TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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"In my experience, I have often seen these synoptically-driven events over perform the model snow amounts, and given the expected thermodynamic profiles and QG forcing, snowfall rates could be quite heavy at times. Amounts above the forecast range would not be surprising, but we are still over 48 hours from the start of the event, with plenty of time to fine tune the amounts." Almost fell outta my bed lol
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Just woke up and kinda surprised...figured MRX would hold until 12z runs at earliest. Also happy to see RGEM loaded...know it struggled somewhat this last storm but ice usually isn't it's thing. One of my favorite models in winter for MBY, just seems to do a decent job here usually.
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Going to wait a couple runs, but after looking at the 500 maps..definitely going to temper expectations some. Not liking the way the northern stream interacts for the east..omega back to being a possible issue.
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Goofy nailing central AL...that's new
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Checking 850s-700 moisture..almost exactly same...I'm stumped, unless it's a lift issue.
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Rumor has it...was so bad it already dove off the cliff lol jk
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Knew we needed @Stovepipe's mojo lol
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ICON cut in half here Not quite half...squeezed some out toward end...cut 2"
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Southern border counties definitely look to be getting Nam'd
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I despise that storm lol...ruined my whole winter. Was exact opposite here..was showing a decent event and watched rain falling 90% of the event lol.
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Yeah the microclimates in the valley makes forecasting in this area complicated. Remember seeing a long time ago where NWS acknowledged MRX as being one of the most difficult jobs. I give those folks crap from time to time, but couldn't pay me enough to sit in that position (hence why I never went thru with that profession when I left the Army lol).
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GFS looks to be nailing N MS, N. AL..had some Barney purple rates show up for a second (2"+/hr)
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RGEM sounding for Chatt...no signs of downsloping or WAA. Column is below freezing entire way. Problem is being dry slotted from the return off the gulf kills the DGZ. Same thing the globals were showing yesterday morning. Being at range for the RGEM nor surprised, but definitely something to keep an eye own over next 24 hrs.
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If and that's a big if at the moment...the system can turn sooner...someone on the eastern side will top 12"+...ICON shifted the heavy snow in Eastern NC to Western side that run. To me that's the final piece of the puzzle so to speak.
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ICON turned the corner a hair too late...very close tho.
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Yep, no worries about downsloping (so far) here
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ICON gonna make a run at a NAMing?
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Went with 4"-6" for the WSW Edit....it is tiered, browser loaded up same page for some reason.
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WSW out for West TN and N. MS
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GEFS looks like it's almost locked at solution...only 1 or 2 odd members left. As far as SLP placement
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Was watching Reed's chase update for Dallas area...and he pointed out the trend there is for the system to not really get going until it passes by. Feel for those folks..Lucy playing with them.
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Whoever said Jan '88, GFS was listening and tried (as far as N. AL) lol.
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Ukie looking alot like icon...deep saturation showing up
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GEFS mean
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Almost 5" mean covering 95% of the state
