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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    Interested in the 27th-1st timeframe, we have had an active southern jet but with the EPO wandering between slightly positive to negative, we have also been flooded with warm Pacific air. Both the GFS and Euro are finally tanking the EPO to around -5. On the control of the weeklies it tanks again for a longer period around Feb 15 timeframe. Past winters have shown how the EPO can trump everything if it can go negative enough.
  2. TellicoWx
    The only downside in the EPS and GEFS is they seem to be keeping everything in the 7-15 day timeframe, need to start seeing those move forward in time. Both means really don't have much if anything until day 7/8 on these runs.
  3. TellicoWx
    0z EPS and GEFS means:
  4. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS mean:
  5. TellicoWx
    Yeah, fairly strong signal for the entire south once the mid week front clears on the Gefs.
  6. TellicoWx
    The best I remember is..the deeper the cold, the better the odds for it to clear the plateau. If its shallow as it moves in, the odds for snowfall decrease across the central/southern valley, and ice chances increase over the plateau/middle TN.
  7. TellicoWx
    Another nice run for the south on the 06z Gefs:
  8. TellicoWx
    To me the million dollar question is, Can the front clear the apps? A lot of times the fronts get hungup on the plateau or mtns and that is what the models are trying to sort out.
  9. TellicoWx
    00z GEFS mean was about as nice as you could ask for in the south:
  10. TellicoWx
    For the entire run...2" line extends down into central MS/AL.
  11. TellicoWx
    18z GEFS mean looks alot better than last couple runs for the entire state.
  12. TellicoWx
    Nice write up Carver. December temp anomaly wise for the US looks to end up as a weak version of Dec 1986. It's hard to find info for historical purposes for our side of the mtns, but NC state has a good database for the other side of the Mtn. Late Jan thru Feb 1987 was backloaded on their side, even with a storm with blizzard like conditions in early April 1987. Also, 1987 was the year DC was blanked in Dec only to end up with one of their snowiest winters. A weakened version of 86/87 could line up well with your thoughts.
  13. TellicoWx
    Recorded 30mph here in Tellico, in the valley. EMS had to transport a woman who was hit with flying debris after part of her roof came off.
  14. TellicoWx
    I didn't get any at the house, but a mile up the road on top of Coker Creek Mtn picked up 1" overnight. Received 2.84" of rain since Sat night, ready to see the sun now.
  15. TellicoWx
    On break, made it to 90/10 rain/snow here in Athens to west of 75 lol
  16. TellicoWx
    Yeah, temps at 38 tho
  17. TellicoWx
    Rain here in Athens
  18. TellicoWx
    Down to 35° here, with a heavy mist, seems to be a lot f low level moisture trapped still against the mtns.
  19. TellicoWx
    Picked up 8" at the state line on the Skyway (maybe more further up on NC side, didn't go all the way over).
  20. TellicoWx
    The system around the 15 may squeeze a few snow showers out for the mountains. The trailing 850 vort captures some neg 850s with it, 18z GFS came in further south while 12z Euro came north. With no cold air supply to the north, it's elevation driven. Looking at the teleconnections, around and after the 21st is where I'm interested to see if anything can begin to show up for anything in our forum. PNA is kinda blah.
  21. TellicoWx
    Regarding tonight's moisture, the Euro tries to spinup a weak 850 vort over mid SC, NAM is farthest East just off the coast but dries out the upper layers quicker, while the GFS takes the middle ground. Euro/GFS are both saturated enough thru 700 layer. Loc of the weak impulse and drying from the NW varies the snowfall from 1/2" to 2".
  22. TellicoWx
    If I'm not mistaken, the GFS is the one that had the 90° turn with some of the pieces while the rest were more smooth. I know I dismissed it as Goofy being Goofy, but maybe it's resolution/algorithm wasn't allowing it to tell a complete story. While the higher resolution models, can "see" things better, thier algorithms as designed to smooth out such "noise". One thing I am taking away for this storm modeling wise, if you see pockets of 850s/925s showing up it's a red flag that something is just not right in the thermals regardless of what transition is going on.
  23. TellicoWx
    MRX AFD for tonight: For later tonight however, the backside of the shortwave trough axis will shift back overhead. Model soundings show the column saturating vertically back into the dendritic growth zone again around and after midnight as this occurs. This supports snow spreading back southward across much of the forecast area tonight. No significant changes in that regard as previous forecasts showed at least a rain/snow mix spreading south to the Georgia border late tonight and into Monday morning. There are some doubts with regard to additional snow accumulations tonight. Have another 1-2 inches advertised in the higher terrain tonight, with another half an inch possible in the central and northern valley. Some guidance suggests more is possible, others less, so the going forecast is a middle ground approach. Suspect this is in good standing given the expected low level temperature profiles.
  24. TellicoWx
    Congrats to everyone who got snow, nice cold flood here lol. Looking back I can't help to think of the model solutions that broke the ULL apart into multiple pieces during the transition, with some performing a 90° turn. Just a theory of mine, but I believe that is what may have happened. Instead of a smooth transition, we ended up with multiple pieces at varying layers that jumbled everything up (warm, cold, warm, cold throughout the column). If that is the case, modeling wise our technology hasn't reached that type of resolution ability yet. An interesting system to go back over tho.
  25. TellicoWx
    Highest point on the road is 5390', and Newfound Gap was getting rocked last night, so I would assume it was about the same up there. We got nothing but rain. How did your side do in the low elevations?
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