TellicoWx

Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some.

By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co.

Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail: Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg 351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky, including the following area, Whitley. * Through Tuesday afternoon * Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine. * If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.

Almost time to breakout the purples again unfortunately...12z GEFS

Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5"

Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.

Most of the bright returns over west TN is brightbanding. 3k was a little to slow and Euro a little too far south, but so far amounts in west TN are close to what GFS had. Big question is does the convection develop over central/southern AL robbing the moisture transport north.

Picked up 1.14" so far here and still pouring

Big jump N on the 18z NAM...hopefully on overcorrection

Definitely need to keep an eye on the weekend system across SE TN...Euro/NAM/CMC 12z suite showing 3"-5" across NW GA. GFS has similar range further south over Atlanta.

12z Euro

Pic from Knox Mayor of a sinkhole just opened this morning in Powell

Reports of a landslide on Northshore Dr in Knoxville now

Don't believe snow is happening south of 40. Models have overplayed the reach of cold all winter, don't think this is any different. Region hopefully doesn't end up of the battle zone with stalled fronts. Much more of a NW shift on modeling and even the Cumberland region will be in the axis with these next waves.

EURO keeps shifting the axis of heaviest precip more N...something to keep an eye on over next 72 hrs.

No slides on anywhere here, unless it's in the CNF itself, off the roadways. Really has surprised me so far.

Overall, it was the 64th highest recording. SE TN mountains were spared the worst part.

Broke the daily flow record here on the Tellico, prev record was 1962.

That's my biggest concern here...heaviest rate look aimed more south of 40. River here didn't get to recede much and is right at bank full...need the stuff over N Al to weaken.

Columbus, MS just took a direct hit

Widespread damage inside the city...scary video coming in from inside what appears to be a gas station.

Initial reports are Columbus took a direct hit

EAS activated:

Exit 49 on I75 in McMinn Co is closed. Hwy 305 is becoming impassable in places. AFD Pics:

Flash Flood Warning for Roane and Loudon Co now