Jump to content

TellicoWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,287

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    With the last system it handled the temp profile the best..showed the problems on the road for Chatt vs the other modeling.
  2. TellicoWx
    00z NAM with basically same track with the energy...stronger returns along the southern TN border vs 18z.
  3. TellicoWx
    Looking at the meteograms for the 18z Euro, while the qpf output went up, the surface temps in the eastern valley are a mess...35-40 during the duration of the precip.
  4. TellicoWx
    SREF..kind of like the ensemble of the NAM. Ran in between the NAM runs, usually a good indicator of where the next upcoming NAM run may go. Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) model is run as the NAM, thus, three names (NAM, WRF, or NMM) typically refer to the same model output. The WRF replaced the Eta model on June 13, 2006.[1] The model is run four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) out to 84 hours. It is currently run with 12 km horizontal resolution and with three-hour temporal resolution, providing finer detail than other operational forecast models. The NAM ensemble is known as the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and runs out 87 hours.
  5. TellicoWx
    Haven't got to look at the 18z Euro, but from Webbs reaction sounds good.
  6. TellicoWx
    18z GFS looks very similar as far as track with the 925 energy vs 18z NAM (just slightly weaker)...not quite buying the Chatt snowhole with that setup.
  7. TellicoWx
    18z NAM
  8. TellicoWx
    18z NAM slightly shifted the 925 track south (12z thru Montgomery AL...18z 30mi south of Montgomery) which shifted the heaviest totals south of 40. Good run and probably best track along southern TN border (not too far north to mess with temp profile, but still keep the better dynamics across TN. Also deepens the energy quicker as it transfers off the SE coast (great for NC folks and possibly NE TN if it can wrap the moisture over the mountains).
  9. TellicoWx
    The handling of the 925 energy is key...12z NAM has the piece slightly quicker and the furthest north on guidance (along central AL/MS line)..12z Euro is furthest south (along the central LA coastline). GFS is the middle ground, really dont won't that piece going any further north on the NAM..especially anyone south of 40. 12z NAM/Euro:
  10. TellicoWx
    NAM starts bringing th moisture across the southern TN border between the 6z and 9z (closer to 8z = 3am...12z is 7am). GFS is slower closer to 11z-12z (6-7am). Yeah it's a daytime event for TN.
  11. TellicoWx
    NAM trend (GFS definitely stepping toward it)
  12. TellicoWx
    Normally I would say the NAM is just out to lunch, but you can see in the upper air pattern how the globals are trying to follow it by not squishing the energy. So it adds more weight to what the NAM is showing than usual. GFS trend:
  13. TellicoWx
    Sounding on the 12z NAM is razor thin at the surface for areas south of 40, around 34-35 at the surface. Any more ticks N or stronger with the 850 and it will become an issue possibly.
  14. TellicoWx
  15. TellicoWx
    Incoming Namming on the 12z lol
  16. TellicoWx
    Anyone else notice the flow seems to be slowing across all models with each run, allowing the surface low to slowly be trending westward? If it keeps backing up, it may get interesting for the Eastern Valley. Last 12 runs of the GFS (NAM, ICON..etc also showing the same trend). Or could have been staring at models for too long lol.
  17. TellicoWx
    For those who may be looking for a positive trend to the GFS, take a look at the soundings over each run for the past 24-36 hrs..it has dwindled away the dry layer each run (good sign if you are looking for overrunning). Known bias during the 3 - 7 day window, GFS normally runs too cold (pushes the cold too far south, too quickly)...Euro during that same window has a tendency to hold the energy too far back (Carvers excellent point over the last day or so). These bias tend to typically be what leads to the NW trend with systems as the events get closer in time, even though they are the results of different corrections (GFS corrects its push, while Euro ejects quicker)....until they start coming into agreement within 48-72 hrs. Each system/scenario is different, but hopefully this is what is occurring now (bias/correction phase). Change in soundings on GFS over the past 24 hrs over the southern valley...
  18. TellicoWx
    Overall I think there is fairly decent enough signals for some type of overrunning event in the Mid South. If a LP happens to pop on any piece of energy that ejects out ahead of the main piece...then it's a whole different ballgame.
  19. TellicoWx
    Couple things I noticed on the 12z suites..the GFS has stronger ridging over the Gulf (which may be acting as a block for the SW ejecting out). On the water vapor you can also see how the GFS is pressing the HP far enough south (when combined with the stronger Gulf ridging) essentially shuts off any return flow and the Pac Jet. The Euro allows the Pac to also gain some moisture off the Gulf and ejects pieces of energy out ahead of the main SW, similar to what Holston was talking about with the previous setups over the last couple weeks.
  20. TellicoWx
    GEFS isn't quite buying what the OP has as well...at this range everything looks decent.
  21. TellicoWx
    Just depends on which is correct with the HP placement...GFS placement would suppress anything toward the gulf..12z Euro looks alot better than GFS so far
  22. TellicoWx
    Just looked at the EPS...give me 28 and I will call it even for the past 5 winters with Mother Nature lol.
  23. TellicoWx
    MDT Flash Flood risk for Middle and East Tn:
  24. TellicoWx
    The concern among alot of mets (including MRX.. the reason they switched from an Areal Flood to Flash Flood Watch) is going up. The first wave has overpefomed even compared to the 06z Euro (Chatt is approaching 1.5"-2" of rain so far). The main show is what's building over MS and the Arklatex. From MRX AFD: For Tonight, this first wave will move east allowing for a lull in the rainfall but another round of jet dynamics along a quasi- stationary over the region for late tonight through Tuesday morning. Models show a regeneration of rainfall coverage and intensity into the flash flood watch area. Favorably high PWs and warm rain process to produce a period of moderate to heavy rains with this next band. There is a good deal of differences on placement and strength of the low-level jet. The NAM is the most aggressive showing strong low-level moisture transport into this boundary while the GFS is weaker. Main question is exactly where this boundary becomes more quasi- stationary. Current thinking is that this boundary will remain across the central/southern areas into the central/southern Tennessee Mountains. Training of moderate to heavy rain is a major concern for these areas as PWs and thermodyanmic profile for favorable warm rain process will be unseasonably high. Given low FFG (saturated ground) and high stream flows, flash flood potential is a major concern through Tuesday morning. Model QPF ensembles depict around 3 inches at CHA and RHP, and 2 inches at TYS through Tuesday. Due to the potential of high rainfall rates and already saturated soils/high stream flows, decided to change the flood watch to a flash flood watch. Several river warnings have been issued as well. 6z Euro:
  25. TellicoWx
    MRX has changed the Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Watch: The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia, including the following areas, in southwest North Carolina, Cherokee and Clay. In east Tennessee, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Monroe, Union, and West Polk. In southwest Virginia, Lee. * Through Tuesday evening * Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts expected. The heaviest rainfall will occur the rest of this afternoon and early evening across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina with another round Tuesday morning area-wide. * This amount of rainfall could cause flooding. People in the watch area should be aware of the possibility of heavy rainfall. Avoid low lying areas...and be careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses.
×
×
  • Create New...