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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    Anyone else notice the flow seems to be slowing across all models with each run, allowing the surface low to slowly be trending westward? If it keeps backing up, it may get interesting for the Eastern Valley. Last 12 runs of the GFS (NAM, ICON..etc also showing the same trend). Or could have been staring at models for too long lol.
  2. TellicoWx
    For those who may be looking for a positive trend to the GFS, take a look at the soundings over each run for the past 24-36 hrs..it has dwindled away the dry layer each run (good sign if you are looking for overrunning). Known bias during the 3 - 7 day window, GFS normally runs too cold (pushes the cold too far south, too quickly)...Euro during that same window has a tendency to hold the energy too far back (Carvers excellent point over the last day or so). These bias tend to typically be what leads to the NW trend with systems as the events get closer in time, even though they are the results of different corrections (GFS corrects its push, while Euro ejects quicker)....until they start coming into agreement within 48-72 hrs. Each system/scenario is different, but hopefully this is what is occurring now (bias/correction phase). Change in soundings on GFS over the past 24 hrs over the southern valley...
  3. TellicoWx
    Overall I think there is fairly decent enough signals for some type of overrunning event in the Mid South. If a LP happens to pop on any piece of energy that ejects out ahead of the main piece...then it's a whole different ballgame.
  4. TellicoWx
    Couple things I noticed on the 12z suites..the GFS has stronger ridging over the Gulf (which may be acting as a block for the SW ejecting out). On the water vapor you can also see how the GFS is pressing the HP far enough south (when combined with the stronger Gulf ridging) essentially shuts off any return flow and the Pac Jet. The Euro allows the Pac to also gain some moisture off the Gulf and ejects pieces of energy out ahead of the main SW, similar to what Holston was talking about with the previous setups over the last couple weeks.
  5. TellicoWx
    GEFS isn't quite buying what the OP has as well...at this range everything looks decent.
  6. TellicoWx
    Just depends on which is correct with the HP placement...GFS placement would suppress anything toward the gulf..12z Euro looks alot better than GFS so far
  7. TellicoWx
    Just looked at the EPS...give me 28 and I will call it even for the past 5 winters with Mother Nature lol.
  8. TellicoWx
    Impressive rain rates along the line...between 2.5"-3"/hr
  9. TellicoWx
    Current temp map fits your sat from the other day. Downsloping winds today have banked the cold up against the plateau in the western valley.
  10. TellicoWx
    Yeah definitely downslope..almost acts like an inversion. Saw the temp jump and thought WF had crossed.
  11. TellicoWx
    MDT Flash Flood risk for Middle and East Tn:
  12. TellicoWx
    Think the warm front just crossed over lol..went from 40s to 60s in about 20 mins.
  13. TellicoWx
    The concern among alot of mets (including MRX.. the reason they switched from an Areal Flood to Flash Flood Watch) is going up. The first wave has overpefomed even compared to the 06z Euro (Chatt is approaching 1.5"-2" of rain so far). The main show is what's building over MS and the Arklatex. From MRX AFD: For Tonight, this first wave will move east allowing for a lull in the rainfall but another round of jet dynamics along a quasi- stationary over the region for late tonight through Tuesday morning. Models show a regeneration of rainfall coverage and intensity into the flash flood watch area. Favorably high PWs and warm rain process to produce a period of moderate to heavy rains with this next band. There is a good deal of differences on placement and strength of the low-level jet. The NAM is the most aggressive showing strong low-level moisture transport into this boundary while the GFS is weaker. Main question is exactly where this boundary becomes more quasi- stationary. Current thinking is that this boundary will remain across the central/southern areas into the central/southern Tennessee Mountains. Training of moderate to heavy rain is a major concern for these areas as PWs and thermodyanmic profile for favorable warm rain process will be unseasonably high. Given low FFG (saturated ground) and high stream flows, flash flood potential is a major concern through Tuesday morning. Model QPF ensembles depict around 3 inches at CHA and RHP, and 2 inches at TYS through Tuesday. Due to the potential of high rainfall rates and already saturated soils/high stream flows, decided to change the flood watch to a flash flood watch. Several river warnings have been issued as well. 6z Euro:
  14. TellicoWx
    MRX has changed the Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Watch: The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia, including the following areas, in southwest North Carolina, Cherokee and Clay. In east Tennessee, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Monroe, Union, and West Polk. In southwest Virginia, Lee. * Through Tuesday evening * Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts expected. The heaviest rainfall will occur the rest of this afternoon and early evening across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina with another round Tuesday morning area-wide. * This amount of rainfall could cause flooding. People in the watch area should be aware of the possibility of heavy rainfall. Avoid low lying areas...and be careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses.
  15. TellicoWx
    New MCD out for southern valley: Discussion...Moisture is streaming in from the west-southwest within an atmospheric river moving into the region. Precipitable water values are currently 0.8-1.3". Inflow at 850 hPa is west-southwest at 30-50 knots per nearby VAD wind profiles, similar in direction and magnitude to the 850-400 hPa mean wind. MU CAPE remains under 100 J/kg for much of the area, though trends are upward across northern AL. Recent observations show hourly rain totals of 0.15-0.30", roughly 1/5 of the current precipitable water value, due to the lack of instability. With time, hourly rain totals are expected to rise to 0.5-1" as MU CAPE rises to 500+ J/kg across northeast AL and northern GA and convective elements become more common within the mostly stratiform rain areas. Mesoscale guidance generally advertises local amounts ~2", but 3" can't be ruled out during the next several hours. Two week precipitation anomalies are 150-300%+ of average, which has led to fairly saturated soils. Flash flooding is considered possible through 8 pm EDT.
  16. TellicoWx
    High Risk has been extended into NW GA
  17. TellicoWx
    Big question mark to me for today is around storm motion and orientation return flow. If the motion/return sets up more oriented ENE across N. AL then the results will be lowered (storms firing/training south of the area cutting off some of the flow from the gulf, plus a downslope component off the plateau)...HRRR/GFS. If it is orientated more NNE across N. AL, then the return up the southern valley will be greater and minimal downsloping (Euro Op/NAM).
  18. TellicoWx
    Comparing the NAM, 3k, GFS, HRRR, Euro..with what has currently fallen here (.13). The Euro was the only one to have the rainfall into SE Monroe at this point.
  19. TellicoWx
    High Risk out now to almost Chatt...WPC says there is still some uncertainty as to where to put the High Risk, could be moved north or south in further updates. For SE TN: Further downstream we have a Moderate risk across portions of northern GA into southeast TN and the far western Carolinas. Significant flooding is still possible here today/tonight. Slightly lower QPF and the expectation of weaker rates this far northeast, precludes the need for a High risk here. However, a Moderate Risk does cover these areas, which is still a significant and potentially life threatening risk level.
  20. TellicoWx
    This is definitely a repeating pattern I wouldn't wanna see (last week), just from a rainfall stand point. But, unfortunately, I think you may end up correct.
  21. TellicoWx
    SPC Day 4:
  22. TellicoWx
    Not surprising, a Flood Watch has been posted for south of I40. With area streams currently stressed (Tellico River is still running 200% above normal and is barely falling now) plus the snowpack up along the mountaintops that will melt and add to the totals, if any members (or family/friends) live in a flood prone area/ or potential to be cutoff by flooding across southeast TN...would be putting together some form of evacuation plan now. Add in SPC now has a 30% Day 4 severe near Chatt, looks like its gonna be a rough weather week.
  23. TellicoWx
    Wow...looks like extremely low visibility on the cam at Chickumaga Dam
  24. TellicoWx
    Interstate turning into a mess...I75 at the 64 Bypass
  25. TellicoWx
    I24 on Monteagle is now covered, cars starting to slide off the roadway
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