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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    You wanna be near and just to the south side of the yellow basically
  2. TellicoWx
    18z vs 00z NAM 700mb wind (jet streak)
  3. TellicoWx
    A second streak should enter from the south...NAM has been taking it due north almost...everyone else brings it up in a NE direction...that makes or breaks the eastern valley
  4. TellicoWx
    Where that streak enters out of AR...whether KY or MS border tells the rest of the run
  5. TellicoWx
    Thank you to whoever posted the retired Met twitter post earlier...it unlocked the key. The driver of this system is a 700 jet streak...NAM was up in middle KY, everyone else Middle TN...NAM took a half step that direction. You wanna be on the right side entrance of that jet (basically south side of it)
  6. TellicoWx
    Took a half step toward the rest modeling world..see where it goes.
  7. TellicoWx
    Next frame should tell which way NAM is headed..already slight improvement at 700 over 18z
  8. TellicoWx
    By the looks of that graphic it will be soon..50% of 4+ should meet their criteria
  9. TellicoWx
    HRRR looking more like the Icon vs NAM so far at 700..see where she goes
  10. TellicoWx
    0z suite rolling...good luck everyone
  11. TellicoWx
    Give me that kind of lift on the 18z RGEM and this type setup...and let the dice roll
  12. TellicoWx
    The DGZ isn't based on height (granted you would have to be at the Arctic for the DGZ to near the surface). It's based on certain temperature zone (-10C to -20C) relative to the RH in that zone. Saturate that area and flakes form. Temp from there to surface determines PType.
  13. TellicoWx
    Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll.
  14. TellicoWx
    Resolution issue...Globals have a hard time picking up low level moisture as time goes out...kinda like how the precip shield will typically fill in on the NW side on a LP as the event gets closer.
  15. TellicoWx
    Not quite there yet, but chance (maybe). What's something else that has to get pushed out? The low level moisture that also banks up to the mountains. Sometimes it gets pinched and trapped, especially across NE TN and Central foothills. Lucky to pick that up on modeling 12-24 hrs out.
  16. TellicoWx
    No, just too many years of watching these models and listening to you guys/ some others who are no longer on the boards.
  17. TellicoWx
    Here's the 925 map from the RGEM..you can see from the wind barbs are banking up against the Smokies, and how the 0 line is SW VA is trying to wrap (filling) it's way around the highest points. Hope that helps for a visual.
  18. TellicoWx
    Watch nearly any cold front on PWS stations..1st night west of 75 will be colder...as warm advects back in, east will be colder. (As always there are certain exceptions to that rule, but this doesn't seem to be one)
  19. TellicoWx
    I wouldn't even call it warmer lol..small Zone of 33-34 temps between the 925-850 layer..dps are really low, so could be end up as virga until it saturates (which the wet bulb is 99.5% below freezing). Valley is like a tub..cold faucet needs turned on for a minute to push the warm out or saturate it long enough to turn cold.
  20. TellicoWx
    Looking at the RGEM soundings, the wind direction this doesn't appear to be a downsloping issue. More like what is seen on every front rolling off the plateau, it slowed the front just a smidge more. Doing so causes less time for the Arctic air to wash the warmer air out of the valley, as it gets pushed against the Smokies. It's like a quasi warm nose in a way...rates, speed, and several other factors can quickly erase this problem, but won't be ironed out until closer to the event.
  21. TellicoWx
    MEG: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday.
  22. TellicoWx
    MEG and JAN pull the trigger
  23. TellicoWx
    NOAA runs two supercomputer system...nicknamed "Dogwood" and "Cactus"...ones in Virginia, one in Arizona. Currently they are numerically driven...but their replacements are being worked on that will change them to machine learning based. If the Enso states are being over done one way or the other, then a programmer changed their algos.
  24. TellicoWx
    Yeah it does...almost considered the nam Ensemble. Can also give a glimpse into the next nam run sometimes for trends.
  25. TellicoWx
    For those curious, saw the 72hr NH verification scores last night in the MA forum...Euro is still consistently king (mid .9), CMC (low .9) is second, and GFS (upper .8). I use to have the link bookmarked, but can't find it...if anyone still has it.
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