TellicoWx

Wind has begun to pick up here as well...temp shot up to 50

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 200353Z - 200953Z Summary...An uptick in moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms overnight, with the potential for repeating rounds, will raise the risk of flash flooding across portions of the mid-MS, TN, and lower OH Valleys. Discussion...Deep mid/upper level trough over the Southwest US and +140 kt jet downstream has put the lower/mid MS, TN, and lower OH River Valleys well within the favorable right entrance region this evening. Southerly flow in the low levels is surging higher moisture northward, characterized by an increase in PWs, now ranging from 1.2 to 1.4" per latest TPW blends and RAP mesoanalysis. Regional radar imagery shows plenty of elevated showers and thunderstorms ongoing from the Arklatex region northeastward toward the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers with a noted cooling in the IR imagery cloud tops. This is supported by the RAP analysis of 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE as far north as the TN/KY border. Over the next several hours, the low level jet is expected to increase with 850 mb winds forecast between 50-70 kts by 07-08z. This should act to further surge the anomalously high PWs (2-3 SD above the mean) northward. Convection should continue to blossom over the region and with the expected storm motion (southwest to northeast) closely aligned with the mean flow, repeating rounds and training will be possible. Hi-res models indicate that through about 10z, a swath of 1-2" with local amounts near 3", will be possible from central/eastern AR, western TN, northern MS, and southwest KY. This region has been running very wet the last 14 days (300-400 percent of normal) so the additional rainfall combined with colder ground surfaces will lead to enhanced runoff and potential flash flooding.

00z GFS came in a lot drier between 12z Wed- 12z Thur for the E TN valley...still a big threat for the plateau and west.

MRX with a Flood Advisory for the entire CWA now

Flood Advisory for the southern 1/3 of the E TN valley now

Photo courtesy WPVFD...small section of the shoulder on Hwy 30 has slide off

Trying to get more info, but per West Polk FD...A section of westbound Hwy 30 in Polk Co is closed..either due to a slide or a section of the road collapsed.

Hwy 321 is closed again at the Kinzel Springs rockslide

Delta Flight from Milwaukee struck by lightning and made emergency landing at Chattanooga airport.

From GSP Twitter page, Newfound Gap. Can't help but wonder how this may actually increase the slide potential across the higher elevations once the warm are pushes thru and unthaws the ground.

18z NAM doubled the totals across SE TN thru Fri evening. Went from 1.5-2 to 3-4

Current conditions Ft Payne AL: Rain rate 1.13" hr..total 1.04" Nickel size hail reported and numerous lightning strikes...temp 39.2 Impressive dynamics.

TVA began flow reduction at the tributary dams here in East TN at noon today.

Just had a quick burst of moderate sleet here...cold not wanting to budge quickly.

Prob belongs in the other thread, but the 12z GEFS keeps the flow setup over the same region thru the run...ugly run for the flood threat areas. If we can't shut the Gulf down, this threat may extend well beyond current thinking. 12z GEFS (Complete run total):

12z GFS hangs the initial front across SE TN instead of pushing thru into N GA. Def something to watch.

Don't like how 00z suite has started..NAM quicker with onset, larger shield with WF, and less of a break. Rate of decent here is slowing over last couple hours and still near flood stage, need every hour we can get. As Carver mentioned earlier, will not take much of anything to top the banks again (let alone the 3+ the 3k is showing for this next event for near the state line.

Nearing 4 Trillion Gals forecast for TN. KY: 3.4 Tril, 6.47 Max, 4.84 Avg AL: 2.9 Tril, 6.57 Max, 3.21 Avg MS: 3.6 Tril, 6.56 Max, 4.27 Avg 7.3 Trillion just for OH/TN watershed.

WPC going 2-3" for midweek across SE TN...5-7" still thru weekend.

Each system has been like a stepping block. Definitely a rising "base". At 2000 cubic feet second we enter flood stage here.

18z GFS joins the other suites in the LR not shutting the Gulf down after this weekend.

It's lose/lose cause they had to open them here..i live right beside the Tellico River here in SE TN and we went into flood stage early this morning, if the tributary dams had not been pushing what they were, we would have had numerous water rescues. We are nearing 3" already, plus the modeled 6-7 thru this weekend and we will exceed the previous guidance from a few days ago. *bad part, as has been with everything modeled this winter on all models, is the bust factor (whether its pattern recognition, snowfall, or precip). Nearly every system has busted on the high side here this winter (except the snow one lol).

First one i posted was 240...i has all the systems

Totals thru the weekend system...Euro has 2 more systems next week. 1 Mon/Mon night (for southern areas), 2 Tues night/Wed region wide. Both have heavy rainfall.

EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.