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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Crossville EPS...has a sprinkling of everything from Miller As to Cutters
  2. TellicoWx
    Exactly, if PNA can't hold to assist the EPO, then its wasted Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  3. TellicoWx
    Yeah the teleconnections for that time frame has been interesting, think the OPs are starting to clue in. Even with a neutral/slight + AO..a crashed EPO can buckle the cold south...sprinkle in blocked pattern over the Atlantic to slow an system's and things should be interesting. Temps here normally lag the crashing EPO by a few days (unless the PNA doesn't cooperate). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  4. TellicoWx
    12z Euro has trouble written all over it with a 1043 parked over the NE in a region with 1° temps at the end. CAD would be impressive with that setup
  5. TellicoWx
    Flakes falling up on the Skyway at the TN/NC line
  6. TellicoWx
    The column soundings and UVVs have looked good up your way today from the ones I've seen..hope you bust high tonight.
  7. TellicoWx
    Upstream radar looking fairly healthy for you NW facing guys.
  8. TellicoWx
    Not surprised the OPs are flopping around so much..with such a large spread in all the teleconnections in LR modeling, hopefully we can start narrowing the spread soon. Right now I would just go with climo and enso as a base until it's sorted out some lol.
  9. TellicoWx
    I wouldn't be surprised if some of the NW flow areas over perform tonight...column is saturated thru 700 and with the ULL passing overhead, the UVV looks good. Decent vertical lift to go along with the orographic enhancement.
  10. TellicoWx
    You didn't happen to hijack the teleconnects on the LR EPS today did you lol? AO mean has been slowly stepping down the last 3 runs for Dec heading into Jan (now in the 0 to +0.5 range for monthly average). If the trend continues and we can get into the 0 to -0.5 range, there is 10 timeframes that fall into that area. Once you start eliminating the ones that don't closely resemble QBO, Nino 3.4...etc the list narrows to 3. Here's an overview on one of the 3...Nino 3.4 (.8), AO (-0.24), QBO (1.69), PNA (-.5), NAO (-1..outside the range, but models keep hinting at one), EPO (negative regime DJF)..and featured a SSW split.....Dec 1977. Thought it was funny 1977 was brought up, then when the teleconnections came in and was looking at different similar analogs, 1977 pops up (first time so far). I usually start with the AO mean (if don't have a cold source, rest dont amount to much), then comb thru every other indice and trend to narrow the list. Still on the fence for this winter, but the analog years have been getting better last few runs (was spitting out only torch years 2011, 2006, 1951 examples). Last couple runs have come up with some better ones like 1977...1986 was an interesting ones last run. Mainly cause it is remembered for the record cold, but up until Dec 20, 1986 TYS was actually AN temp wise...then the bottom completely fell out.
  11. TellicoWx
    The common analog on SARS the last several runs is 4/18/69. That system produced an F4 in Greenville, AL killing 2. A total of 13 tornadoes formed, mostly in the F0-F2 range. A 218 mi path was also recorded in southern GA and rated F2. Storm caused 50 injuries, besides the 2 deaths in the F4.
  12. TellicoWx
    Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some.
  13. TellicoWx
    By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co.
  14. TellicoWx
    Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail: Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg 351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky, including the following area, Whitley. * Through Tuesday afternoon * Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine. * If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.
  15. TellicoWx
    Almost time to breakout the purples again unfortunately...12z GEFS
  16. TellicoWx
    Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5"
  17. TellicoWx
    Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.
  18. TellicoWx
    Most of the bright returns over west TN is brightbanding. 3k was a little to slow and Euro a little too far south, but so far amounts in west TN are close to what GFS had. Big question is does the convection develop over central/southern AL robbing the moisture transport north.
  19. TellicoWx
    Picked up 1.14" so far here and still pouring
  20. TellicoWx
    Big jump N on the 18z NAM...hopefully on overcorrection
  21. TellicoWx
    Definitely need to keep an eye on the weekend system across SE TN...Euro/NAM/CMC 12z suite showing 3"-5" across NW GA. GFS has similar range further south over Atlanta.
  22. TellicoWx
    12z Euro
  23. TellicoWx
    Pic from Knox Mayor of a sinkhole just opened this morning in Powell
  24. TellicoWx
    Reports of a landslide on Northshore Dr in Knoxville now
  25. TellicoWx
    Don't believe snow is happening south of 40. Models have overplayed the reach of cold all winter, don't think this is any different. Region hopefully doesn't end up of the battle zone with stalled fronts. Much more of a NW shift on modeling and even the Cumberland region will be in the axis with these next waves.
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