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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    00z Euro
  2. TellicoWx
    Yeah def a weird run...closes it off and drives it south while taking its time at 500..meanders across the forum
  3. TellicoWx
    00z GEFs looks better than 18z
  4. TellicoWx
    00z CMC
  5. TellicoWx
    12z vs 00z 500...both still produce areas of 6+ across the forum..GFS keeps honking about something lol
  6. TellicoWx
    And somehow still manages to produce for middle and east TN..will give it this, no matter how much it changes the 500 up.. it still produces (so far). Don't trust anything outside 60-72 hrs on any Op tho.
  7. TellicoWx
    Down side: 18z GEFs lost most of it's big producers Upside: It's the 18z GEFs lol 18z OP dug the energy a little more, slowing the front..but also had the energy more consolidated with the northern LP.
  8. TellicoWx
    Just glancing at this, but would bet the EPS is alot more like the GFS than the OP run. Euro OP consolidated the energy over the lakes (bombing the LP there)..EPS mean looks to track the parent LP into SE Canada similar to the GFS...need that separation.
  9. TellicoWx
    12z 500 vort: GFS/CMC/UKMET
  10. TellicoWx
    UKie at 144 is similar to the CMC vs GFS...GFS is more progressive with the front and secondary low at that point..UKie just further SW with the secondary. LP over the lake is pulling the front thru, all models showing their bias at this range.
  11. TellicoWx
    Hard to tell on pivotal cause it is on snow depth, but 12z GEFs looks better than 00z...Have they loaded for you Holstons?
  12. TellicoWx
    If the Apps can slow the front down giving the energy enough time to develop along the tail, things could get really interesting or if the trailing energy phases somewhat. Just glad to see modeling agree somewhat at this range with anything from a lee side low to a more miller A ish development...those range scenarios have proven to perform in the past. Give me a chance with a strong arctic front with energy along the tail any day of the week lol
  13. TellicoWx
    Been a cold raw day here...temps started dropping around 11 this morning
  14. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR/3k NAM is kinda what I had playing out in my mind the other day. Global models usually tend to struggle when BL issues ars as close as it has been...meso models seem to be adjusting as we get closer..if rates are close to what's modeled, could def see a nice event west of the plateau...rooting for those guys.
  15. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR
  16. TellicoWx
    00z 3k NAM
  17. TellicoWx
    Yeah..made me laugh too...00z NAM made things interesting.
  18. TellicoWx
    18z GFS run pretty much sums up last several years of winters for TN...entire state is a snowhole lol
  19. TellicoWx
    Think we are starting to get somewhat of a solution...compromise between the progressive bias of the GFS and the overamping bias of the Euro (seems to have gotten worse since the upgrade, esp at mid range)...a weak southern slider, that has some boundary layer issues. Wouldn't be surprised to see the final solution be a 1-3" swath somewhere across the Mid south.
  20. TellicoWx
    GFS/Euro usually are at odds with each other but this is par for 2020 I guess lol...6z GFS=Noah's Ark across the Mid south/TN valley..0z Euro= Winter wonderland..polar opposites
  21. TellicoWx
    There was a study done on one of the old forums several years ago centered around Atlanta regarding what phases/amplitudes they scored sig winter weather in...surprisingly the COD produced more than any other amplitude. I believe you hit the nail on the head...to score we have to rely on a weak version of the SER (more so for the eastern side of the state. Over amplify in cold phases and the cold overbears the Gulf...reverse for the warm phases..torch city.
  22. TellicoWx
    Think our middle TN folks would call it winter complete with that 00z GFS run for the end of the week lol..
  23. TellicoWx
    MDT Flash Flood risk for Middle and East Tn:
  24. TellicoWx
    The concern among alot of mets (including MRX.. the reason they switched from an Areal Flood to Flash Flood Watch) is going up. The first wave has overpefomed even compared to the 06z Euro (Chatt is approaching 1.5"-2" of rain so far). The main show is what's building over MS and the Arklatex. From MRX AFD: For Tonight, this first wave will move east allowing for a lull in the rainfall but another round of jet dynamics along a quasi- stationary over the region for late tonight through Tuesday morning. Models show a regeneration of rainfall coverage and intensity into the flash flood watch area. Favorably high PWs and warm rain process to produce a period of moderate to heavy rains with this next band. There is a good deal of differences on placement and strength of the low-level jet. The NAM is the most aggressive showing strong low-level moisture transport into this boundary while the GFS is weaker. Main question is exactly where this boundary becomes more quasi- stationary. Current thinking is that this boundary will remain across the central/southern areas into the central/southern Tennessee Mountains. Training of moderate to heavy rain is a major concern for these areas as PWs and thermodyanmic profile for favorable warm rain process will be unseasonably high. Given low FFG (saturated ground) and high stream flows, flash flood potential is a major concern through Tuesday morning. Model QPF ensembles depict around 3 inches at CHA and RHP, and 2 inches at TYS through Tuesday. Due to the potential of high rainfall rates and already saturated soils/high stream flows, decided to change the flood watch to a flash flood watch. Several river warnings have been issued as well. 6z Euro:
  25. TellicoWx
    MRX has changed the Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Watch: The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia, including the following areas, in southwest North Carolina, Cherokee and Clay. In east Tennessee, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Monroe, Union, and West Polk. In southwest Virginia, Lee. * Through Tuesday evening * Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts expected. The heaviest rainfall will occur the rest of this afternoon and early evening across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina with another round Tuesday morning area-wide. * This amount of rainfall could cause flooding. People in the watch area should be aware of the possibility of heavy rainfall. Avoid low lying areas...and be careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses.
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