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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    This is a sounding from south of 40 on the low res NAM...it shows the DGZ fully saturated. But for some reason the lift disappears only in the DGZ (mountains alone would create some lift.) So to me there is an error either in the Sharpy or algorithm. Problem is that model is ingested into the NBM = faulty NBM. Since it seems most offices now solely rely on the NBM...
  2. TellicoWx
    Be careful with the low res NAM (or any model) that has this sounding but spits out nothing.
  3. TellicoWx
    Not gonna lie..having flashbacks to an ULL that looked good here but last minute parked its self over upstate SC..got zilch here. Can't remember year tho.
  4. TellicoWx
    Heard that from quite a few people today lol
  5. TellicoWx
    While its good for overall indicator..until HiRes gets close enough, the resolution is just too low on the globals (similar to the ice setups).
  6. TellicoWx
    I'm watching the RGEM close moving forward...if history is to be belived, it usually handles things better than most with these type setups imo.
  7. TellicoWx
    That's close to what I think the AIFS would have looked like (maybe just a tad less) if it had a Kuchera setting.
  8. TellicoWx
    Saw one of mets say NBM increased but not sure, havent looked. That's what MRX is gonna ride.
  9. TellicoWx
    Very slight bump up in the 18z AIFS...I would honestly take that here and call it a day on this storm.
  10. TellicoWx
    Alot of folks thought that...will never forget riding in National Guard tracked APC's to the state line the next day to rescue hikers. Was no road, driver had to be guided by spotter looking out the roof hatch.
  11. TellicoWx
    6z AIFS increased totals a little more. If a Lee side does pop and way thermal profile is....this will escalate quickly.
  12. TellicoWx
    Possibly a resolution issue
  13. TellicoWx
    May finally end the string of bad luck..problem is due to the last system not evolving the way it did, I dont think people will take the next one that seriously
  14. TellicoWx
    I'll cash out now please lol
  15. TellicoWx
    Think that would be west of the 18z GFS...not sure...just by a little
  16. TellicoWx
    Ratio that would be amazing
  17. TellicoWx
    Carolina folks broke the server lol
  18. TellicoWx
    Fujiwara
  19. TellicoWx
    If all the big globals can hold thru 6z I may start to fully believe (old post-truncation disorder still alive and well)
  20. TellicoWx
    You must work for Walmart management lol
  21. TellicoWx
    That's fairly significant shift on AIFs...little extra moisture gonna go a long way. Looks like a solid 3-6+ event on it imo
  22. TellicoWx
    This setup is like a clipper system..except instead of running up the gut Johnny Majors style clipper track...its track is more of a Philly Special lol
  23. TellicoWx
    Definitely 100% northern vort dependent (which I believe only the HiRes will sort out at the very end). Coastal placement is gonna have very little impact imo.
  24. TellicoWx
    Not saying its locked in..but would not shock me if some HiRes spits out big numbers...extreme cold at 850, saturated 850s, plus their fine resolution = a model like the NAM hitting the Powerball for ingredients lol (whether its right or wrong who knows 100% yet)
  25. TellicoWx
    I expect there to be some true old school nammings as we get closer lol
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