TellicoWx

CAMs definitely didn't pick up what has moved thru so far too well (they have been focused on more toward sunset)

Will be interesting to see how much instability, plus the lift, can enhance these bands later this afternoon/evening

Had nice little band move thru

Depending on how the overnight runs go, I could see them doing an expansion in the morning. Setup is 2 separate features potentially (tonight's true NW flow, and tomorrow midday thru evening vort pass). Hrrr and 3k differ in exactly how far south into the valley the vort will pass. Add in some daytime instability and would not be surprised to see even the central valley floor over produce in streaks. Even the lower res models are subtly hinting at the potential.

Evolution of the weekend system has major impacts on anything showing the rest of the week. Until the weekend is nailed down, I'm taking everything past it with a grain of salt.

Gfs and CMC on 2 different planets with the evolution at 500. GFS opened 500 door wide open for a cutter...if it evolved that way, may get a quick front end (believe if anything would be quick change to some ice then rain). Would be rooting for the beginning of the week (CMC), than taking any chance with the end of the week.

Not sure I have ever seen a DGZ this large...from 975 all the way to 500 (sounding from Chatt area on CMC). I would imagine that would have the potential to produce even more snow than modeled...not sure exactly.

Not going to take much...if moisture can pull north this will be a very high ratio event.

12z Ukie maintains the storm..south of area.

Main thing to me is the models are sending up big red flags for something coming in the SE. High impact events (snow/severe/flooding etc..), the honking usually starts blaring within this range...OPs give you the potential...Ensembles give you the impact area generally.

0z GFS may be showing its bias at 500 vs the rest of the 0z models/12z Euro. Gfs is holding the trough up across the four corners...rest roll the trough east toward the gulf.

0z Ukie

Ukie has the storm/overriding...just a little farther south

Canadian...all gonna say is Kuchera lol

18z GFS close to popping something good for Eastern areas 1/19-20

18z GEFS mean with nice little bump...couple more members showing the Miller A/Apps Runner look

5.5" was my final total. Wonder if their data is going to be low due to measurements counting the ice compaction during the event. MRX:

Haven't looked much at this time frame yet, but just at quick glance....keep an eye on the gulf. That is a classic signature showing on all the models. Fronts that stall in the gulf at that angle are notorious for spinning a LP formation. What's showing now could be the beginning of the models sniffing that out. If you want a true old fashioned amped up Miller A or Apps Runner..that's setup is how you get it across the southeast.

Still have light to moderate at times snow falling. There is definitely an 1-1.5" solid crust layer sandwiched between fluff. Going to be a block of ice once it begins melting off. Picked up 5.5" with cleaning snow board periodically...best I could keep track of with the sleet and freezing rain period. Picked up another .25-.5 in last hour with this low level moisture. I left it on the board, and will count it in morning (wanna see how much extra this wrings out). Considering I was only showing an 1" on models due to being in downslope hole, big win here.

Prob picked up another 1.5 in last 45 to hour.

Glad you said something lol...went outside and it's pouring snow again. All the tire tracks in the road have filled back in, barely see them.

Forgot...for those who don't know what a DGZ is. It's where snowflakes are optimally made. The DGZ can move up and down in height...it's the section of the atmosphere....850, 700, 500..etc. where the air temp reaches -12 and exits -17 (chart just uses -10 to -20). Wherever that slice of the atmosphere is, then Rh/dewpoint determines the flake (100% RH is the curved water saturation line on the chart)

That's what I was afraid of myself.

This may help with how DGZ, saturation, and flake sizes work.