TellicoWx

00z NAM

Fairly significant shift south on the 00z NAM as well. 18z was up into KY.

00z shifted south some on the HRRR...i fear some have let their guard down too soon (including myself).

I'm not sure what is going wrong in the models (whether its something in the coding..etc), but even the initializations are off on the hi res short range. We have seen it all winter in the med to long range models. Perfect example of the chaos theory in action...bad initialization = compounded variation in error as time goes.

Outstanding job by the lock operators along Ft. Loudon lake. Tellico River has yet to reach Flood Stage. If someone had told me at the beggining we would be sitting at 6.3" by Friday morning and the river wouldn't flood, I would have thought they were silly.

1.26" so far and still moderate rain

00z 3k is prob worst case scenario for SE TN. Models all day have underperformed here... .6" so far. 3k spits out close to 3" by noon tomorrow and front still stalled south of the area, overrunning precip.

MRX:

Update to MRX FFW for E TN: * Additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread the region tonight, lasting through Saturday morning. Rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches are expected with isolated higher amounts closer to 4 inches possible. * Given the already saturated soil and high stream flows, the additional moderate to heavy rains will likely cause significant stream flooding, roadway flooding, mud slides, and main stem river flooding. Potentiallly life threatening flooding is possible. * If you live near a stream, creek or river that typically floods easily, please have a plan in place now to evacuate in the event of flood waters begin to rise.

MRX now updated the Watch

Alabama Power opening flood gates now along the Coosa. People coming to the spillways to film and take pictures.

Coosa River in Rome, GA close to topping its banks and spilling into the city.

They went into HUN area as well, from reading the AFD, I believe they are trying to reach as many as possible regardless of CWA.

From OHX:

From OHX AFD, just wow...not too many times seen one wrote like this This isn`t a forecast discussion I write lightly. After yesterday`s widespread flooding across all of Middle TN, even with the 18 hour break in rainfall, the addition of even another 1 to 1.5 inches is going to create some major issues. The problem is, we`re now forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain just through tomorrow afternoon and a total of 3 to 5 inches from tonight through Saturday night. The highest amounts are currently thought to fall across southwest portions of Middle TN, basically west of I-24 and south of I-40. While there were already swift water rescues yesterday, this amount of rainfall is likely to cause more of the same and probably even cause some people to be thinking about a plan to evacuate. This needs to be your focus prior tonight. If you live near a stream or a creek or a river that you know floods easily, you need to have a plan in place to evacuate and get to higher ground in the event waters begin to rise as this has the makings of a life-threatening situation. The main time of concern begins early tomorrow morning, runs right through most of the day tomorrow and probably won`t let up much, if at all, tomorrow night. While there is a severe weather threat Saturday evening across the mid-state, the focus right now needs to be the extreme amount of rainfall we`re expecting. Please don`t take this lightly. Have a plan in place now so you can evacuate to higher ground quickly, if need be.

HRRR is initializing too low even for the rain here in the last hour. Doesn't have an accumulation until after midnight, picked up .23".

12z Euro:

321 closed again...another slide between Walland and Townsend

Day 2 WPC FFG: Yet another impulse in the mid levels moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico will move across portions of Mississippi and Louisiana at the start of the Day 2 period...or Friday morning...and then take a more easterly track by the time is reaches the southern portion of the Appalachians. Heaviest rainfall from the system looks in the Tennessee Valey and portions of adjacent states. Model QPF values were generally in the 2 to 3 inch range with a couple isolated amounts in excess of 4 inches. This is consistent with some instability developing in response to deepening moisture, low level flow on the order of 25 kts to 35 kts that accelerates to between 30 kts and 45 kts as well as weakly channeled mid level vorticity. The synoptic set up and the QPF amounts would not garner much attention if the conditions had been dry...but the area has had multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall over the past 5 days or so and Flash Flood Guidance values have been supressed accordingly. Maximum rainfall on Day 2 is expected to be in the Tennessee Valley and Southern States...but flash flooding is a concern in the southern portion of the Appalachians. Rain will be falling in complex terrain and in areas of snow-cover...making the area more vulnerable to flash flooding despite the fact that heaviest rainfall stays to the west. Based on coordination/collaboration with affected offices, have introduced a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall over portions of the Tennesse Valley on Day 2.

Hwy 70 in Hawkins Co...Pic TDOT. Homes evacuated within 1/2 mile radius and TDOT geologist now on site. Incredible wasn't more hurt due to being during overnight hours.

Enhanced Severe risk now for weekend: In phase with the subtropical westerlies, a vigorous short wave impulse of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate northeast of the southern Plains through the Great Lakes region during this period. Strong cyclogenesis may already be underway by 12Z Saturday near the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, and models continue to indicate that the rapid evolution of a broad and deep cyclone will proceed northeastward into the Great Lakes region by the end of the period. This likely will include the intensification of a cyclonic mid-level jet, including speeds in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb, across the southern Plains Red River Valley, through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Across the evolving warm sector, models indicate that south/southwesterly winds will strengthen to 50-70+ kt through the 850-700 mb layer. Although the warm frontal zone probably will surge north of the Ohio River, and into/through the lower Great Lakes region by late Saturday evening, an initial position roughly along the Ohio River west-southwestward into the Ozark Plateau may provide the main focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Early period convection, associated with weak elevated destabilization above the front, may inhibit, or at least slow, boundary-layer destabilization to the north, while leaving a remnant surface boundary. In association with the onset of stronger surface pressure falls, surface dew points are expected to increase through the lower/mid 60s along and south of this boundary. Coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent, this is expected to contribute at least weak boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an evolving organized mesoscale convective system. CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg appears possible. Given the strength of the environmental wind fields (and shear) within the convective layer, the convective system may be accompanied by considerable potential for strong and damaging wind gusts. It appears that this may initiate over parts of central and eastern Arkansas by midday, before progressing east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. A few tornadoes, some strong, are also possible, particularly with discrete supercells which may form near/just ahead of mainly the southern flank of the evolving system. More discrete storms, including supercells, may eventually develop as far south as the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the southern Appalachians by late Saturday night.

00z suite: basically all hi res short range model (NAM/3K/RGEM/HRRR) plus CMC (2-4 for southern M TN & C/S Valley) vs GFS/FV3/ICON (further NW & lighter) thru Fri evening.

3k NAM very similar, trains storms over the same area Fri

00z NAM is ugly Friday for southern TN and central valley. Front doesn't push as quickly north and stalls, before pushing thru. Tomorrow the front is stalled a little too close for comfort across SE TN...N GA gets hammered.

Def looks like glitches data on those wind speed. The gust (green), should always be above or inline with wind speed (red)