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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    1...except upgrade current watch w/o extending it lol
  2. TellicoWx
    Think they just renamed the DGEX and hoped nobody would notice lol
  3. TellicoWx
    Sometimes I ask myself why I even bother trying to figure the GFS out lol. Only model so far this cycle that just obliterates the 850s....just...just go away gfs. * and how do you upgrade a turd...doesnt that make it a super turd
  4. TellicoWx
    Comparing the NAM vs the HiRes 3k, you can see how the northern shield is off for you folks in NE TN. Both have close to the same PWAT, with UVVs running -10 to -30 (indicates heavier precip potential) up into SE KY counties along the border. Even tho they are very similar, the NAM has alot less precip and shield. Would think the HiRes shield and rates are closer to reality.
  5. TellicoWx
    Starting at 54 on the NAM (850s go below 0 for a large part of E TN) and rolling forward in time, the system is backbuilding over the region. This can be seen at the 700 RH level, the UVVs should depict precip falling, but the NAM sim radar has little to nothing. The PWAT isn't great, but at the same time enough that something should be depicted. From 54 thru 66 the 700 RH and UVVs actually get better across the area as time goes.
  6. TellicoWx
    12z NAM seems off on its northern precip starting around HR54.
  7. TellicoWx
    While the trends haven't been great, we are still outside the mesoscale models wimdow. With so many microclimates in East TN, won't completely write off this storm at least the next 24 hr model cycle.
  8. TellicoWx
    The 850 vort has been shifting south, we lose the lift it provided across the northern area and allows the downsloping to really eat away at everything. The highs being a tad stronger allows even more drying as it reaches further south. Basically it loses its characteristics as a miller B or hybrid from what I can tell.
  9. TellicoWx
    What's shutting the pwats down on it?
  10. TellicoWx
    00z NAM
  11. TellicoWx
    12z EPS mean...lowered some, especially middle and west TN
  12. TellicoWx
    All the column profiles I've looked at have a sleet look to them due to a slightly warm nose in the 850 lvl, not sure where they are seeing frz rain. Surface temps are above freezing too.
  13. TellicoWx
    Don't have the text data, but on the maps at hr 78/84 when the accumulation happens 850T is +1/-2 and 925T is -1/-2, with a 2m of 34 at TYS.
  14. TellicoWx
    It can be very useful to check for trends in the s/w as it comes ashore
  15. TellicoWx
    Wish had a lot better access to HiRes maps of the UKie. I plotted the vort for learning purposes, and you can see tell the GFS/NAM are a lot weaker and NW when the absorp into the coastal. Euro/FV3 still have it wrapped up as it's going thru GA.
  16. TellicoWx
    Someone posted in the MA forum that the s/w is stronger currently vs what was modeled a little bit ago.
  17. TellicoWx
    Considering the NAM is still in voodoo land at that range, its hard to put it into a camp.
  18. TellicoWx
    Basically it looks like it's the NAM/GFS vs Euro/FV3 As far as how the 850 vort unfolds. NAM/GFS (west/less influence on coastal) Euro/FV3 (east/holds coastal and tries to turn it somewhat). CMC is kinda in the middle.
  19. TellicoWx
    Honestly I'm not quite buying what the FV3 spit out. You would think and approach into NW GA like that would shoot the 850s up the valley, plus the natural warming downsloping plays. If it approached from as sw to ne from central AL into NE GA, then yeah it would funnel the cold down the valley.
  20. TellicoWx
    Yeah I agree lol...if there is no cold supply, doesn't matter where it pivots.
  21. TellicoWx
    I think it revolves around where the 850 absorbs into the coastal, the further west it does like the NAM and GFS , it shuts the moisture feed down quicker and also has influence over pulling or slowing the coastal down.
  22. TellicoWx
    College of Dupage site loaded alot better than TT
  23. TellicoWx
    4 models/4 different outcomes regarding the 850 vort lol, but it paints a picture on each one how the loc greatly effects the snowfall and lift. 12z NAM- Central/ S TN pivot 12z GFS- TN/Al/MS line 12z CMC- C AL 12z FV3- NW GA The closer (As long as it is south of TN line) the greater the lift and ability to pull the cold in at 925/850. FV3 is a paste job if it sticks (surface temps a little warm, but column is below freezing all way thru). * this is for eastern TN, same would apply tho for west and middle TN. N and NW side of the pivot in regards to your location
  24. TellicoWx
    Where the trailing 850 low goes, so does the waa and movement in snow ice. 12z NAM and GFS came in further north into TN compared to 06z. CMC pivoted to the coast further south over C AL.
  25. TellicoWx
    A couple things I noticed this morning from the 00z Euro, the 850 ul improved greatly as far as the track, but it came with a catch it seems. We lose the lift and downsloping is allowed to play a bigger role, also the lighter rates don't cool the 850s enough over the central and southern valley, As Carver has pointed out, 1-2 degree difference plays a tremendous role. Also the 850 and surface low are too strung out from each other, since the surface low heads straight ots instead of trying to cut. Valley areas need perfect placement of all the players to pan out (as is usual). Even if we end of with all rain, it is still fun to watch and learn from the evolution of this system.
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