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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    The trail energy behind the front is key..NAM is stronger and further west of the main front, while GFS is weaker and more over central TN to the plateau. Trail energy catches the front along the smokies, not providing very much lift for the eastern valley..becoming more orographic dependent for lift. Which is correct is the biggest question. I think you're in a good spot (unless modeling starts loosing the trail energy) as far as lift. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  2. TellicoWx
    Close up of the 18z Euro
  3. TellicoWx
    Trend continued over all the 12z/18z models of strengthening on the trailing energy, including the NAM. CMC generated a low, but lost the connection to the front (if strengthening can continue with a weak low reflection riding up the front...could be looking at a real big dog for plateau west). For central/southern valley of east tn (south 40), still need quite a bit of changes in the energy.
  4. TellicoWx
    12z Euro Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  5. TellicoWx
    What little I have been able to see...looks like GFS was a tad stronger wave on 12z. Anyone able to post a vs for the euro (12z vs 0z). NAM still strongest looking...but good to see if others are slowly trending that way. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  6. TellicoWx
    12z NAM goes a little stronger with the wave...nice run for Middle/Western TN...and north 40 in East
  7. TellicoWx
    And why the CMC isn't very good at mid range...lots of run to run variance Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  8. TellicoWx
    Keep an eye on the ridging out ahead of the front (models keep trending stronger each run)...causes the NW trend. Similar to the Nov event except favors Nashville west. Unless modeling flips on the ridge breakdown, dont see this doing much east of the plateau, outside some token flakes. 3 day trend GFS: Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  9. TellicoWx
    0z GFS: low generated central gulf 0z Icon: off coast SE GA 0z CMC: off Mid Atlantic coast 0z NAM (la la land): looks to be headed toward generating toward western gulf 0z Navgem: western gulf Wide range of possibilities still on the table Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  10. TellicoWx
    On CMC there was ZR sounding for southern middle TN..HR102 on the column is all below freezing across E TN. Haven't checked GFS. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  11. TellicoWx
    Lol yeah, I'm just happy starting to get some consensus on the energy...next question is does it continue along the front like the CMC (generates a low of the east coast) or leaves it behind to form the gulf low like the GFS/Euro.
  12. TellicoWx
    00z GFS trended a little stronger with the energy trailing along the front into the gulf...CMC joining the GFS with a similar solution for the energy (instead of burying it into Mexico)
  13. TellicoWx
    At work right now, but I have all the data with Decembers, back to 1950, where the AO went 1.5 or higher for a monthly mean. Data was fairly interesting...Decembers where the EPO or PNA had favorable spikes (or combo of both)..we were able to remain near normal or very slightly above for the avg monthly mean temp at TYS. Decembers with a non favorable Pacific blowtorched big time. When you break it down to include ENSO, QBO, NAO etc..NAO state had widely ranging effects (same with QBO). So NAO and QBO I give little weight to regardless of state...(now I do believe when the southern jet is active and the Pac is favorable or needs some minor assistance, then the NAO begins to gain more weight. Can't remember 14/15 off top of my head, but I believe it had periods where the EPO went -300 or higher plus it was at or near one of the most -QBOs ever recorded for DJF. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  14. TellicoWx
    Based off how the EPS has had a smaller variance with the teleconnections (especially the AO) compared to the GEFS being all over the place at longer ranges...I like the potential with that system (if the EPS can hold onto the sharp decline with the AO and a tad more Pacific ridging). Time it just right and the northern energy should dive into the southern system similar to what the 00z Euro attempted. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  15. TellicoWx
    Yeah has a couple members that do, especially on the plateau..overall step in the right direction. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  16. TellicoWx
    One thing that's concerning to me is the trend of the AO on the Euro (12z GFS stepped closer in line). The downturn isn't tanking to neutral/negative as it was the past few days. With the AO trending more positive, we would need a stronger EPO/PNA ridge or combo to push the cold south. Setup on the 12z Euro favors the ridging getting us close to normal instead of torching)...GFS still is decent for a wintery setup. Hopefully that trend stops and starts correcting back the other way. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  17. TellicoWx
    This to me draws my attention, the large spread on the teleconnections at mid range (Control can't even keep its self in the 5% range). The Control goes -AO/-EPO/+PNA/-NAO lol. That spread looks like a 46 day EPS. Makes me wonder if we are starting to see any effects of the minor SSWE come into play on the modeling. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  18. TellicoWx
    Lol, same...knew you did, was more for the newer members as a reference. There's a .1% chance of that OP verifying, until I saw the Chatt snowhole...now it's up to 50% lol jk. Would be Jeff's luck. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  19. TellicoWx
    Pivotal does a way better job with its algorithms
  20. TellicoWx
    Crossville EPS...has a sprinkling of everything from Miller As to Cutters
  21. TellicoWx
    Exactly, if PNA can't hold to assist the EPO, then its wasted Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  22. TellicoWx
    Yeah the teleconnections for that time frame has been interesting, think the OPs are starting to clue in. Even with a neutral/slight + AO..a crashed EPO can buckle the cold south...sprinkle in blocked pattern over the Atlantic to slow an system's and things should be interesting. Temps here normally lag the crashing EPO by a few days (unless the PNA doesn't cooperate). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  23. TellicoWx
    12z Euro has trouble written all over it with a 1043 parked over the NE in a region with 1° temps at the end. CAD would be impressive with that setup
  24. TellicoWx
    Flakes falling up on the Skyway at the TN/NC line
  25. TellicoWx
    The column soundings and UVVs have looked good up your way today from the ones I've seen..hope you bust high tonight.
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