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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Agrees with the others..think the RAP was the fastest breaking out snow over N MS before sunrise.
  2. TellicoWx
    Yeah overnight into the morning hours...slight timing differences maybe in each model, but that's the general consensus
  3. TellicoWx
    RAP is the furthest north of the 4, and plays down a good bit along the TN/GA border.
  4. TellicoWx
    3K, HRRR, and RGEM all showing a little something
  5. TellicoWx
    Folks in the southern valley/N Ga may wanna keep an eye on the disturbance rotating thru overnight/early morning timeframe tonight. Most modeling squeezing out decent chance of snow showers. Haven't got to look at the thermal soundings.
  6. TellicoWx
    13500 cubic feet per sec...haven't seen the Tellico River this high since it collapsed the Cherohala Skyway in 1993.
  7. TellicoWx
    01z HRRR would be a big problem here
  8. TellicoWx
    Yeah, not liking the 0z runs so far or the 01z HRRR here for SE TN. Models upped the totals. Alot of people this afternoon were talking about how the worse was over cause of the break...afraid alot are going to be caught off gaurd.
  9. TellicoWx
    Big time flooding here in Monroe Co..houses starting to flood, roads impassable, and starting to evacuate some people in the county.
  10. TellicoWx
    The common analog on SARS the last several runs is 4/18/69. That system produced an F4 in Greenville, AL killing 2. A total of 13 tornadoes formed, mostly in the F0-F2 range. A 218 mi path was also recorded in southern GA and rated F2. Storm caused 50 injuries, besides the 2 deaths in the F4.
  11. TellicoWx
    Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some.
  12. TellicoWx
    By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co.
  13. TellicoWx
    Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail: Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg 351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky, including the following area, Whitley. * Through Tuesday afternoon * Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine. * If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.
  14. TellicoWx
    Almost time to breakout the purples again unfortunately...12z GEFS
  15. TellicoWx
    Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5"
  16. TellicoWx
    Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.
  17. TellicoWx
    Most of the bright returns over west TN is brightbanding. 3k was a little to slow and Euro a little too far south, but so far amounts in west TN are close to what GFS had. Big question is does the convection develop over central/southern AL robbing the moisture transport north.
  18. TellicoWx
    Picked up 1.14" so far here and still pouring
  19. TellicoWx
    Big jump N on the 18z NAM...hopefully on overcorrection
  20. TellicoWx
    Definitely need to keep an eye on the weekend system across SE TN...Euro/NAM/CMC 12z suite showing 3"-5" across NW GA. GFS has similar range further south over Atlanta.
  21. TellicoWx
    12z Euro
  22. TellicoWx
    Pic from Knox Mayor of a sinkhole just opened this morning in Powell
  23. TellicoWx
    Reports of a landslide on Northshore Dr in Knoxville now
  24. TellicoWx
    Don't believe snow is happening south of 40. Models have overplayed the reach of cold all winter, don't think this is any different. Region hopefully doesn't end up of the battle zone with stalled fronts. Much more of a NW shift on modeling and even the Cumberland region will be in the axis with these next waves.
  25. TellicoWx
    EURO keeps shifting the axis of heaviest precip more N...something to keep an eye on over next 72 hrs.
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