TellicoWx

No slides on anywhere here, unless it's in the CNF itself, off the roadways. Really has surprised me so far.

Overall, it was the 64th highest recording. SE TN mountains were spared the worst part.

Broke the daily flow record here on the Tellico, prev record was 1962.

That's my biggest concern here...heaviest rate look aimed more south of 40. River here didn't get to recede much and is right at bank full...need the stuff over N Al to weaken.

Columbus, MS just took a direct hit

Widespread damage inside the city...scary video coming in from inside what appears to be a gas station.

Initial reports are Columbus took a direct hit

EAS activated:

Exit 49 on I75 in McMinn Co is closed. Hwy 305 is becoming impassable in places. AFD Pics:

Flash Flood Warning for Roane and Loudon Co now

That is a really scary radar for Knox Co. Line thru middle TN is on a ENE trajectory...not much of a north movement. Looks like the train will hit hardest I40 and N Knox Co.

Janet is correct...area flood warning was issued when a flash flood warning should have been first. Areal is for steady rises...which was not the case.

The recent radar trends have been favoring the heaviest axis of rainfall a bit to the south and east of the 00Z HREF mean including recent HRRR runs. Adjusting for this, and accounting for the organized nature of the convection (with aid of 50 to 60 kt effective bulk shear values), it would appear that the heaviest axis of rainfall going through the mid-morning hours will tend to be oriented more to the east-northeast from northern MS and northern AL over through south-central TN. Although, it appears that heavy rainfall with bit less intensity will also overspread eastern TN over the next several hours. Also, areas of far northwest GA and far southwest NC may see some period of heavy rain as well. The hires multi-model suite of guidance would support additional rainfall amounts as high as 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near 5 inches going through 15Z.

Sometimes a pic is better than a model. This image of the SE radars tells alot. You can see the surface front drifting north over north central AL/GA, surging the moisture north (light blue shading near the radar sights south of the front. The 850 front drapped sw-ne across MS to the N Plateau. Where the surface front catches the 850 front...its unloading a tremendous amount of the gulf moisture. Very bad setup...anywhere N of the entire southern TN border.

Closed until at least sunrise...Geologist has to arrive. NCDOT Cam

4 pm, 3k. Still have the severe line of storms in W TN to go.

Do you think the atmosphere can rebound that much after being worked over?

3k hammers southern border of TN/Plateau/into E TN...storms training same areas over and over

Wow...i feel for you guys put in W TN...flooding, then severe ramping up

00z NAM

Fairly significant shift south on the 00z NAM as well. 18z was up into KY.

00z shifted south some on the HRRR...i fear some have let their guard down too soon (including myself).

I'm not sure what is going wrong in the models (whether its something in the coding..etc), but even the initializations are off on the hi res short range. We have seen it all winter in the med to long range models. Perfect example of the chaos theory in action...bad initialization = compounded variation in error as time goes.

Outstanding job by the lock operators along Ft. Loudon lake. Tellico River has yet to reach Flood Stage. If someone had told me at the beggining we would be sitting at 6.3" by Friday morning and the river wouldn't flood, I would have thought they were silly.