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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    There was a study done on one of the old forums several years ago centered around Atlanta regarding what phases/amplitudes they scored sig winter weather in...surprisingly the COD produced more than any other amplitude. I believe you hit the nail on the head...to score we have to rely on a weak version of the SER (more so for the eastern side of the state. Over amplify in cold phases and the cold overbears the Gulf...reverse for the warm phases..torch city.
  2. TellicoWx
    Awesome, thanks for the report. Town ended up with 1.8"....decent little event.
  3. TellicoWx
    Think our middle TN folks would call it winter complete with that 00z GFS run for the end of the week lol..
  4. TellicoWx
    Still coming down at a nice pace.. definitely over performed here in town
  5. TellicoWx
    Still coming down at a good clip (about 2 miles from town)...Coker Creek area. Couple inches on the ground, roads slushy
  6. TellicoWx
    Picked up .75" on the snow board in town..if you count what melted before sunset..looks like the RGEM did the best IMBY...think it is one of Holstons favorite winter models
  7. TellicoWx
    Pretty impressed for town (upslope only works out maybe 5% of the time). Good start to the season...maybe, just maybe it will be a good winter. We had what seemed like great teleconnections the last couple years that went exactly opposite. May as well try the opposite lol.
  8. TellicoWx
    Heavy dusting with everything turning white in downtown Tellico (830')...can only imagine what it looks like at Stratton Meadows (5400') on the Skyway
  9. TellicoWx
    Cherohala skyway about 2100' from a friend a couple hours ago
  10. TellicoWx
    Starting to get some stickage on patios and grassy areas between Madisonville/Tellico..elev 1100'
  11. TellicoWx
    Yeah you can go from 870' in town to 5600' in a 17 mile span...I figure it will be hammering up there this evening
  12. TellicoWx
    Yeah if the valley is going to see a dusting or so, that is the area to watch..6z NAM was keying on that area but backed off on 12z
  13. TellicoWx
    Yeah, if you are a weather enthusiast, Tellico is an interesting place. You can go from 42 and rain to a blizzard and 25 in 15 mins down the road lol
  14. TellicoWx
    Mixing at the house 1900' and 35, it's switched over to Graupel in Madisonville (900'). From what I've heard so far, the state line on the Skyway changed over around 5am.
  15. TellicoWx
    6z 3k NAM seems to be picking up on maybe a little more energy rotating down the backside Holston mentioned earlier...now has the upslope producing in the Great Valley
  16. TellicoWx
    18z HRRR continues increasing the UH up the valley
  17. TellicoWx
    12z UH NSSL, ARW, 3K
  18. TellicoWx
    Def agree with Quincy, guidance is converging more in those areas...may finally be nearing an agreement. Only area with a bigger question mark is the southern valley of TN/NW GA.
  19. TellicoWx
    12z 3k and CAMs looking more like HRRR as far as UH
  20. TellicoWx
    Being the Fire Capt. at the time for a town here in SE TN...the morning convection spawned several touchdowns here on 4/27. It also did little to suppress the evening convection as it moved thru. Spent half the night going house to house doing search and rescue in the middle of the storms.
  21. TellicoWx
    Strong wording in MRX AFD..kinda surprised me considering they are usually leaning conservative: the favorable jet coupling aloft, this event has the potential to pose the most significant tornado threat we have had since April 27, 2011
  22. TellicoWx
    I could see HUN doing something (possibly BNA), but until (or if) the Euro lowers the surface temps I dont see MRX pulling the trigger. SPS yes, Watch no.
  23. TellicoWx
    It's not an expansion of the precip shield as much as it is the path the 925 energy takes to our south. The circles area is the energy on the 00z NAM..as it crosses from MS into AL/GA line, it then transfers off the SE Carolina coast. Starting with the 18z (now 00z), the NAM has ticked slightly south with its path before transfer..taking the moisture return and dynamics to closer along the TN border. GFS is very similar to the NAM, while the 18z Euro took a big step in that direction (it would have looked very similar on snow output but it is about 4-6 degrees warmer right at the surface). How that piece treks south of us, will determine the haves and have nots.
  24. TellicoWx
    00z NAM sounding is almost a mirror image of the sounding last week...would be some nice big wet flakes.
  25. TellicoWx
    Yeah it is..the 925 was a tick further south (but by just 10 mi or so. If NAM is to be believed..10 mi could make a big difference on the cutoff.
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