TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
00z Euro, showed accumulations of an inch or two for McMinn/Monroe area. Some models have it, some dont. MRX updated the point cast this morning here to include up to an inch overnight.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah they did, they are focused on the 2nd piece of energy for tonight that will have the biggest impact on the central/southern valley.- 1,195 replies
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Here's a meteogram for you to put in your archives Carvers lol. Latest HRRR for Tri: *check the snow output...you need a bulldozer
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
You can tell on the hr 6 frame that it is incorrectly handling the 925 temps for Central and Southern Valley. It has 0° line near me, but unless the temp can drop 4° in next 20 mins on the Skyway, that's not going to verify.- 1,195 replies
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Finally starting to see the temps up on the Skyway come down after being stuck for the last several hours.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I can't find any modeling that has the ptype that far south.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Snow being reported now as far south as Oxford, MS..ULL needs to come on already lol.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
06z NAM (10:1)- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
NAM is still goofy, any model showing 8.1" at TYS and half that in Morristown is offs it's rocker to an extent i would think.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
New found Gap is getting crushed...automated sensor:- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Some parts of NE AR are up to .50" of ice accretion and never fully changed to snow as some of the modeling showed..lots of power outages reported.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
You definitely hit the nail on the head, and why I have one foot dangling at the ledge lol. If the transfer is quicker, then I hoped I packed a parachute.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm not ready to cliff dive yet lol, need to see how thing react in those level once we turn off the flow from the gulf. Then it's up to how much cold air the NNW side of the 850 vort can bring and if the UVVs can bring it to the surface.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
With the SW flow, definitely need to bulldoze this feature lol- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Euro upticked the second piece of energy again, while slightly backing off on how far this initial changeover this morning can get. For areas from TYS to Crossvile south, the secondary energy looks to be a lot better shot at something sticking.- 1,195 replies
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Until the flow from the SW begins to turn off, the 850s/925s will struggle against it. The shutdown is basically from Winchester to Cookeville currently. The it's up to being under the comma head and getting enough dynamic cooling as the 850s should improve after that water cannon is turned off. Almost to 2" of rain so far for me.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looked to matchup fairly well at 00z to me.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looking at temps, radar, etc...seems the 12z Euro is closest to matching to me.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Checking the NAM vs current conditions, a couple things noticed 1) the NAM isn't picking up the changeover in NE AR very well at all and 2) it is running 2° or so on the warm side for the southern valley and from Nashville south.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
18z special balloon launch data from Little Rock, haven't checked to see how it matches up with modeling.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not sure I put a lot of faith right now in the HRRR as far as temps. It's the only model right now raising temps thru the night in Crossville.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
NE AR has switched over to all snow, been following that area today to see how things play out. They did a special 18z balloon launch and found a warm nose at 850 still over Little Rock.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Went over the 1/2" rain mark now...if only this was Jan lol- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
TellicoWx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
High here today was 41.9 at midnight, afternoon high was 39.6, temps slowly beginning to cool as the sun starts to go down.- 1,195 replies