TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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Crazy how the second system almost tracks the same on all 18z runs so far
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AIFs is on the northern end, GFS on southern end...as @Carvers Gapsaid earlier today, the cone is shrinking each passing run
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Pivotal is 10:1 and has that output...would expect closer to 15:1
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Definitely took another step south...the ice totals south of 40 would be crazy if there was a map for it
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You drew that with Chat Gpt didn't you lol..jk. Does that incorporate sleet?
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Holy EC lol...just glanced at AIFs total snow run...jeez
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Looks awfully like the other ice hits...freeze line to east of TN/NC border is lights off for the valley unless LP is super amped
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Strengthening LP tracks up toward Charlotte, placing us on the NW quad and 850s crashing on the west side of the Apps.
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Place it in the middle and end up with close to the I85
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If Euro AI steps in line with rest..Wonder if final outcome could wind up an I85 special
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Has too..850s are too wrecked to thump that before changeover
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Ukie...thunder ice anyone...valley is sitting right at 33
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Ukie is strong enough with LP to save the valley..but that would destroy plateau/west
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If you dont mind..curious which side it went on
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Extrapolate out and would have been a close call whether it went east vs west of apps with the warm nose
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The lighter ICON is worse to me..lighter precipitation plus colder surface...easier for to accumulate on powerlines.
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See 12z for MBY went about way would expect lol...ice. Scary part is the GFS AI corrected course until it cropped out on pivotal. Last frame matches CMC pretty close
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Gonna wait on 12z run (possibly 18z)...but right now I wouldn't put 0% chance for MBY for snow, but it ain't much higher. Leaning toward flip a coin ice or cold rain here. Dont like the subtle changes in the Euro Op..baby stepping toward the AIFs.
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As @Scottie16said...last thing our county needs. Lately if a squirrel farts wrong, Flec seems to lose transmission lol.
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With surface temps area wide in the 20s..that lights out recipe south of 40
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Euro OP ever so slightly tried to nose the LP up the spine of the Apps vs 12z, which allowed the 850s to surge up.
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The evolution of the HP is key. The GFS/GEM/Icon...the HP is anchored in the Midwest over the top of everything. The AIFS develops a banana HP, which is not exactly what you want in this scenario. A) it allows for a stronger LP to develop and Banana HP is one of the ingredients needed for Miller B's and Miller A/B Hybrids. If you want a true Miller A or overrunning event in the upper south an anchored HP is what you want not a banana.
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If you go to the next frame and then compare to non AI, you will see why it attacks that way
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Both AI systems have the HP weakening and sliding off to the east way before the non AI mods...a low will attack the western side of the Apps in that situation
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Carbon copy of 18z almost
