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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
  2. TellicoWx
  3. TellicoWx
    Big jump sw into the central valley
  4. TellicoWx
    Just had a rain shower pass, so what's showing on radar is making it to the ground precip wise.
  5. TellicoWx
    Now that we are starting to enter the nowcast as far as the initial front end and for western areas, 2 things that kinda standout comparing the current radar and 3k NAM. 1) the dry air over SW TN is slightly stronger than modeled and the precip over N GA is ahead of schedule.
  6. TellicoWx
    00z EPS has finally synced up with the OP fairly well on individual members. Shows how the missing data ingest on the 12z run really plays into the chaos theory side of models.
  7. TellicoWx
    Think GFS is still in left field, but also didn't like seeing the NAM speed up either
  8. TellicoWx
    Lol, yeah RGEM says to buy some candles
  9. TellicoWx
    The system sped up a little on the NAM so the moisture return and lift are exiting quicker.
  10. TellicoWx
    Freezing Rain FV3
  11. TellicoWx
    18z FV3
  12. TellicoWx
    FV3 looks like it will throw you a couple inches, still waiting on pivotal to upload for a closer map.
  13. TellicoWx
    Much of west TN on the 18z GFS would prob be some type of winter weather advisory or freezing rain advisory I would assume. That wasn't there either at 12z.
  14. TellicoWx
    18z GFS
  15. TellicoWx
    18z RGEM HR 48 is .10"-.25" Freezing rain with .50" sleet in NE TN...just started changeover with plenty more moisture to come.
  16. TellicoWx
    Hr 42 unfortunately on the NAM is depicting Freezing Rain there.
  17. TellicoWx
    That could definitely explain the spreads on the EPS members then.
  18. TellicoWx
    .90" of freezing rain, then 5"-8" of snow on top of that in NE TN....think I would pass lol.
  19. TellicoWx
    Some ugly Freezing Rain totals on the NAM and 3K
  20. TellicoWx
    3K NAM:
  21. TellicoWx
  22. TellicoWx
    Ensembles basically use chaos theory and test it by change one initial very small variable in the atmosphere to see the effect on a system. The wide range on the EPS members show how dynamic and changing this system still is. From ECMWF: "In a chaotic system, a slight change in the input conditions can lead to a significant change in the output forecast. In a non-chaotic system, small differences in initial conditions only give small differences in output. Hence, it is important in weather forecasting to investigate how sensitive the atmosphere is at any stage to initial conditions. Ensemble forecasting does this by looking at a spread of possible outcomes."
  23. TellicoWx
    Ensembles lose wieght at this range, due to the general area doesn't change as much and we can look at the meso models to pinpoint more localized points within that area...members can't even figure where that area is within 48 hrs.
  24. TellicoWx
    Kind of crazy to have this many different outcomes this close to an event lol
  25. TellicoWx
    12z EPS
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