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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    River is beginning to near crest, about 1 1/2' below flood stage. Received 1.63" overnight, bringing total to 2.75".
  2. TellicoWx
    00z increased totals some:
  3. TellicoWx
    Just had a message from Polk Co swift water team, deployed 3 hrs ago for two people submerged in a creek..unfortunately 1 fatality.
  4. TellicoWx
    Picked up 0.11" so far today, and the gauge is already beginning to rise. There is zero water being soaked into the ground here, everything is going straight into the river. If we get anywhere close to 2003 level on the gauge, swift water teams will be deployed.
  5. TellicoWx
    SWS just issued for tonight from MRX: Heavy rain forecast for today and tonight... Showers leading to heavy rain across eastern Tennessee and SW North Carolina for Sunday and Sunday night. Up to an inch and a half is possible especially across the southern Tennessee valley and the Smokey Mountains with possibly heavier local amounts. Due to the saturation of the ground from previous rain events, most of the rainfall is expected to result in excessive runoff with some areas of localized flooding possible. Stream flooding, roadway flooding, ponding of low level areas and potential mud slides are all possible. Lesser amounts are expected for the central valley region and more northern areas of the forecast area, including the Cumberland plateau. Due to saturated soils and rainfall from the last 24 hours, some local flooding could occur in the northern areas of the forecast area as well.
  6. TellicoWx
    MRX AFD: Main flooding concern starts late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Strong upper jet becomes established over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys with strong upper divergence over the area from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The direct circulation around this jet enhances the fronto-genetic forcing over the area and intensifies the 850mb southerly jet pulling in unseasonably high moisture. PWs increase to 1.4 to 1.5 inches which is above the daily climatology maximum. Another concern is that freezing heights are quite high which are also well above the daily climatology maximum. Layer above freezing will be greater than 10kft over much of the area helping to produce high rainfall rates. End result, another round of heavy rainfall over already saturated ground/high stream flows will set the stage for the potential of serious flash flooding concerns, especially over the Plateau, central-southern Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. Will highlight this concern in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Hydrologic Outlook. The persistent southwest flow continues through the end of the week with the potential of additional moderate to locally heavy rains for Thursday through Saturday. Overall, a very wet pattern with flooding concerns continuing. River flooding looks to be a major problem as well from mid to late next week, possibly into the next weekend.
  7. TellicoWx
    Picked up 1.01" overnight, with a rise of 1.2' on the Tellico River. Currently at 3' (Flood stage is 9') some of the banks start topping a little sooner. One of the interesting things was how long it took to recede, continued rising 5 hrs after the rain stopped. Normally it takes a little less than an hour for the graph to begin falling, shows how much runoff is coming down the mountain.
  8. TellicoWx
    18z GFS run total: non stop wave after wave.
  9. TellicoWx
    18z GFS just doubled down..cant remember an event quite like what's being shown. Scary part, as some have said already, is modeling lately at this range is underperforming vs realtime.
  10. TellicoWx
    Different ensemble members across all models have had a similar solution as the GFS op run. Everything is on the table at this range...if the PNA cooperates even slightly, that outcome would not surprise me.
  11. TellicoWx
    We need the PNA to at least get to neutral or go positive between the 18 and the end of the month for one last window (excluding a freak storm). Everything else looks good for that timeframe.
  12. TellicoWx
    Yeah, the effects of the strat split are waning and we returned to the AN/wet regime of the prior warm state. PNA running mod neg for awhile, will help strengthen the SER. One thing I'm worried about is major flooding, PNA/SER combo is going to point a firehose at us or west TN one.
  13. TellicoWx
    The December QBO reading, plus how it is trending, coupled with the ENSO state has a good indication for a base value for the winter as a whole on US temp avg. With this December's QBO and ENSO state setup, only roughly 20% of the time produced a winter national avg of BN. If we had been in a La Nina with the same setup, that pct jumped to a more neutral state (50% of the time produced a BN avg). To me its why each Nino/Nina is a different animal, they react differently each time depending on the QBO combo. Once you have the base state as a nation, then a winter forecast can start adding in all the other indices based off that %. To override the warm state combo, we needed the other ones to be moderate values and working in unison (since weak values would only tend to get us to near normal with the QBO/ENSO combo). I completely agree with John, the Pacific is our driver, not just here but as a nation as a whole. My order of weight is QBO/ENSO, EPO, PNA, AO, MJO, NAO..from most weight to least (only caveat is the MJO, depends on amplification. Some data suggests its influence falls off if it in a low state closer to the COD and easier to overcome the warm phases). The whole setup is like a recipe, takes all the ingredients combined to get an outcome.
  14. TellicoWx
    There's a small window on the weeklies, but we need the PNA to look like the ensembles and nothing near with the control shows (if control is right, the cold that comes down will go west). Outside of that window, it's almost time to look toward severe season.
  15. TellicoWx
    Just my thoughts, but after looking at everything from back in to the beginning of winter and the current weeklies...im not too enthused about what's left of winter (think we need a lot of help). In December we had a nigative/rising QBO which made an argument for slightly AN temps, once you factor in it was occurring during a weak Nino, the odds increased of an AN winter (which we began that way with the late Dec/early Jan warmth. The start split was our saving grace, once the effects of it wear off (and no other splits in the future), we lose that influence. To offset the Dec rising neg QBO, we need the AO/NAO/EPO all three to go neg (1 or 2 of those neg won't work so well). Looking at the weeklies for all 3, while we have a weak neg AO/NAO, the EPO turns positive (at times mod +) starting mid month (sooner on the control). A good example is currently..AO dropping, NAO dropping, but EPO shooting back to neutral....even with historical cold just to the north, we go AN. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but I think we need a lot of help starting mid month for winter lovers (based off current modeled teleconnections).
  16. TellicoWx
    Amounts varied from what I have seen here..most got 1-1.5, a few spots closer to 2.5-3. Enough for some kids to use plastic sleds.
  17. TellicoWx
    Starting to think Carver is using his secondary low mojo from the other day on the models lol
  18. TellicoWx
    Kuchera for the ICON would be crazy. ICON is usually on the conservative side when compared to other models...def got me more interested
  19. TellicoWx
    Only possible fly in the ointment for early week is how quickly can the front get off the plateau...mid tn looks to be in a great spot.
  20. TellicoWx
    6z GFS looks good for entire state, suspect some mixing issues in east tn valley
  21. TellicoWx
    Yesterday at 12z:
  22. TellicoWx
    Euro is slowly shifting and clustering the low further south. Cluster has went from Buffalo to Dc in past 24 hrs, something to keep and eye on.
  23. TellicoWx
    12z CMC took the southern piece to the gulf, but was to far off the east coast with it, instead giving E. NC a decent snow.
  24. TellicoWx
    To go along with Carvers post about a if a southern piece of energy happened to make it into the gulf along the arctic front, the Euro has that piece but takes it across the upper south instead of the gulf (it's what lays down the snowfall along the front)...E3 on the GEFS shows what "could" happen if that piece somehow formed in the gulf along the front.
  25. TellicoWx
    The extreme cold coming to the east correlates well with the EPO crashing. -EPO can override a +AO, if you can get both to crash together then insane outputs are possible on modeling, setting up cross polar flow. Right now the cold on the modeling is way more believable going off the indices, than what was shown the other day.
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