TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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As @John1122posted yesterday...Euro AI is wavering with this type event (just further out) on and off last few runs. Boot the low in the GL, turn of the STJ, and let climo let the chips fall lol
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Icon was trying to get there as well.
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It's picking up downsloping winds aiding the warm nose...could it pin the cold against the plateau..possibly, but it's rare...nose would have to be really weak.
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If there was a High sitting over the lakes then possibly. But a GL low aides any type of vort to draw just enough southerly flow in advance up the valley to wreck the lower thermals. You can overcome this after the vort passes, but need it to generate some type of lee side low close enough to us to pull down the cold and still close enough to assist with lift to switch the moist low/mid levels over before they naturally dry out. Despise GL lows worse than SER...more ways to overcome the latter.
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Need a reset...have to punt that pesky Great Lakes low. We have had too much northern stream dominance, hopefully the models are starting to catch on to the southern stream wake up in the medium range..just a wait and see if guess the way some of the modeling has been off lately.
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While I would love for the GFS Op to score the win..hard to believe anything it's spitting out when it's all alone vs all other models (even it's own AI)
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Yep...I got to excited early in week and forgot one of the biggest rules for south of 40. GL low = no Bueno 99% of the time (outside mtns/plateau), messes with thermals just enough ahead of any week vort spinning around it. So not really enthusiastic about weekend either.
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Mid week system...Lee side LPs are almost always a boom or bust situation with even short range models struggling with them. Most of our surprise snows on this side of the state have been caused by some sort of lee side...(some of the greatest busts have been too "lack of one forming"). I've always considered them coinflips that we just dont have the physics engine yet to simulate (they are more or less induced by the microclimates of the Apps spine).
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Looks like euro tried to step toward GFS...just a little too far north with the lee side
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Another small step for the 0z GEFS mean
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When you starting seeing a 1" mean that reaches down into central AL/MS at this range, something is lurking for someone in the distance usually.
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Welcome...right now I wouldn't say there is a definitive system #2 (system #1 will play a role in the evolution first). The signs so to speak are pointing toward something in the distance, could go poof or could go all in....way too early to say either way.
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18z GEFS looking better on the mean with the evolution of the overrunning signal for 2nd system
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18z GEFS increased the mean some for the 1st event across the eastern valley
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Weak SLP with the STJ overunning the front...been back and forth with overunning and popping a miller. Either way atleast it's not losing it.
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Definitely first test for our area with the AIFS OP...interesting it has been slowly increasing the totals across the eastern valley for the last several runs.
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Lee side low precursor is definitely there on modeling...whether it happens or not won't come into focus until the short range has a grasp imo. Would be a scenario where totals increase from west to east across the greater eastern valley.
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18z Goofy would be wild to see (highly improbable)....stalled arctic front with an STJ continuously overriding it...never ending snow showers lol.
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
TellicoWx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thought same thing but sometimes modeling will show nothing if the precipitation is virga -
Noticed that on radar...presume it's virga or short range models slightly off to the north on precipitation maps.
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CAMs definitely didn't pick up what has moved thru so far too well (they have been focused on more toward sunset)
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Will be interesting to see how much instability, plus the lift, can enhance these bands later this afternoon/evening
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Had nice little band move thru
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Fall/Winter 2025-26 WX Discussion Thread
TellicoWx replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Depending on how the overnight runs go, I could see them doing an expansion in the morning. Setup is 2 separate features potentially (tonight's true NW flow, and tomorrow midday thru evening vort pass). Hrrr and 3k differ in exactly how far south into the valley the vort will pass. Add in some daytime instability and would not be surprised to see even the central valley floor over produce in streaks. Even the lower res models are subtly hinting at the potential. -
Evolution of the weekend system has major impacts on anything showing the rest of the week. Until the weekend is nailed down, I'm taking everything past it with a grain of salt.
