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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Give me that kind of lift on the 18z RGEM and this type setup...and let the dice roll
  2. TellicoWx
    The DGZ isn't based on height (granted you would have to be at the Arctic for the DGZ to near the surface). It's based on certain temperature zone (-10C to -20C) relative to the RH in that zone. Saturate that area and flakes form. Temp from there to surface determines PType.
  3. TellicoWx
    Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll.
  4. TellicoWx
    Resolution issue...Globals have a hard time picking up low level moisture as time goes out...kinda like how the precip shield will typically fill in on the NW side on a LP as the event gets closer.
  5. TellicoWx
    Not quite there yet, but chance (maybe). What's something else that has to get pushed out? The low level moisture that also banks up to the mountains. Sometimes it gets pinched and trapped, especially across NE TN and Central foothills. Lucky to pick that up on modeling 12-24 hrs out.
  6. TellicoWx
    No, just too many years of watching these models and listening to you guys/ some others who are no longer on the boards.
  7. TellicoWx
    Here's the 925 map from the RGEM..you can see from the wind barbs are banking up against the Smokies, and how the 0 line is SW VA is trying to wrap (filling) it's way around the highest points. Hope that helps for a visual.
  8. TellicoWx
    Watch nearly any cold front on PWS stations..1st night west of 75 will be colder...as warm advects back in, east will be colder. (As always there are certain exceptions to that rule, but this doesn't seem to be one)
  9. TellicoWx
    I wouldn't even call it warmer lol..small Zone of 33-34 temps between the 925-850 layer..dps are really low, so could be end up as virga until it saturates (which the wet bulb is 99.5% below freezing). Valley is like a tub..cold faucet needs turned on for a minute to push the warm out or saturate it long enough to turn cold.
  10. TellicoWx
    Looking at the RGEM soundings, the wind direction this doesn't appear to be a downsloping issue. More like what is seen on every front rolling off the plateau, it slowed the front just a smidge more. Doing so causes less time for the Arctic air to wash the warmer air out of the valley, as it gets pushed against the Smokies. It's like a quasi warm nose in a way...rates, speed, and several other factors can quickly erase this problem, but won't be ironed out until closer to the event.
  11. TellicoWx
    MEG: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday.
  12. TellicoWx
    MEG and JAN pull the trigger
  13. TellicoWx
    NOAA runs two supercomputer system...nicknamed "Dogwood" and "Cactus"...ones in Virginia, one in Arizona. Currently they are numerically driven...but their replacements are being worked on that will change them to machine learning based. If the Enso states are being over done one way or the other, then a programmer changed their algos.
  14. TellicoWx
    Yeah it does...almost considered the nam Ensemble. Can also give a glimpse into the next nam run sometimes for trends.
  15. TellicoWx
    For those curious, saw the 72hr NH verification scores last night in the MA forum...Euro is still consistently king (mid .9), CMC (low .9) is second, and GFS (upper .8). I use to have the link bookmarked, but can't find it...if anyone still has it.
  16. TellicoWx
    See how it plays out, but a lot of model bias is showing up in each one. NAM has a long, long history of over amping. Globals tend to have a hard time even at short range with how far a true arctic front presses SE (too slow most times). Also, looking at RH data @700/850/925, some of the models output seem too dry on northern side. This arctic airmass "should" squeeze out every drop.
  17. TellicoWx
    Yeah GEFs had everything from cutter to a slider
  18. TellicoWx
    6z GEFS had a lot of scenarios lending support for the 12z...at 120 on 12z GEFs you can already see the return flow starting to stream north from western gulf.
  19. TellicoWx
    So much focus is on #1, think everyone almost isn't noticing what's following on the heels.
  20. TellicoWx
    Talk about a potentially crazy scenario for NWS offices.."We have upgraded, I mean downgraded,....hell the warning is now a watch that may turn into a warning"...lol.
  21. TellicoWx
    If GFS is in the right ballpark, maybe a tad more than a backend fluff
  22. TellicoWx
    With this system being a little flatter, it may leave the gulf more open for #2 (or the wave may turn into a #2 lol)
  23. TellicoWx
    Flatter the system, the more the Hi-Res mods will carry more weight due to the complex features of the valley.
  24. TellicoWx
    Definitely flatter....western side ticked north.
  25. TellicoWx
    Think NWS offices are pulling the trigger quicker due to the Arctic air following the system. Giving an increased lead time to the public. Wouldn't be shocked to see MEG pull the trigger early depending on how rest of 12z wraps up. They have it built into their wording for up to 36 hr lead.
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