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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    New MCD out for southern valley: Discussion...Moisture is streaming in from the west-southwest within an atmospheric river moving into the region. Precipitable water values are currently 0.8-1.3". Inflow at 850 hPa is west-southwest at 30-50 knots per nearby VAD wind profiles, similar in direction and magnitude to the 850-400 hPa mean wind. MU CAPE remains under 100 J/kg for much of the area, though trends are upward across northern AL. Recent observations show hourly rain totals of 0.15-0.30", roughly 1/5 of the current precipitable water value, due to the lack of instability. With time, hourly rain totals are expected to rise to 0.5-1" as MU CAPE rises to 500+ J/kg across northeast AL and northern GA and convective elements become more common within the mostly stratiform rain areas. Mesoscale guidance generally advertises local amounts ~2", but 3" can't be ruled out during the next several hours. Two week precipitation anomalies are 150-300%+ of average, which has led to fairly saturated soils. Flash flooding is considered possible through 8 pm EDT.
  2. TellicoWx
    High Risk has been extended into NW GA
  3. TellicoWx
    Big question mark to me for today is around storm motion and orientation return flow. If the motion/return sets up more oriented ENE across N. AL then the results will be lowered (storms firing/training south of the area cutting off some of the flow from the gulf, plus a downslope component off the plateau)...HRRR/GFS. If it is orientated more NNE across N. AL, then the return up the southern valley will be greater and minimal downsloping (Euro Op/NAM).
  4. TellicoWx
    Comparing the NAM, 3k, GFS, HRRR, Euro..with what has currently fallen here (.13). The Euro was the only one to have the rainfall into SE Monroe at this point.
  5. TellicoWx
    High Risk out now to almost Chatt...WPC says there is still some uncertainty as to where to put the High Risk, could be moved north or south in further updates. For SE TN: Further downstream we have a Moderate risk across portions of northern GA into southeast TN and the far western Carolinas. Significant flooding is still possible here today/tonight. Slightly lower QPF and the expectation of weaker rates this far northeast, precludes the need for a High risk here. However, a Moderate Risk does cover these areas, which is still a significant and potentially life threatening risk level.
  6. TellicoWx
    This is definitely a repeating pattern I wouldn't wanna see (last week), just from a rainfall stand point. But, unfortunately, I think you may end up correct.
  7. TellicoWx
    SPC Day 4:
  8. TellicoWx
    Not surprising, a Flood Watch has been posted for south of I40. With area streams currently stressed (Tellico River is still running 200% above normal and is barely falling now) plus the snowpack up along the mountaintops that will melt and add to the totals, if any members (or family/friends) live in a flood prone area/ or potential to be cutoff by flooding across southeast TN...would be putting together some form of evacuation plan now. Add in SPC now has a 30% Day 4 severe near Chatt, looks like its gonna be a rough weather week.
  9. TellicoWx
    4z HRRR slightly shifted the precip NNW..wave entering MS now
  10. TellicoWx
    Really hope the GFS is off its rocker for this upcoming week. It really wants to point the firehouse at the southern valley. Combine the 4"-5" being shown on the 0z op with the melting snowpack on the mountain peaks..the foothills and areas along creek/river banks would possibly be in trouble. Add in the drastic back and forth temp swings (freezing the saturated soil, then quickly thawing it on top of the rainfall) and mudslides are going to start being an issue as well.
  11. TellicoWx
    Think you are in a good spot..with the way the last few winters have been 1" to 2" would be a big win sadly. With the corridor of lift being so narrow..any slight shift could make a big difference either direction. Not sold that any model currently has it right.
  12. TellicoWx
    WWA out for the southern valley: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 941 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 TNZ081>086-098>101-081100- /O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.200208T1000Z-200208T1800Z/ Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion- Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk- Including the cities of Cagle, Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak, Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, Dayton, Evensville, Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City, Big Spring, Athens, Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater, Madisonville, Bullet Creek, South Pittsburg, Haletown (Guild), Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell, Powells Crossroads, Monteagle, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, Conasauga, Archville, Benton, Parksville, and Reliance 941 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 /841 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected possibly mixed with sleet or rain at times. Total snow accumulations of 1/2 to one inch but up to 2 inches across the higher elevations. Snowfall mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. * WHERE...Southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee. * WHEN...From 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...Slippery road conditions are possible across the higher elevations and elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses.
  13. TellicoWx
    I would gladly cut it to a 1/10 at this point lol. Yeah it seems like it's been a bad stretch here in SE TN for awhile now. I think cutting the earlier snow totals fits well with all the combined model guidance, but mainly because the best FGEN forcing and lift passes too far south. Best outcome would be around an inch for McMinn/Monroe, with the border counties along TN/GA closer to 2".
  14. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR looking better in its run so far * vs the previous couple runs...still not as good as the 18z
  15. TellicoWx
    Moisture aloft is building back over N MS currently..not sure if its reaching the ground.
  16. TellicoWx
    Sounding from the ARW2 would support 10:1 even at the lowest elevations..problem with it is probably way over juiced. Sounding for 9am Sat morning over the southern valley.
  17. TellicoWx
    Looks like the ARW2..the accumulation on it starts just after daybreak Saturday morning. It will be moved out by tomorrow night.
  18. TellicoWx
    Not what you wanna see right now after the last day or so...18z GFS
  19. TellicoWx
    As for the long range...18z GFS is a nightmare for flooding for the Eastern valley.
  20. TellicoWx
    Good example of sun angle was today here...areas below 950' still has a light dusting in shade spots, areas above 950' have between 1" to 3" on the ground. Difference was the thermal layer, above 950' hovered between 32/33, while below was closer to 34/35. Sun angle had little to no effect where the thermal was closer to freezing between snow showers. Also, looks like the Skyway got hammered today. Crazy considering the Tellico River had close to a top 5 crest yesterday and a few mudslides.
  21. TellicoWx
    Yeah that was the laughable part, plus the switch over. Not saying it's not possible, but thos soundings looked fairly decent for temps to hang around 32-33 and dont see any warm nose.
  22. TellicoWx
    Only argument I can come up with of the top of my head for sun angle in the first half of Feb would be if the precip shield is more broken..in between bands if the thermal profile is borderline, then it could add just enough heat to the asphalt to cause melt. Shady areas would still stay covered for the most part. Which is what i believe they were alluding too...if models continue to show the snow, i could see them adding some accumulation but mainly on grassy surfaces in the wording. Also, this disturbance is just started appearing on short range models again. So, they are probably wanting to see if they continue the trend or if it was just a blip. Another thing is most AFDs are written close to when the 12z suite is finishing up, so the data from this morning wasn't as good for snow lovers.
  23. TellicoWx
    Honestly that whole Discussion was laughable at best...lol
  24. TellicoWx
    I wonder if all the ground moisture still around could also squeeze a little mor moisture in the very lowest levels from the evaporation taking place.
  25. TellicoWx
    Suprising, looking at all the thermals...temps are right at or below 32
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