When you start parking 1050+ HP on top of an active STJ, models will start shorting out. Rare anamolies such as that are not in their wiring so to speak.
What in the flying flippty bleep is the GFS smoking...raging ice storm under a 1038 HP in TX...the great lakes apparently will feed dry air from a HP to its west..and then boom the moisture train rides again.....
I'm not even sure what i just watched with the GFS Ai..1005 LP in North TX the backs up in to CO, then followed by 3 1005 LPs (1 in KY, 1 along Gulf, 1 still in CO)
If I was you guys north of 40 I wouldn't quite sleep on the window just coming into hi res windows. May be able to squeak out an inch or two if moisture doesn't die out too quickly.
Way this winter is going that would be a win
Icon didn't kick the Baja low...more pieces came thru. Precip shield would be more on the north side than shown looking at upper air moisture. Waves riding may be a better outcome than a full send of the Baja low.