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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Cut qpf in half
  2. TellicoWx
    00z 3k dropped totals as well over the eastern valley
  3. TellicoWx
    00z NAM cut totals compared to 18z
  4. TellicoWx
    1.5" to 2.5" is a fairly big jump..thanks
  5. TellicoWx
    What was the prior mean?
  6. TellicoWx
    The lower the better lol..this isn't a warm adv system so I would be comfortable around 24/25 for sure (quicker onset for snow plus could become road issue)
  7. TellicoWx
    18z Euro:
  8. TellicoWx
    Dont quite remember a spread this big on the EPS 24hrs or less out....0" to 6" lol
  9. TellicoWx
    Sounds right...PWS in Athens is 49/31
  10. TellicoWx
    So seems most people are running ~3° colder currently on dews vs the coldest model. Yeah I definitely think you guys go WWA if radiational cooling stays on track.
  11. TellicoWx
    Will be interesting to see play out tonight...example: Athens area bottoms DP at 32 overnight on 18z NAM
  12. TellicoWx
    Interesting...NAM had 42/27 for northern plateau @6 cst
  13. TellicoWx
    18z NAM sounding @7p for the same general area...DP already below sounding
  14. TellicoWx
    Dew points starting to crash here along the southern foothills..I agree, if the DP can get down around ~25 (no waa with system) plus radiational cooling and the inverted trof (may aide rates)..there's slot of uncertainty if the models are right about the temps..some leeway to go colder imo. PWS in Loudon showing the DP crash moving down the valley
  15. TellicoWx
    18z GFS sounding went from 42 to 36 at surface vs 12z due to more moisture/evap cooling..still a little too warm (for southern valley)
  16. TellicoWx
    18z Goofy starting to join the party
  17. TellicoWx
    Yeah, I would cut the NAM totals by 1/2 to 1/3..so 1"-2" in central/southern valley (2"-3" in those areas where ridge tops get to 1200'-1500' plus). Last weeks soundings had Chatt around 32/33 (fairly spot on with actual observed)..it was close enough to 32 for higher rates to impact the roads. 34/35 is just too high for rates to cool, still could see shaded areas of roadways try to accumulate.
  18. TellicoWx
    Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point.
  19. TellicoWx
    Only ones I would think could, an uneducated guess, is 3k, HRRR, so on...just due to their very low resolutions
  20. TellicoWx
    I wonder if the modeling is picking up on that or if the rates could go a little higher than currently modeled...just not sure subtle inversions are built into the algorithm
  21. TellicoWx
    About the best setup statewide we can get, weak energy passing to the south (no ugly waa) but just strong enough to transport the moisture and lift
  22. TellicoWx
    Agree, soundings are very borderline south of 40 in the valley *as far as impacts to the roadways
  23. TellicoWx
    Looks like maybe even a tad better to me
  24. TellicoWx
    Looking at the soundings across all models for eastern valley..NAM is coldest at the surface (would be similar roads to what Chatt experienced last week), while rest sit around 34-35 with the below freezing mark down to around 1500'.
  25. TellicoWx
    12z Euro
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