TellicoWx

6z RGEM joins the HRRR

Looks like the NAM got the boot from NWS offices

Hun: 2-5....OHX 3-6

MRX entire CWA warning...3-6, except Polk and Bledsoe 2-4 Edit...Hamilton 2-4 (some reason has its own message)

MRX, OHX, HUN pull trigger..Warnings out

FFC: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 314 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 GAZ001>003-142000- /O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0001.240115T1200Z-240116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.240115T1200Z-240116T1200Z/ Dade-Walker-Catoosa- 314 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Dade, Walker and Catoosa Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warnings about to roll out..FFC issued for NW corner of GA

6z HRRR..and still has quite finished up and end of the run

Pops a Lee Side Low that enhances the precip

6z HRRR smoking the valley/foothills

MEG updated theirs with the warning...still waiting on MRX and OHX

Don't know what the met of wvlt is watching but lmao

It's a lie...anything that has me in or near bullseye is false lol

Same streak on 0z HRRR..south side is down near MS border...hence plays out with a more southern solution

As the NAM plays out, it takes the jet more to the half moon look in KY...hence the valley doesn't end up like the other modeling.

You wanna be near and just to the south side of the yellow basically

18z vs 00z NAM 700mb wind (jet streak)

A second streak should enter from the south...NAM has been taking it due north almost...everyone else brings it up in a NE direction...that makes or breaks the eastern valley

Where that streak enters out of AR...whether KY or MS border tells the rest of the run

Thank you to whoever posted the retired Met twitter post earlier...it unlocked the key. The driver of this system is a 700 jet streak...NAM was up in middle KY, everyone else Middle TN...NAM took a half step that direction. You wanna be on the right side entrance of that jet (basically south side of it)

Took a half step toward the rest modeling world..see where it goes.

Next frame should tell which way NAM is headed..already slight improvement at 700 over 18z

By the looks of that graphic it will be soon..50% of 4+ should meet their criteria

HRRR looking more like the Icon vs NAM so far at 700..see where she goes

0z suite rolling...good luck everyone