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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    NAM and 3k still good for the valley
  2. TellicoWx
    Usually a good indicator to how the NAM is gonna go
  3. TellicoWx
    Heavy sleet reported in Camden, TN
  4. TellicoWx
    00z RAP and 18z Euro
  5. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR not blinking on eastern valley so far
  6. TellicoWx
    A lot of bright banding between Clarksville and Jackson
  7. TellicoWx
    Here's a PWS graph from near Paris, TN..looks like a fairly steady few deg drop per hour.
  8. TellicoWx
    They pulled the trigger cause, like MRX, they were counting on the warmth ahead of the front to keep roadways clear..not happening, areas they have fell below 32 are already freezing up.
  9. TellicoWx
    Yeah Tom Meiners with WBBJ shared
  10. TellicoWx
    Nws Memphis issuing a WWA for all middle TN until midnight
  11. TellicoWx
    Storm spotter video out of Lake Co in NW TN showing moderate snow and roadways beginning to turn white.
  12. TellicoWx
    Freezing rain, sleet, snow beginning to stick to elevated surfaces in NW TN
  13. TellicoWx
    22z HRRR doubling totals over NW TN
  14. TellicoWx
    Lots of sleet reports across northern AR with some snow reports mixed in. Bridges are icing up quickly.
  15. TellicoWx
    Intial cold push has entered NW TN, basically extends from Clarksville sw to Humboldt and just north of Memphis...should be a steady gradual drop behind it.
  16. TellicoWx
    Looking at PWS up stream it's acting like a double front, with the true arctic front lagging several hours behind the initial cold push. Energy/lift is riding between the two, more along the true arctic front. Looking at PWAT surging up the Apps (visible in the increase in moisture on the NC side of the TN/NC line as the arctic front is catching the lead push) and isobars backing down the front as it pulls in to the area, piece of energy is riding up the Apps enhancing the lift along east TN increasing the total.
  17. TellicoWx
    So far on obs at the surface behind the front, the dry air is lagging behind by roughly by about 5-6 hrs. My thoughts right now are about an 1" accumulation for central valley north, plateau/foothills Smokies 1"-2", with areas above 1500' (valley/plateau/mtns) having the best chance to over perform.
  18. TellicoWx
    0z GFS says congrats to Knox Co...6.3" lol
  19. TellicoWx
    The common analog on SARS the last several runs is 4/18/69. That system produced an F4 in Greenville, AL killing 2. A total of 13 tornadoes formed, mostly in the F0-F2 range. A 218 mi path was also recorded in southern GA and rated F2. Storm caused 50 injuries, besides the 2 deaths in the F4.
  20. TellicoWx
    Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some.
  21. TellicoWx
    By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co.
  22. TellicoWx
    Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail: Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg 351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky, including the following area, Whitley. * Through Tuesday afternoon * Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine. * If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.
  23. TellicoWx
    Almost time to breakout the purples again unfortunately...12z GEFS
  24. TellicoWx
    Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5"
  25. TellicoWx
    Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.
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