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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Nice increase on 12z EPS for my area Mon/Tues
  2. TellicoWx
    Not the only one having a hard time believing it. Ensembles, especially the GEFS, leaned a lot more toward cold chasing fropa instead of the Miller A on their OPs.
  3. TellicoWx
    0z suite: GFS: Miller A low along the gulf ICON, CMC, UKIE: cold chasing moisture
  4. TellicoWx
    Yeah, nose makes it to around Chatt. Decent ice event for AL with that setup. Sounding for around Anniston:
  5. TellicoWx
    Nice increase here in 12z EPS members showing something. About all can ask for at this range, get the members...then hopefully trends wetter.
  6. TellicoWx
    Decent uptick on 12z EPS for north of 40 and SE KY
  7. TellicoWx
    12z Icon with the southern most solution starts developing the energy deeper in the gulf before turning the corner...with Jacksonville FL getting some flakes lol.
  8. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS not as enthusiastic about the chances, about 50% chances of flakes...10-20% chance of flakes sticking to something lol. Think we could see things swing back and forth up to 48-72 hrs out. Remember some of the old timers saying..when a big HP comes down the plains, watch for surprise energy pieces when front is entering SE or on the backside when it begins to relax.
  9. TellicoWx
    Safe to say all the big global models have some sort of energy along the front..now just need to start seeing some consensus between each OP and their Ensembles.
  10. TellicoWx
    Euro already looks better at 126
  11. TellicoWx
    Ukie looking better than it has for return moisture along the front, interested to see if Euro follows it.
  12. TellicoWx
    Need the OP to get some support from the GEFS
  13. TellicoWx
    Interesting 0z suite so far from GFS and CMC:
  14. TellicoWx
    Some increase in the mean so far on the 0z EPS: 12z vs 0z
  15. TellicoWx
    Decent day for the Ensembles: Measurable (1+), for my area. Any flakes in November here is a win lol. GEFS: 6z 1/21 (0) 12z 1/21 (1) 18z 6/21 (2) 00z 13/21 (7) EPS: since 12z yesterday 12z 8/51 (2) 00z 19/51 (4) 12z 21/51 (6) Still waiting on tonight's 0z EPS. 0z GEFS also had a sharp drop for the mean high, closer to the EPS now in the mid 30's.
  16. TellicoWx
    Key piece to me is the piece of energy on 6z and prior GFS is weaker on 12z GFS, allowing Atlantic ridge to build back to Greenland quicker in allowing a deeper trough...12z GFS and Euro doesn't have it beating on western edge of the ridge. (6z vs 12z GFS)
  17. TellicoWx
    Need the lead system exiting the NE to act as a block and slow the pattern for the 11/12 piece of energy (0z Euro)...GFS is more progressive, and scoots it out to sea.
  18. TellicoWx
    0z Euro continued the cold for the 11/12 timeframes. EPS increased the total members from 8 to 18 (my area) showing measurable snowfall.
  19. TellicoWx
    00z GFS unloaded the arctic on the Eastern 2/3 of the US (very impressive for beginning of Nov), and kept rotating energy down the backside. Hundred different scenarios in all that mess lol.
  20. TellicoWx
    Definitely would like to see the GEFS start to have some agreement with the OP, GEFS in same type camp as Euro...more of a glancing shot for the SE. Those temps tho on that run lol...fun to see what a little snow can do. After the last few years, starting to think whatever used to be normal output for the analogs, ENSO, and everything else we use...now just needs flipped. Atmosphere almost acts in reverse compared to normal as far as long range.
  21. TellicoWx
    Still was able to generate first weenie map of the winter lol..
  22. TellicoWx
    18z Goofus was close to something..
  23. TellicoWx
    Lots of energy in the modeling across the northern stream, driving that high south. If somehow could get a little more action from the southern stream....
  24. TellicoWx
    Completely agree with the mini "Chinook" effect Carver. Today was a good example of the tons of microclimates around the area. Due to the angle approach of the wind field with the front, the downsloping was not as pronounced over the southern foothills and valley....which is why I think there was more wind energy (and damage) across the central/northern valley counties. As far as winter storm effects, Tellico is a great area to study exactly what you are referring to. We sit in a horseshoe here in town, so it's easy to watch how the downsloping plays out. What I've noticed is when there is a warm 850 layer, with decent wind speeds, it does seemingly mix the 850 temps to the surface quicker....kinda going hand in hand with each other (downslope/warm nose). End result is usually Tellico has a quicker changeover to rain in that scenario, compared to all the other locations in the county.
  25. TellicoWx
    Graph of how the downsloping kicked in this morning as the front approached
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