TellicoWx

MRX AFD: Main flooding concern starts late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Strong upper jet becomes established over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys with strong upper divergence over the area from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The direct circulation around this jet enhances the fronto-genetic forcing over the area and intensifies the 850mb southerly jet pulling in unseasonably high moisture. PWs increase to 1.4 to 1.5 inches which is above the daily climatology maximum. Another concern is that freezing heights are quite high which are also well above the daily climatology maximum. Layer above freezing will be greater than 10kft over much of the area helping to produce high rainfall rates. End result, another round of heavy rainfall over already saturated ground/high stream flows will set the stage for the potential of serious flash flooding concerns, especially over the Plateau, central-southern Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. Will highlight this concern in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Hydrologic Outlook. The persistent southwest flow continues through the end of the week with the potential of additional moderate to locally heavy rains for Thursday through Saturday. Overall, a very wet pattern with flooding concerns continuing. River flooding looks to be a major problem as well from mid to late next week, possibly into the next weekend.

Picked up 1.01" overnight, with a rise of 1.2' on the Tellico River. Currently at 3' (Flood stage is 9') some of the banks start topping a little sooner. One of the interesting things was how long it took to recede, continued rising 5 hrs after the rain stopped. Normally it takes a little less than an hour for the graph to begin falling, shows how much runoff is coming down the mountain.

Where the trailing 850 low goes, so does the waa and movement in snow ice. 12z NAM and GFS came in further north into TN compared to 06z. CMC pivoted to the coast further south over C AL.

College of Dupage site does a better job taking the sleet out of the accumulation maps. Here's the 12z FV3 Kuchera:

Lol at Goofy "Aw crap I was suppose to have a storm along the coast, here let me blowup this LP near Charleston"

To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it.

MRX disco for Monday evening: Per SPC discussion, there is a potential of long-lived tornado supercells with the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee placed in an enhanced potential of severe storms.

Had a possible tornado touchdown just south of Tellico Plains in Coker Creek area. 1 structure damaged alot of trees/power poles snapped. Currently 1048 FLEC customers out of power. No injuries.

lol...06z GFS increases totals across W NC and expands precip NW across E TN

Talked to my aunt a couple hours ago, she lives just west of Houston. Had heavy snow and lost power there.

I can loan you guys some of the cold air in exchange for some moisture. Hard watching moisture come up out of the gulf and be right on the edge here along the mountains in east TN lol.

Absolutely amazing here in Tellico Plains, SE TN. The 360 sunset with the lights from town and corona were breath taking.

I live in Tellico Plains just south of Sweetwater, it's a shame ppls greed that is on full display. I honestly hope no one park's in these spots. My neighbors have roped their yards off hoping to make a buck. My driveway is small, but there is no way with a clear conscious I could charge ppl to view this great event.

81 gets bad around Harrisonburg

A friend in Richmond said traffic is already horrible, took them 4hrs to go 5 miles...looks like the "Great Migration" has begun lol

That's one of the good things about Tellico Plains here in southeast TN...town is surrounded by ridges and downsloping tends to help as far as cloud cover. Models had cloud cover today but ended clear skies over town surrounded by clouds. Microclimates will play a big part here in the southeast

Lol...kinda like following models during winter....I'll take the 60hr Nam for the win

I'm located in Tellico Plains, SE TN, on the center line. A lot of people here think this is being over hyped. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.