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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Decent analog...globals struggle with deep cold and low levels being saturated
  2. TellicoWx
    I agree..vort is 50-100 miles east of where CMC has it most the eastern Valley loses the lift needed. The surface low off the coast only offers maybe some better moisture transport to the 850. Think we are 100% dependent on the 850...surface LP is just too far off (unless the whole setup can go negative tilt and phase together sooner)
  3. TellicoWx
    We saw the effect of trapped moisture with just enough lift last night and this morning..now place that DGZ near the surface and instead of mist you get nickles and dimes
  4. TellicoWx
    Take where the 850 vort is placed on the GFS and overlay that onto the CMC snowfall map...you can see the where the forcing is breaking out the snowfall.
  5. TellicoWx
    GFS joined the others somewhat on the general placement of the 850 vort (circled in blue)...lift=somewhat of a check. DGZ near the ground=check (mountains aiding in the lift). 850 saturated and trapped in valley=check. Any minor change in that 850 vort placement will light fuse so to speak for the GFS (was really close). Now just hold those ingredients for next 4 days lol. The approach of the center of the lobe of cold air alot will also help enhance the lift by squeezing everything out.
  6. TellicoWx
    One thing to note is the DGZ is going to be very close to the surface. The difference in solutions run to run is dependent upon where the 850 vort passes when dropping south out of Canada. If the winds veer at 850 from the NW instead of N, NNE then the lift mechanism needed would be the mountains/plateau. Moisture is in place, just need something to lift the parcels.
  7. TellicoWx
    So you're telling me there's a chance lol
  8. TellicoWx
    Would make sense...it and Euro AI typically run neck and neck from the limited verification scores
  9. TellicoWx
    And that's where the AI adaptation comes in to play...AI enhanced systems can add those pieces of the equation back in without consuming large amounts of computing power compared to the traditional system
  10. TellicoWx
    I've tried to figure that problem out for years...personally, I think it has to doe with the grids and physics engines for the upper air pattern. The closer you get alot of times the 500 pattern slowly ticks west..like the physics engine is too fast advancing leads to the old saying "models keep kicking the can down the road" in the LR. When they got rid of truncation and went physics based, they had to figure out a way to not consume enormous amounts of energy to run the system...so as the models advance in time, they generalize and remove some of the physics equation involved which leads models being to quick in upper air pattern. Just theory been working on.
  11. TellicoWx
    850/925 vort circled of the 6z Euro Ai...this is the big puzzle pieces to me
  12. TellicoWx
    Ummm...what is HUN radar picking up. Snow streaks to west are moving sw to NE...ones at radar are moving NNW to SSE...
  13. TellicoWx
    Definitely freezing drizzle..trees starting to get that glistening look to them
  14. TellicoWx
    Shhh...dont wanna scare it away this time lol
  15. TellicoWx
    Know plateau can sometimes dry things out on this side, but HUN radar seems to be "thickening up" in the lower atmospher
  16. TellicoWx
    Just checked deck and elevated surfaces turning to slush..31.7. Heavy drizzle/micro snowflakes/mist..not sure what to call it lol
  17. TellicoWx
    Glad you atleast got power back
  18. TellicoWx
    This is almost the perfect flash freeze setup
  19. TellicoWx
    Picked up almost quarter inch (.23) since 630 under no radar returns
  20. TellicoWx
    Not sure to call it heavy drizzle or light rain here...its still going.
  21. TellicoWx
    HUN has now put out a WWA for their area until 1 am
  22. TellicoWx
    Been almost constant light rain here for last couple hours (no radar returns). If it had been this consistent last night icing would have been bad. Cold front moved thru about 30 mins ago, temp dropping quickly now.
  23. TellicoWx
    Light drizzle/mist here currently..not good for area roads tonight
  24. TellicoWx
    Temp starting to crash on the mountain..bye bye 50's.
  25. TellicoWx
    Yeah, not as drastic but Tellico was 51 when I left for work, Madisonville was 33 when I got there.
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