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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    I've noticed a few people are getting the surface low and the 850 vort comfused, they are 2 separate things. The surface has been roughly locked in going along the coast in more of a Miller A style. The totals across the TN/KY line include the front-end snow, which the central and southern valley will miss. The angle and exact pivot point of the 850 is what makes or breaks the valley. Just glancing at the FV3, it is pivoting or transferring sooner and maxing out the uvv's over the valley as well in the coma head leading to the crazy output.
  2. TellicoWx
    TYS Snowfall range: GEFS: 1"-8" EPS: 0.5"-24"
  3. TellicoWx
    Everything is still on the board, GEFS/EPS members are all over the place...its almost as if they are saying it's either go big or go home scenario
  4. TellicoWx
    The problem is their is no consensus across any modeling really right now on how to handle it, even individual ensemble members. EPS has members that go from nothing for everyone nearly to members that make the epic 12z run the other day look like a walk in the park.
  5. TellicoWx
    None off the top of my head, but we have seen the Euro go from taking it completely south of us, to shooting it to Indiana, now to south of us then split in two for a sec. The wild ride is far from over I believe.
  6. TellicoWx
    Until the transfer is worked out, it seems there is some wild swings on the individual members of the EPS...absolute crush jobs board wide.
  7. TellicoWx
    Here's the closer one
  8. TellicoWx
    12z EPS
  9. TellicoWx
    After looking over everything, I believe the Euro is having some problems on how to handle the transfer to the coastal. When it begins it's transfer over N AL, it splits the low into two distinct pieces #1 due North to the middle TN/KY border, #2 ESE into GA heading for the coast. The transfer should have been more smoothly. Due to this odd scenario, it shoots the 850s way up over East TN responding to the #1 piece. A smoother transfer and this would have been an even more major storm for the board. Sorry for the long post.
  10. TellicoWx
    Very weird couple frames...it wants to jump the 850 vort (that is traveling due east) in northern MS/AL, into the KY/TN line due north at a 90 def turn.
  11. TellicoWx
    I'm kinda at a loss on that run, looked great but for some reason it shoots the 850s up the valley at 90/96...trying to find the driver for it and at a loss. If not for that it would have been a great run.
  12. TellicoWx
    120 it starts it's transfer to the coastal
  13. TellicoWx
  14. TellicoWx
    Vast improvement on 850 vort compared to 00z in Indiana
  15. TellicoWx
    102 the 850 vort is south of 00z
  16. TellicoWx
    Hopefully the 850 comes back south, the 00z roasted NE TN and spelled ice storm instead of snow.
  17. TellicoWx
    Yes it's messing up the thermals in a big way. Here is an example from the epic 12z Euro and the current 00z...the 850 went from tracking south of TN thru MS/AL, to now being up in KY. The 850 has to track completely south of us or phase to the coastal sooner.
  18. TellicoWx
    It's not a "true" Miller A, more of a hybrid Miller B. The warm nose in central TN is in response to the uv riding up into that region before pivoting into the coastal. 6z had that more sw flow up the valley compared to the 12z. My guess is it's pivoting just a little quicker which helps the eastern valley.
  19. TellicoWx
    Next frame you can see the 925s response with plenty of moisture still on going. Just one model run, but a step in right direction for GFS.
  20. TellicoWx
    WxBell site
  21. TellicoWx
    Big improvement in the 850s as the comma comes overhead in East TN. Also, increased the precip rates which may translate to the surface better.
  22. TellicoWx
    6z GFS vs 12z GFS
  23. TellicoWx
    Good point on the wobbling and not dialed in, here is a good example of this on the 6z GEFS...basically almost a coinflip at TYS.
  24. TellicoWx
    00z EPS is close to same, exception is south of 40 and the valley the totals came down. Looks similar to the OP, so finally starting to get a consensus.
  25. TellicoWx
    Yeah the NAMs HiRes helps it when dealing with microclimates in short range. When dealing with microclimates even a 5 mi shift can have a dramatic effect so with so much variability when extended out it results in some wild swings.
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