Voyager Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 AIR RAID!!!! I can't for the life of me decipher that precip map bottom right. Who gets what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I can't for the life of me decipher that precip map bottom right. Who gets what? South central and SE gets blown off the face of the earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Speaking of driving....I'm hoping my boss will let me leave early tomorrow. I will be driving 83 all the way north from Baltimore...sooooooooooooo..going to be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CTP does really paint a nuisance minor event. Boy just their wording in this discussion...it is oh, ok no big deal just a slop mess. Interesting... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ENDS UP LOOKING MUCH LIKE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS. THIS IS ALL VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST/NUMBERS WE HAVE BEEN ISSUING FOR A FEW DAYS. ADVY AND WATCH FLAGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON A TRACK OFF THE COAST. 8H TEMPS JUST APPCH 0C...BUT OTHER THICKNESS MEASURES AS WELL AS THE SFC TEMPS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WOULD CUT THE SNOW ACCUMS DOWN FROM THE 8:1 RATIO WE ARE ALREADY EXPECTING THERE. EVEN WHERE THE AIR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...MORE OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE SNOW COVER...AND MOST LIKELY LESS ON THE BLACKTOP DUE TO IT/S LOW ALBEDO AND THE MAINLY-DAYLIGHT PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW/PRECIP. EVEN IN MID JANUARY...THE SUN HAS A MINIMIZING EFFECT ON SNOW ACCUMS. THEREFORE HAVE PAINTED 10:1 OR WETTER RATIOS. AS THE SUN SETS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LAURELS AND TOWARD THE SUSQ RIVER. AS THE TEMPS GET COLDER...LESS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BUT...ACCUMS THERE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AFTER THEN. IT SHOULD BE ALL OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. WINDS DO NOT GET STRONG SINCE THE LOW WILL NOT BE DEEPENING RAPIDLY NEARBY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...THE POST- FRONTAL FLOW WILL CREATE UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE WEST - AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would hate to be in BGM's position forecasting for the southeastern zones. NEPA is so dicey. I mean look at the NAM -- 0.50 QPF here and the NW corner of Luzerne gets 0.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CTP does really paint a nuisance minor event. Boy just their wording in this discussion...it is oh, ok no big deal just a slop mess. Interesting... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ENDS UP LOOKING MUCH LIKE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS. THIS IS ALL VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST/NUMBERS WE HAVE BEEN ISSUING FOR A FEW DAYS. ADVY AND WATCH FLAGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON A TRACK OFF THE COAST. 8H TEMPS JUST APPCH 0C...BUT OTHER THICKNESS MEASURES AS WELL AS THE SFC TEMPS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WOULD CUT THE SNOW ACCUMS DOWN FROM THE 8:1 RATIO WE ARE ALREADY EXPECTING THERE. EVEN WHERE THE AIR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...MORE OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE SNOW COVER...AND MOST LIKELY LESS ON THE BLACKTOP DUE TO IT/S LOW ALBEDO AND THE MAINLY-DAYLIGHT PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW/PRECIP. EVEN IN MID JANUARY...THE SUN HAS A MINIMIZING EFFECT ON SNOW ACCUMS. THEREFORE HAVE PAINTED 10:1 OR WETTER RATIOS. AS THE SUN SETS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LAURELS AND TOWARD THE SUSQ RIVER. AS THE TEMPS GET COLDER...LESS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BUT...ACCUMS THERE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AFTER THEN. IT SHOULD BE ALL OVER BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. WINDS DO NOT GET STRONG SINCE THE LOW WILL NOT BE DEEPENING RAPIDLY NEARBY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...THE POST- FRONTAL FLOW WILL CREATE UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE WEST - AGAIN. I got the impression the watches by the surrounding offices ''forced'' them to issue a WSW for Adams/York/Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here comes the RGEM color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I got the impression the watches by the surrounding offices ''forced'' them to issue a WSW for Adams/York/Lancaster Probably! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I got the impression the watches by the surrounding offices ''forced'' them to issue a WSW for Adams/York/Lancaster almost seems that way. They just appear to be so not interested that every model seems to be trending towards a stronger event and their timing to me is off. The main core of the snow will fall at night when it will be best for accumulations. I did agree with them issuing Advisory for us in MDT for now BUT thought there wording in their discussion would come across a bit more stronger to alert folks better of the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy hell! What time is that frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT's map is up and it seems to be in line with NWS. 3-6 inches for MDT, 6-12 for York/Lancaster. So far JB is the only met I've seen who has publicly gone with the bigger numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My guesses: MDT 3-5" Lancaster: 6-8" York: 6-8" State College: 3-6" Altoona: 2-4" Johnstown: You have enough snow already. (Kidding, I have no idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18Z GFS is about the same. Bet it comes north next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18Z GFS is about the same. Bet it comes north next run. I am hearing the GFS is further west and wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0Z runs could be epic. I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am hearing the GFS is further west and wetter! Eh not really. Down south it is. But the random qpf shield is whack this run. It's has straight lines. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 haha while i was away from my comp i thought i heard wild cheering... i guess it was you guys seeing those rgem and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 18z GFS had a double-low at 12...don't know if that could have impacted things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS site keeps crashing! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So light snow/rain mix looks to start here around mid-morning and then heavy snow from early afternoon through late evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That RGEM is indeed quite nice, and very similar to the Euro's QPF placement. However, judging by the reaction from seeing it I"m assuming you folks are taking that QPF scale in American units. Since the RGEM is Canadian, and that map's not from Ewall.. the units on that scale are in MM and approx 25 millimeters is about an inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bottom right is total QPF... Sorry what I had posted was 40km resolution output totals.. this map here is much higher resolution at 12km and the higher resolution output does have much higher values (.91" Harrisburg / .98" York!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The radar is looking pretty epic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My guesses: MDT 3-5" Lancaster: 6-8" York: 6-8" State College: 3-6" Altoona: 2-4" Johnstown: You have enough snow already. (Kidding, I have no idea) I'm sticking by my 6-9" for us bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Been burned too much with these tight gradients. I hope I'm underdoing it - CTP says we see 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Really has that damp, chill-to-your bones feel to it outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Since we have some newbies here just remember to measure on a clean surface, not in the grass or in an area with old snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez...down towards Florida it kind of looks like the squall line seen in the 1993 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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