Justin Berk, who was more bullish that the others on the previous event. Don't know what his take has been on this one (he may not have been on-air over the weekend on Channel 2 here in Baltimore.

By and large caution is the right policy around here. I'm not even really interested in calling people out about that caution, just wondering if we will ever be in a case where we feel comfortable going with bigger totals initially here. Heck even last yrs events started as 4-8 before creeping up even when they looked bigger than that at the outset. I guess this is my lack of formal education in the field coming to bite me -- it just feels like poor communication in some ways.

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