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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Upstream radar looking fairly healthy for you NW facing guys.
  2. TellicoWx
    Not surprised the OPs are flopping around so much..with such a large spread in all the teleconnections in LR modeling, hopefully we can start narrowing the spread soon. Right now I would just go with climo and enso as a base until it's sorted out some lol.
  3. TellicoWx
    I wouldn't be surprised if some of the NW flow areas over perform tonight...column is saturated thru 700 and with the ULL passing overhead, the UVV looks good. Decent vertical lift to go along with the orographic enhancement.
  4. TellicoWx
    You didn't happen to hijack the teleconnects on the LR EPS today did you lol? AO mean has been slowly stepping down the last 3 runs for Dec heading into Jan (now in the 0 to +0.5 range for monthly average). If the trend continues and we can get into the 0 to -0.5 range, there is 10 timeframes that fall into that area. Once you start eliminating the ones that don't closely resemble QBO, Nino 3.4...etc the list narrows to 3. Here's an overview on one of the 3...Nino 3.4 (.8), AO (-0.24), QBO (1.69), PNA (-.5), NAO (-1..outside the range, but models keep hinting at one), EPO (negative regime DJF)..and featured a SSW split.....Dec 1977. Thought it was funny 1977 was brought up, then when the teleconnections came in and was looking at different similar analogs, 1977 pops up (first time so far). I usually start with the AO mean (if don't have a cold source, rest dont amount to much), then comb thru every other indice and trend to narrow the list. Still on the fence for this winter, but the analog years have been getting better last few runs (was spitting out only torch years 2011, 2006, 1951 examples). Last couple runs have come up with some better ones like 1977...1986 was an interesting ones last run. Mainly cause it is remembered for the record cold, but up until Dec 20, 1986 TYS was actually AN temp wise...then the bottom completely fell out.
  5. TellicoWx
    If the GEFS is anywhere in the right ballpark on the EPO, a big time shot of cold is about to drop into the central/eastern US. The Pacific is our biggest driver and can overcome a not favorable AO/NAO. -AO/-NAO can help lock the EPO in for longer periods of time. Last year with the strengthening going on with the PV (QBO rising), it would have taken a serious -EPO/-NAO regime to dislodge a decent lobe south. With the opposite happening so far entering winter (QBO in decline), I don't think the modeling will be anywhere as bad. Just don't need the QBO to stall or start rising.
  6. TellicoWx
    Great discussion everyone, I also find the part about a possible SSW event intriguing cause it lines up with the two years I'm looking into...2002 and 2004. I like using the top down method for the atmosphere and looking longer range. Since 1948, only 02 and 04 are close to where the QBO is currently at as far as reading plus trend. Both years also were close to a neutral state ONI, granted this year we are closer to actual 0 than those 2 (.6 and .9). Both 02 and 04 featured a wintertime SSW event as well. But that is where the similarities end for 02 and 04. While both started close to avg for the month of Dec temp wise, Jan and Feb went in complete opposites. 2002 went cold for both, while 2004 torched to a degree. The AO/NAO combo was complete opposites as well. The divergence in those two setups, is the SST near Alaska, warm pool there assisted the ridging along the west coast in being a predominant feature. While 04 was a cold pool state allowing the cold to stay bottled over Canada and warm Pacific air to flood the continental US. We are in a warm SST currently (ridge promotions), QBO has been falling (trend is more important than reading) which acts as a primer for dislodging the PV. If the NAO can sync up with the ridging, we could definitely see the cold drop coast to coast at some point. Those SST off Alaska is a big key for us and I don't think LR modeling has that completely worked out. So with the current setup, I think Dec will end up close to avg, with a BN Jan, and slightly BN Feb (based on fairly good odds of a weak/mod SSW event coupled with the SST). If we lose the warm pool and the EPO doesn't go moderately negative, the keep the shorts handy lol. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  7. TellicoWx
    23-27 is a time frame the EPS has been showing for next chance of seeing some flakes possibly (NE TN/SE KY/N Plateau). Window has been advancing forward in time the last couple days.
  8. TellicoWx
    Even a hint at maybe something to watch your and John's way
  9. TellicoWx
    Finishing off with some fat flakes, coated the grass with a heavy dusting
  10. TellicoWx
    Agree 100%, how much did you end up with? Happy for everyone who got in on this event, hopefully a preview of winter when climo brings a lot more in the game.
  11. TellicoWx
    Looking at temp data, looks like the <32° wet bulb line made it to Rockwood thru Greenback line in the valley
  12. TellicoWx
    HRRR did an excellent job here on the soundings...not so well on the accumulation map.
  13. TellicoWx
    Probably should have added from Loudon Co north
  14. TellicoWx
    Rain/snow mix here 36, temp falling fast but not sure it will make it low enough to stick before the back edge gets here.
  15. TellicoWx
    5z HRRR coming in about a degree colder, puts a large portion of valley right at the 32-33 mark
  16. TellicoWx
    If it plays out like those two models, think ridges in the valley roughly around 1000' and above will have the better chance at accumulation.
  17. TellicoWx
    Honestly a very hard call for MRX south of 40, looking at the RAP/HRRR soundings, they support snow falling in the valley but the surface temps are between 33-35. Going to be hard to get much to stick unless we can hit the 32 mark quicker.
  18. TellicoWx
    NWS Memphis extending WWA to include all N MS..radar showing snow falling in Tupelo with a temp of 32 lol
  19. TellicoWx
    Front is approaching the 75/40 split
  20. TellicoWx
    Comparing current temps in Crossville to the 18z Euro meteogram, the front looks to be about an hour ahead of schedule. Question now is does the moisture back over MS fill in and pivot to the north as modeled.
  21. TellicoWx
    Front has reached Crossville
  22. TellicoWx
    Yeah, most setups seems like forever to reach Dayton/Spring City when watching my area
  23. TellicoWx
    Interested to see how quickly it can spill over
  24. TellicoWx
    NAM and 3k still good for the valley
  25. TellicoWx
    Usually a good indicator to how the NAM is gonna go
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