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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    0z UKie
  2. TellicoWx
    Individual members
  3. TellicoWx
    Nice improvement on the 0z GEFS
  4. TellicoWx
    UKie/Euro/CMC (even with it's meandering run which gives the snow) are consolidating the energy along the southern end = cutter city...GFS is kinda on an island, but has taken steps toward the others (went from initial low up into Canada to winding up over the GL)...bias maybe, but "if" toward the tail then need it to keep digging to our south.
  5. TellicoWx
    Dr No strikes again lol
  6. TellicoWx
    00z Euro
  7. TellicoWx
    Yeah def a weird run...closes it off and drives it south while taking its time at 500..meanders across the forum
  8. TellicoWx
    00z GEFs looks better than 18z
  9. TellicoWx
    00z CMC
  10. TellicoWx
    12z vs 00z 500...both still produce areas of 6+ across the forum..GFS keeps honking about something lol
  11. TellicoWx
    And somehow still manages to produce for middle and east TN..will give it this, no matter how much it changes the 500 up.. it still produces (so far). Don't trust anything outside 60-72 hrs on any Op tho.
  12. TellicoWx
    Down side: 18z GEFs lost most of it's big producers Upside: It's the 18z GEFs lol 18z OP dug the energy a little more, slowing the front..but also had the energy more consolidated with the northern LP.
  13. TellicoWx
    Just glancing at this, but would bet the EPS is alot more like the GFS than the OP run. Euro OP consolidated the energy over the lakes (bombing the LP there)..EPS mean looks to track the parent LP into SE Canada similar to the GFS...need that separation.
  14. TellicoWx
    12z 500 vort: GFS/CMC/UKMET
  15. TellicoWx
    UKie at 144 is similar to the CMC vs GFS...GFS is more progressive with the front and secondary low at that point..UKie just further SW with the secondary. LP over the lake is pulling the front thru, all models showing their bias at this range.
  16. TellicoWx
    Hard to tell on pivotal cause it is on snow depth, but 12z GEFs looks better than 00z...Have they loaded for you Holstons?
  17. TellicoWx
    If the Apps can slow the front down giving the energy enough time to develop along the tail, things could get really interesting or if the trailing energy phases somewhat. Just glad to see modeling agree somewhat at this range with anything from a lee side low to a more miller A ish development...those range scenarios have proven to perform in the past. Give me a chance with a strong arctic front with energy along the tail any day of the week lol
  18. TellicoWx
    Been a cold raw day here...temps started dropping around 11 this morning
  19. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR/3k NAM is kinda what I had playing out in my mind the other day. Global models usually tend to struggle when BL issues ars as close as it has been...meso models seem to be adjusting as we get closer..if rates are close to what's modeled, could def see a nice event west of the plateau...rooting for those guys.
  20. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR
  21. TellicoWx
    00z 3k NAM
  22. TellicoWx
    Yeah..made me laugh too...00z NAM made things interesting.
  23. TellicoWx
    18z GFS run pretty much sums up last several years of winters for TN...entire state is a snowhole lol
  24. TellicoWx
    Think we are starting to get somewhat of a solution...compromise between the progressive bias of the GFS and the overamping bias of the Euro (seems to have gotten worse since the upgrade, esp at mid range)...a weak southern slider, that has some boundary layer issues. Wouldn't be surprised to see the final solution be a 1-3" swath somewhere across the Mid south.
  25. TellicoWx
    GFS/Euro usually are at odds with each other but this is par for 2020 I guess lol...6z GFS=Noah's Ark across the Mid south/TN valley..0z Euro= Winter wonderland..polar opposites
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