TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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This has quickly went from historic to typical Miller B type climo. for mby. Guess adding AI is kinda like polishing a turd. Really think they need to go back to the old truncated system, or have a physics based grid that's designed by someone who didn't get their degree from a cracker jack box lol.
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Yep...hardly any snow here...ice to rain..backend snow.
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If that was the final solution...then I would 100% support end all govt funding for weather models lol
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??? Can someone explain this 850 temp map. Yes later hours would blast 850s to death. But I have checked out on the GEM when I saw this.
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GFS more in line with path 850 took on the Euro. Heavy snow with the initial overrunning changing to sleet/zr would make sense with typical 850 pass to NW for southern valley
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Thing could show 12" of snow right over the top of me and would say same thing.."it's bias is toward a trash can". outside 24-36 hrs. Physics engine is so fine tuned to micros, that outside that window..chaos theory has consumed it lol.
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Think we are still a ways from the final solution...trend loop the 850 and you can see how it has bounced 50-100 miles one way or the other. That small change changes the angle degree up the valley. Due to its shape a 10°-20° change can be the difference between a nose attempting to ram into the Apps (lessens how far it blasts north) or runs it parallel (allows it to free run to 40/KY line). Phasing changes the 850 wind speed (the turbo charger for the nose). The combo of those two will make it seem like the system "jumped" all of a sudden run to run...jmo. Edit...wind angle degree
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18z AIFs vs 18z AiGFS...850 lp placement over northern KY. But notice strength and wind direction...that's our cone of uncertainty so to speak.
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Small changes with the 850 from run to run model to model is what is leading to significant changes in the p-type.
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850 has been showing..18z AI GFS has it not far off from 18z Euro at KY/OH border. Difference is the strength and wind direction from the gulf between the two.
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This is what has me the most worried...major power failure across the south and then this behind it. Wind chill values 18z GFS.
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Didn't think would ever see 6z again...boy was i wrong. Now imagine if NAM got ahold of that a did it's namming lol
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AI GFS would bury the state just looking at 850s and surface temps
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18z ICON
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Correction..way better 18z as far as less ice
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Icon with a small step south at 18z..overrunning precipitation shield was better as well
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First Namming for us of the event (Fri morning) lol...good ol NAM
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And it begins..WSW up now TX, AR, LA
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When you view it as 2 separate systems..1) overunning snow looks almost locked..amounts will vary. 2) the second piece, is at the time frame where models have some divergence in evolution (old saying " we're at x hr where models lose it, to bring it back as we get closer". Where ever those 2 overlap is going to be in for a potentially historic ride.
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Has second piece trapped..cant kick so it keeps slinging moisture along the boundary
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This is almost like 2 events in one....overrunning, meeting MillerA or A/B hybrid. If they link just right, you get the 6z GFS extreme
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GFS *forgot to hit TN...let me fix that"
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Both AI models now have a very short window of mixing issues (if any).
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Big test for it
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Tells me south of 40 Op is out to lunch...as much as the Op was fun to watch, we may have seen the peak in it if the amped solution is where we are headed.
