TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Keep thinking back to the Birmingham Snowmaggedon (one where Span had to walk to work cause he forecasted no problems and 1/2" of snow or so brought Birmingham to a standstill) -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wouldn't be surprised SREF looked a tad better when I did a quick glance. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Agree..honestly don't think any modeling had a handle on this thing good or bad (based off what's currently going on out west and the bad misses out that way). With the system being so anomalous, don't think the coding is equipped for it. Ex. how often do we see the DGZ sitting on the ground in this region? -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
According to NWS Boulder, the interstate almost instantly froze over...most areas reporting 1"-2". If CODOT can't handle an inch or two, doesn't bode well for TDOT (assuming models are close to correct on plateau/west). -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Considering the front range of the Rockies is prone to wild temp swings...this is remarkable. Fastest 1 HR temp drop ever recorded at Denver International. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wild videos being posted of this fropa going thru Denver...people reporting what appeared to be a frozen haboob (sky cams back up the reports). 30-40° temp drops in 30 mins. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Areas affected...southern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northern Colorado Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 212115Z - 220015Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls will persist into the evening across portions of the central Rockies and central High Plains. DISCUSSION...A very strong arctic front continues to move south across the central High Plains with temperature gradients of 40-50F along the front. Several bands of snow have developed near the vicinity of this front with moderate to heavy snow being observed. In addition, winds are very strong with 30-40 knot winds both north and south of the front with observed gusts in excess of 50 knots. These winds, combined with multiple bands of snow have led to snow squall conditions across much of Wyoming and southwest South Dakota this afternoon. These conditions continue to shift south with the surface front. Observed visibility restrictions have been greatest north of the front, likely due to drier snow amid temperatures in the -10 to -20F range and 30+ kt sustained winds. In fact, blizzard conditions have been observed at 8 ASOS/AWOS sites across Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska in the past 2 hours. Expect similar conditions to spread into northern Colorado this evening. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
A little nowcasting out west vs modeled....Globals are underperforming vs meso models for North Nebraska. Currently snow squall warning (GFS had 1/2"). Reality... -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX upgrades entire area to Windchill Warning: WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 10 to 20 below zero lower elevations, and as low as 25 to 35 below zero at the higher elevations. * WHERE...Southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts Thursday night through Friday are expected to be between 30 and 50 mph. Winds this strong may result in downed trees and power lines, which may cause power outages while temperatures are extremely cold. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Also have to take into account the downsloping off the plateau. For east Tennessee area, the only places i look to have anything of possible significance is the plateau and east of Hwy 411 toward the foothills/mountains. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Kentucky Gov. advising people to get to where they are going by Thurs afternoon and plan to stay there until Mon possibly. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
State of Emergencys going up in KY and NC..expect others will follow suit in the south -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is more worrisome to me than any of the snow. When MRX talks about historic, this is what they are referring to imo. Yeah it gets below zero plenty times in the past several years, but that's with snow pack and radiational cooling on light winds. Not so common to go below zero plus 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
3k looks 100x better west of the plateau -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
For a sliver of hope...GEFS mean actually had a nice little increase for the eastern valley -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
CMC at 12z vz 00z....feel like the announcer off movie Major League..."juuussst a bit outside" lol. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
One more step back on the models and all TN will be out of play (except the normal NWSF areas of plateau/mtns). GFS cave to the Euro/CMC almost complete. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
GFS = Grinch Fools Snowlovers lol -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Brutal..windchills on Christmas Eve morning -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Seen it happen before..feeling the effects of the Hudson low (path of least resistance) -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah if the 18z is remotely in the ballpark..mountains will get hammered. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
That's been stuck in my head all day..Hybrid Miller B. Just enough weakness to lift north...then transfer to the se coast (if the models are under doing the interaction between the two highs..basically more of a banana high) -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
I wouldnt quite right off the valley...especially central/northern areas. Going to depend on how quickly that front can plow off the plateau and how much moisture transport makes it over from the lakes. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
TellicoWx replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, believe those guys are setup good for this system...plus the upslope areas of the plateau/mtns/ne tn. Not quite buying the wound up, cold front passage of the Euro. Between this arctic airmass squeezing out every drop of moisture/ the feed off the lakes..middle/ west TN is the money spot.